According to Search, this is the first and only post that Forum mod TubaDiva has made in Elections.
If I’m wrong, I’ll be very, very careful not to berate myself!
Newt has gained a lot of momentum in SC and 538 now gives him a 62% chance of winning. From what I have read, Romney didn’t perform well in the debate so there is a definite chance that he could lose this primary.
Does that change the fundamentals of the race? Maybe. If Newt wins SC and knock Santorum out of the race and he has a fighting chance. I think there is about 35-40% of Republican voters who strongly dislike Romney and who would rally behind someone like Newt if he is the last conservative standing. Ron Paul has a hard core of around 10% and he is probably not going anywhere. Romney perhaps has 35% who are solidly behind him. That leaves around 15-20% and my guess is that Romney has a better chance of getting them but they aren’t quite in his pocket.
I think the crucial issue is whether Newt can make headway in the invisible primary if he wins SC. Can he get endorsements from high-profile Republicans? Will the more conservative Republican money men give him money? This is where he may lose out. Newt had a lot of momentum in early December but he couldn’t seem to translate that into money or endorsements and he was beaten back into fourth place. I suspect a lot of conservative-leaning GOP insiders who prefer Newt to Romney ideologically just aren’t convinced he can win the general and are holding back. Newt will have to change their minds which will be hard but winning SC gives him a shot.
Shucks, he was.
That’s what I get for reading posts when I have a fever (I have bronchitis and I’m on about half power here all the way around).
Apologies to dorsk188.
Never mind.
I think it’s really dorsk188 who should be apologizing to dorsk188.
Silver’s model now gives Gingrich an 82% chance of winning SC tomorrow.
A few days ago it was 90% Mitt. Amazing.
Yeah it’s been a spectacular turnaround and it looks like Newt is going to win in SC which will give him huge momentum for Florida. Right now according 538, Romney is up 46-25 but in December it was Newt who was up by a similar amount so these numbers could change very quickly. A crucial variable is whether Santorum will be knocked out in this primary. Paul is presumably going to go on till the end but he isn’t competing for Newt’s voters the way Santorum is. Plus Newt will do even better in a three-man debate when he can focus on attacking Romney instead of squabbling with Santorum.
It’s hard to say what Santorum’s calculation is. He is holding up pretty well at 15 and could conceivably come in third. Will that be enough for him to continue? He is probably running out of money and Newt will be the clear anti-Romney if he wins SC and will have much better national numbers than Santorum.
The other variable is how the GOP establishment will react. They successfully orchestrated a beatdown in December but can they do it again? Newt has shown a lot of resilience and he taps into the Republican base’s psyche in ways that Romney can only dream of. At the same time he is a preposterous choice for a general election with terrible favorability numbers.
No worries, but I will admit to a slight rear iris puckering at the initial rebuke. 
It’s the day before the Florida primary, and Silver has Romney at a 97% chance of winning with Newt at 3%, current support is:
Romney 44.7% with a range of 33-52%
Gingrich 29.4% with a range of 20-38%
Santorum 13.2% with a range of 7-21%
Paul at 11.1% with a range of 5-18%
All of this swinging might be pleasing to Newt but it’s making me seasick. 
I think Paul is in for the long haul, just to be a cantankerous bastard and put his imprimatur on the race. I’m going to guess that Santorum drops out if he pulls less than 10% in Florida and says he wants to spend time with his sick daughter. Nobody is going to blame him for putting family first.
Good point–that might be a good excuse for him to drop out without looking like a failure.
I will. If your kid is more important to you than the fate of the country, that’s fine, but don’t run for president. If, like Lieberman, your religion is so important that you can’t operate a phone on Friday nights, that’s fine, but don’t run for president.
Good thing he’d be dropping out then.
How’d those predictions work out (so far)?
Precisely why you should take these early predictions months before the actual election with a grain of salt.
And I still hold to my first post on this thread; Gingrich is not going to win the Republican party nomination.
Way to go out on a limb there Omg! Folks have only been saying Mitt was the nominee for 3 years now… 
Then you’re wrong. His daughter has a severe illness and she’s not going to live very long. You can’t reproach him for spending time with her when she’s in the hospital and expect to be taken seriously.
That looks just like a Romney style flip-flop; Don’t believe any predictions but believe my prediction.
LOL!