Why is it not meaningful, especially when there’s no additional data to explain it? The disparate search statistics and disparate contraband statistics, even the extreme example that you offered, indicate disparate treatment by race that is not warranted by evidence. The Ferguson PD are either more likely than the evidence suggests to search black motorists, or they are less likely than the evidence suggests to search white motorists.
Older people also die more often, which would have the opposite effect. I don’t think this rapid change tells us much at all without further data.
Here’s the passage from the proposed rules of engagement that is in question:
I think people who throw water bottle at police should be arrested. I think #15 is implying the opposite position, though there is a gap between ‘use of force’ and arrested so you can interpret that both ways. Do you really think it’s a stretch that whoever propogated that RoE thinks that throwing water bottles should not be an arrestable offense?
You’re conflating the act of stopping someone and the act of searching them for contraband. I’m not defending any particular activity here, but the way you’ve constructed the argument is misleading. Population B could commit 95% of all moving violations, and be in possession of 5% of contraband, while Population W could commit 5% of moving violations, and be in possession of 95% of contraband. If we assume that all are searched at the same rate, that would yield similar disparate results (one population being searched more and in possession of less contraband) and be the correct outcome even though it appears disproportionate.
They are not all searched at the same rate. Black motorists in Ferguson are significantly more likely to be searched than white motorists, despite the fact that these searches of black motorists result in less contraband than the searches of white motorists.
It seems pretty clear to me that these proposed RoE are suggesting that (according to those who wrote them) it would be wise for cops to balance the desire to arrest the bottle thrower against the risk of escalating violence and increasing harm if they decide to wade in with batons and use force against a crowd of protesters just to arrest one bottle thrower.
Basically “yes, he should be arrested, but not if the only way to arrest him is to risk a riot and risk harming multiple protesters”.
Sure, it says that “Every attempt will be made to pinpoint arrests so that only individual lawbreakers will be arrested,” and that “Police will be instructed to be tolerant of more minor lawbreaking (such as thrown water bottles) when deciding whether to escalate the use of force.” So, pinpoint arrests for individual lawbreakers like water bottle throwers, and please don’t beat them or otherwise escalate your use of force when arresting them for relatively minor offenses.
Because suppose in theory that there are 8.74 times as many blacks as whites between 18 and 29, and 4.67 times as many who are over 40, and so on, then the searches could all be proportional, and the overall imbalance explained by the fact that people between 18 and 29 are far more likely to be searched than people over 40 (and within “over 40”, people over 50 are less likely to be searched than those from 40 to 50 and so on), then the entire difference (or at least a very big part of it) could be the ages of the respective populations.
So what?
You have incomplete data, and don’t know if it’s warranted.
I think it does, and I imagine you have no experience with such situations. But I’m not going to argue about this further.
If this is so, it still doesn’t explain why the black motorists that were searched were significantly less likely to have contraband than the white motorists that were searched.
Those other reasons, especially “investigative”, sound like the ones that would be used if there is racial bias at work here. Not that this definitely explains it, but it is consistent with the hypothesis that some part of this disparity is explained by (some) Ferguson cops treating black people differently than white people because they’re black.
What sort of data could possibly suggest that it’s warranted to search black people more than white people if these searches result in significantly less contraband?
You mean demographics? Emigration? What do you mean by “such situations”? Do you have this experience?
You often seem to abandon arguments when they’re challenged.
You missed the point. You are conflating pulling someone over and the results of a search. Results of a search are not the basis for pulling someone over.
In other words, maybe one group are just crappy drivers. This is hypothetical speculation on my part.
Cops don’t search everyone they pull over. The statistics show that they are both more likely to pull over black motorists, and more likely to search black motorists, despite the fact that these searches result in less contraband than the searches of white motorists.
You’re conflating pulling over motorists and searching motorists again. In other words, you’re using the resulting less contraband from black motorists as evidence that black motorists are being pulled over in greater proportion than their amount of moving violations. Those are two separate things and it’s misleading to blend them in the way you are doing.
When the alternative is increased mayhem, then yes. Don’t arrest someone for bottle-throwing if the only way to arrest them will likely incite more violence, more harm, and more mayhem.
Sounds good to me (if by “produce” you mean point and say “this is the bottle thrower”, as opposed to protesters engaging in an arrest).
Let’s just talk about the searches. Black motorists are more likely to be searched than white motorists, and these searches result in less contraband found.
Which is bullshit. If one person in the “protest” starts attacking the police, and the rest don’t immediately get out of the fucking way and/or hand him over, they should be treated as though they too are attacking the police.
Yes, there’s such a thing as legitimate protest. The “protests” so far in Ferguson, and the ones being planned are no such thing. They involve intentionally breaking laws, and they are attempting to persuade the police to ignore that. I would hope they do the opposite, and enforce a zero tolerance policy on any lawbreaking by the protesters. Including jaywalking if they do this nonsense they suggest about laying in the street pretending to be dead.
It’s be a shame if some of them were accidentally shot and killed, but at least the medical examiner would have one less job to do.
Tossing a plastic bottle doesn’t have to be considered as an attack.
This sort of blanket statement suggests to me that you have no idea what’s actually going on in Ferguson… seriously? None of the protests are “legitimate protests”? There are no possible legitimate grievances, such as the disparate treatment in traffic stops?
Right. It doesn’t. You would need other arguments for that. Fortunately I suggested one earlier.
It could also be that black kids are more likely to have warrants out for their arrest. Or anything.
This is not my cause. I’m just commenting on your inferences from the data. If you can’t find other data, that doesn’t make your inferences more sound.
Experience with areas that have undergone rapid demographic change. And yes, I do.
I’ve also been accused of the opposite, what do you know.
As I’ve posted repeatedly here, my point in participating here is my amusement, and this is sometimes reflected in what I chose to post about.
Long drawn out arguments about matters that are obvious and well known, but are being disputed by ignorant people whose opinion on any and all topics is solely determined by how it aligns with their ideology sometimes fails to make the cut.
Your suggestion didn’t offer any exculpation. Even if your suggestion were totally accepted, black motorists are still being searched more than the data suggests that they should be searched (or white motorists are being searched less than the data suggests that the should be searched).
If black motorists (or young motorists) are twice as likely to have contraband, then perhaps they should be searched twice as much (for example). But if they’re searched 5 times as much, then that is unwarranted and suggests bias.
The Ferguson PD has offered no exculpatory data. That suggests that they’re not interested or not able to exculpate themselves.
Do tell.
Whaddaya know? We have something in common!
It’s not “obvious and well known” that any rapid demographic change necessarily tells you the ages of those who moved in and out of any particular area.
I’m sure Steophan considers a water bottle to be a deadly weapon.
Unlike, you know, the assault rifle that a protester was pointing at federal agents outside the Bundy Ranch. Remember when his follow protesters turned him in?