Which sometimes (and more likely than not) will be before the election, but 1/7 of the time the election will be on the 2nd, and the first Sunday is the 7th.
And yet fivethirtyeight is not treating the ABC/WaPo poll as simply an outlier:
That said, ABC News/Washington Post is definitely an outlier; no other poll has shown Biden with that large a lead in Wisconsin since June. (Then, it was a Hodas & Associates poll sponsored by the conservative Restoration PAC that put Biden 17 points ahead.)
On the other hand, this poll doesn’t exactly exist in a vacuum. Biden has recently gotten a lot of very strong polls from some of the states that border Wisconsin. [bolding mine]
Iowa:
" Last week, the A+ pollsters Monmouth University and Siena College/The New York Times Upshot found similar margins. Iowa, remember, is a fairly red state that Trump carried by 9 points in 2016. And for the first time, our forecast now gives Biden a better chance than Trump of winning the state, although it’s still basically a coin flip
Minnesota:
- Yesterday, Gravis Marketing released a survey of Minnesota in which Biden led Trump by 14 points. Biden’s chances of winning Minnesota have now reached an all-time high of 94 in 100.
Michigan:
On Sunday, we also got a Gravis poll of Michigan that gave Biden a 13-point lead. That’s on top of last week’s Fox News poll of Michigan showing Biden 12 points ahead. And this morning, ABC News/Washington Post also released a Michigan poll giving Biden a smaller 7-point lead. Overall, our forecast gives Biden a 94 in 100 chance of winning the Wolverine State
Don’t simply dismiss the ABC/WaPo poll as an outlier. There’s more to it than that.
A pertinent xkcd from today about the election and time change: Fall Back
“I don’t think the endless 24-hour news cycle has been good for either of us.”
“Well, then I have good news about Sunday!”
“Ughhh…”
It’s known that the +17 likely overstates things, since they oversampled Clinton voters significantly, or at least people that claimed that they voted for her. Apparently it’s more like +12 accounting for that. That puts in basically within 2 MoE of the other one, which is reconcilable to say the real margin is +8/9.
Do you have a link to the 2016 ABC/WaPo poll that oversampled Clinton voters, and could you please explain why you’re so sure they’re making the same mistake now?
FiveThirtyEight is pretty good at teasing out that sort of thing. If you haven’t read their article on the Wisconsin poll, you really should.
The sample in THIS poll happened to include more people who (at least claim to) have voted for Clinton in 2016 than you’d expect, based on the proportion of actual Clinton voters in 2016.
I’ll let someone else find the cite; I’m just clarifying what was meant by “oversampled.”
I suspect that Cheato has lost Florida with his drumbeat of “don’t worry be happy” dismissal of the COVID pandemic (and the obvious “sacrifice Granny to the golden calf of Wall Street” corollary).
89%, and the top maps now have 2 red instead of 3
Brian
For a moment it was Trump 10% and Biden 89% (I think the threshold between “favored” and “clearly favored” will be when Biden hits 90% or 91%)
I admit, as silly as it is, I am eagerly awaiting the moment (if it comes) when Biden becomes “clearly favored” to win.
Me, too, but just don’t let it make you complacent!
It was mentioned in a podcast –
50-54 Toss Up
55-69 Slightly Favored
70-89 Favored
90-97 Clearly Favored
98+ Very Likely
Brian
Two weeks after the election:
News commentator: “With most of the in-person, advance and mail-in ballots counted, it looks like Joe Biden has captured over 400 electoral votes.”
Nervous Democrats: “We can’t get complacent!”
This is the right attitude.
I will be happy to be accused of complacency… once President Biden is sworn in.
Ain’t gonna be complacent till he’s sworn in.
(Am hoping to be significantly relieved by sometime next week, though.)
ETA: And have already voted.
I agree that until he is sworn in, I will be very nervous
Did you guys see H. Clinton is in the electoral college for NY? She gets to vote Biden!
Do not become complacent even after Biden is sworn in. We have four years of metaphorically going house to house clearing Nazi cells lurking within our government.
This. In addition, making up for Pennsylvania is harder than making up for Wisconsin. Making up for PA would take something like AZ and NC, while making up for WI would take AZ or NC.