Well, so long as it doesn’t follow something resembling the LBAR model, my trip might be ok. Just have to wait and see.
Dr. James Sobol, who is a consultant for WDBO, actually yelled at the morning talk show host for looking at the models. He said they just confuse people, and that they shouldn’t be used for planning purposes.
For now, I shall look only at the NOAA track. I was reading LoganDear’s post and I started giggling. In other words, the experts have just a vague idea of where this thing will hit, and even then, they won’t know until the last minute. There’s too many variables.
Maybe in 20 years we’ll be able to predict within 10 miles that it will make landfall at 11:28:17 am on Thursday, but until then…hunker down! 
Umm, the NOAA model is based heavily on the computer models. Usually when the models shift, the NOAA shifts their track too.
They have actually gotten much much better at forecasting the track of the storms in the last 5 years. It’s the intensity they have the real trouble in forecasting. You should have been here in FL 20 yrs ago, they had no idea about nothin’.
However as I said in my first post to this thread, late season storms are the hardest to predict.
Don’t forget about the St. Pete dopers. If ya’ll get hit right at the top of TB I guarantee my house has already taken a reaming.
bouv, if it’s not looking to hit until Sunday night you should be okay.
Now that I look at the NOAA website, I don’t think it was them that predicted through TB. All I remember hearing between the news channels I’ve been keeping up with has been that the longer it takes to turn, the more north it may hit, and more north = closer to me = crappy.
Ah well. I guess we won’t know much until Saturday. And it’s such a beautiful day outside too. Sparse clouds, blue skies, sunny…maybe I should take a picture. Time for work.
-foxy
Uh…Look again. :eek: I’m in there sommers too case anyone was wunnerin.
Wait and see…
I’m kinda hoping those yellow, purple and light green lines are all way off base.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Love your new sig line! 
Aw, Christ, here we go again. I’m getting sick of this crap. We lost the roof on the house last year to Jeannie, or Jeanne, or whatever the hell it was. (Boyfriend’s got a house in the lake area down there.) Terrible water damage, trees down, you name it.
Thing is, do we go down and sit in the house and maybe get evacuated anyhow or stay up here and worry? Best thing to do, I guess, is just watch the weather reports and hope the new roof holds if the storm comes our way. Luckily a neighbor calls once a week to let us know what’s going on down there. Maybe the storm will take a different path.
From what I’ve heard, the models that are predicting landfall farther north aren’t the most reliable. The LBAR has looked like that for the past couple of days. I’ve heard the A98 is practically useless (don’t know why though! Maybe Poonther can help out with this one), & I’ve also heard the BAMs are less reliable, though I can’t recall why or where I heard that. So, yeah. That doesn’t say much, but maybe it’s a little consolation to you, Shibb. If that doesn’t help, here’s a more optimistic graphic. 
And if neither of those help, maybe it will be of some consolation that there’s supposed to be cool air moving in after the hurricane is gone! We’re talkin’ 50’s & 60’s here people!! Good stuff!
I’ve just heard Jeb has issued a “state of emergency.” True?
Just found some info on those models from storm2k forums:
BAMD – deep layer Beta Advection Model. Good for strong storms in the lower tropics (south of 20N latitude where steering currents remain constant). It doesn’t emply much, if any, physics to predict changes in steering currents. Because of that, it shoudl not be used where fronts/trofs highs/lows move on by (north of 20N latitude. Never use it in the Gulf or western Atlantic.
LBAR – Limited BARotropic. Limited alright, limited in its ability to forecast tropical cyclones. Generally ignore it.
Oh, looky, here’s info on the A98 model (in case anyone cares):
Because we believe it will hit “around” Fort Myers, my darling Marcie and I went to Cape Corral this morning to rescue her father and mother. We left Cape Corral at about 9:00 AM and arrived in Seminole at 3:15 PM. It is almost exactly 125 miles from our house to her parent’s place; normally a two-hour trip. When traffic moved at all on Interstate 75, top speed was maybe 40 MPH; mostly it was around 20 MPH.
Interstate 75 was clogged just below Sarasota and at Bradenton it became a three-lane parking lot. When we came to a complete stand-still we were lucky enough to be beside an exit. We went through Bradenton to US 41, which becomes US 19 and from there to Interstate 275. After that, it was clear sailing. However, if people evacuate Fort Myers, Cape Corral, and / or Naples tomorrow, heaven help them.
Now I have to hope that Wilma baby doesn’t come up here; her parents will be really miffed if we took them from safety to hazard—I guess I will be, too.
Yes, and there’s 7700 National Guard troops standing by.
Latest is that the storm “missed the bus” and is stalled over Cancun and Cozumel for the next 48 hours. Those poor folks are going to get drenched. Then, hopefully weaker, it will hit Florida on Monday after another (jet stream? cold front?) picks it up. But the forecasters are stumped, because they don’t know what it’s going to do.
On a lighter note (!), I was home sick yesterday and watching The Weather Channel. They were in Key West, interviewing a woman about the upcoming Fantasy Fest. The caption read “Sante Fe Fest.”
A little dyslexia, anyone?
I guess I shouldn’t have made that “bad hair” comment about the weather channel yesterday because last night our outdoor gig got rained on for about an hour and I was the one sporting the rain soaked bad hair.
Really the hype is just driving me crazy. I know it’s important to be prepared but I’ve also been through this before where it’s a big panic about nothing.
Actually, not that I think about it, I’ll take a big panic about nothing over the mess we had last year.
OK, Florida, how many are going to see the Chiefs/Dolphins tonight?
Hold still, let me count you…
1…2…3…47…
Sounds about right.
My kids’ schools built some “storm days” into the calendar this year. The deal was, if they missed days because of hurricanes, they could make them up on those days, and if they hadn’t missed any school, they would get those days off. Coincidentally, this coming Monday is the first storm day.
What’s this I heard, there’s already a Tropical Storm Alpha forming?
We’re good as long as we don’t get to Omega.
Also, I notice that there is no afternoon update to the storm tracker yet. Has this one been officially cancelled?
A friend who lives in Fort Myers just emailed me. According to her, Fort Myers Beach and Sanibel Island will be evacuating tomorrow.