In addition, the trending has been towards Biden over the last four weeks. It was going the other way last time. Also, there are significantly fewer undecideds now so the error bars should be smaller.
And the MAGAsphere’s “make the other guy radioactive” tactics aren’t getting any traction outside the MAGAsphere.
But, but, there’s e-mails again! Why isn’t that working?!?
Did you even read the OP that I wrote?
Holy shit! Clinton lost? Big, if true.
Too much of a downer.
The “fewer undecideds” is a huge factor. In 2016, the last minute bullshit FBI “Investigation Announcement” flipped quite a few of these. No such thing is happening this year.
Also also; 2016 turnout was 55.7%. This year is projected to be significantly higher. Higher turnout will generally favor the Democrats (if all the votes are actually counted)
Also also also; in 2016, 5.7% of the vote went to “other” candidates. I predict that will be smaller this year - closer to the 1.4% in the 2008 election. I’d say closer to 2%. In my opinion, in 2016, many of these were folks that hated Hilary enough to vote “other”. This year, those folks will not make that mistake again.
Well, there is the incredible increase in the number of covid cases in the US; that might move the needle some. In the last 7 days before the election, more than half a million Americans will be diagnosed with Covid-19. Today we had over 91,000 new cases.
I had a thought today: can you imagine how kids 14–17 feel right now about living in the US? Can you imagine the anger that will seethe if Trump is re-elected and continues to do nothing about the pandemic, ensuring that these kids aren’t just robbed of their environment, they are robbed of their very futures? The backlash that comes to this round of GOP shenanigans is going to be tremendous when it manifests.
The crazy part is - Trump is actually killing his own supporters by getting them to congregate in large groups without masks, in contravention of solid advice from medical experts.
He’s killing his own voters.
When he’s not freezing or baking them.
It flipped me. I was still a devoted Republican at the time but had decided to bite the bullet and vote for one of my least favorite candidates, HRC. Then the investigation announcement gave me pause. I figured they must REALLY know something bad to telegraph an investigation so close to the actual election. Fooled me.
Yes, but not before November 3rd!
I keep telling Republicans that Trump wrote a book called "To Serve Mankind but no knows whats in it. Because it is a cookbook!!! Can you imagine what a good episode of The Twilight Zone Trump’s presidency would make?
Its ratings would be yuuuuge.
In related news, I wandered over to the Princeton Election Consortium. You might all recall Sam Wang, who runs it, got famous in 2016 for saying it was over and he’d eat a bug if Trump won, and that Nate Silver was a stupid idiot for giving Trump a chance and clearly some baseball nerd wasn’t smart enough to understand math.
He no longer will commit to percentages, but if you read his graphs, he’s got Biden somewhere between 95 and 99 percent. Sam, Sam, Sam.
Anthony Fremont as an adult with severely diminished powers.
Mahaloth, I don’t recall which thread it was, but I picked up the Katherine Stewart book you recommended from the library yesterday. Looking forward to reading it in good old hardcover printed fashion, thank you again for recommending it.
Did he eat the bug tho?
Yep.
I win!
@Northern_Piper: I like your new icon.
His Trumply Dudeliness was here in So FL campaigning until yesterday. Not much evidence he made a dent.