Well, at least all the trees backyard were cut down last year. I wonder if Mom has asked someone to check the roof yet - we lost some shingles each time a hurricane went through central Florida, and sprung a new leak.
Holy moly! Cat 5! Looks like the renovations to the Keys house are going to be put on hold. I told them to wait til after hurricane season!
Decent news from the NHC:
Here is a link to the area forecast discussion for Tampa (see the drop down list for other locations), which has this to say:
My god. I know what I’m doing this weekend…
-foxy
Honey, you were my plans. Sheesh. Ungrateful men.
-foxy
What the heck?
What did Florida do this time?
My wife and I have an anniversary trip scheduled for Tampa 10/28 through 10/31 (with a wicked costume party right in the middle).
I called today to ask for trip cancellation insurance and was actually laughed at (which was exactly the response I expected, but I was hoping against hope).
Tiny little eye, and it appears to have just made a loop (aka: trochoidal oscillations)! Good graphic - I think this graphic is live, so check it out while you can.
Also wanted to point out - we have to look at the “cone” of probability, not just the line. Looking at my homeland & the places I love engulfed in that cone is far from comforting right now. 
I awtched some weather channel today, and it seems like if it hits the Tampa area that it will do so Sunday morning. Hmm…the odds of my plane getting all fucked up are increasing.
Here’s the latest computermodel maps
Way too early to say it’s a trend, sometimes the models do odd things on just one or two runs, but this is the first significant deviation in Wilma’s path I’ve seen in the past 48 hours. While the yellow line, BAMM isn’t a very good model to follow, the red line, GDFL has perfomed very well this year including forecasting Rita and Katrina.
Also notice that the blue line NOGAPS is the most northerly track, but it’s also the oldest run model.
Stay tuned…
That’s right next door!
The GDFL track doesn’t forecast very far, does it?
We’re officially on an accelerated schedule at work. Fortunately I’ve met all of my deadlines so I can help my coworkers with their assignments. Frances shut us down for a week last year, so we’re anticipating that this storm will do the same.
This is the first time my mom has encouraged me not to evacuate for a storm. It might get closer to her in Hernando than it does to me in West Palm!
I’m thinking my uncle’s flight out of Tampa this weekend might be cancelled.
It forecasts for the same amount of time, but doesn’t forecast Wilma moving as fast, apparently. Each of those little white blocks marks the forecast position every 24 hours.
Ack, posted too soon!
The GFDL had forecast earlier that in 5 days the storm would be near Maine. Now it’s got it near Cuba! That’s quite a shift! According to the NHC discussion, whatever the Low (now near the Great Lakes region) does will help determine which way Wilma goes. The farther east the hurricane moves, the more likely she is to miss “connection” with this low. Then what? Who knows?! There’s still a LOT of room for error here.
I’m waiting to see how close to Tampa Bay it’s going to get. The weather channel chart shows it basically going right up the bay. My dad wants me to leave if they start discussing evacuations at all, but we won’t really know anything until Friday or Saturday. Sigh. Hurry up and wait.
-foxy
(To the tune of the Flintstones theme song)
Wilma! Deadly Wilma!
She’s the biggest storm in history!
From the eastern ocean,
She’s gonna tear down every tree.
That’s right, flood that family down the street!
Through the courtesy of increased heat.
When you’re down with Wilma,
You’d better wear your flannel.
The Weather Channel
Will have a gay old time!
Latest advisory has it slowing down and not hitting Florida until Sunday.
My parents (on Sanibel) were supposed to fly to Oregon on Saturday and spend a week with my aunt and uncle on the coast. Now they’ve got two hotel reservations - one across the causeway and one in Tampa. It was three of four days before they were allowed back on the island after Charley last year, and they came close to moving. Maybe this will be the one that drives them back north permanently, if it’s as bad as it looks.
Latest computer models take it through the Keys, but the forecast track still puts landfall just south of Marco Island and Naples.
We won’t have a real idea on this one until after it turns, maybe some time on Saturday morning. Even then it will be iffy, but we’ll know what the intial turn was and where the prevailing weather should take it from there.
The NHC is expecting Wilma to continue WNW then NW over the next 24 hours, then if/when she turns, we should get a better idea of where she’ll be going. I keep hearing that the longer it takes her to turn, the more likely she is to make landfall farther north (say, Tampa - AHH!). By this time, she should definitely be moving faster.
OTOH, Monroe County (the Keys) is delaying mandatory evac for residents another 24 hours. It was supposed to be issued today.
From the NHC discussion at 11am, the models show slower recurvature and acceleration (the GFDL has straightened back out as of last night), and the threat is still focused from Central Fl to the Keys. They’re predicting that once this eyewall replacement cycle is done, she may re-strengthen to Cat 5 before hitting the Yucatan (by tomorrow afternoon). If she’s moving slower over the Yucatan, the interaction with land should cause her to weaken significantly for landfall in Florida. Let’s hope so. I hate to think of the people on the Yucatan peninsula that may have to have to deal with a Cat 5 hurricane. I hope they’re evacuating safely there. They’ve had plenty of time, that’s for sure.
You can really see the eyewall replacement cycle going on if you look at the IR images on NOAA’s website (real-time, again). Pretty cool.
Here’s the current thinking on where they THINK Wilma will go. Notice it’s the 72hr (3 days) and 96hr (4 day) positions. Looks to be going in as Cat 3 (Everglades City area) and out as a Cat 1 (Stuart area.) Also this map shows the wind fields associated w/her. There’s a guide to click to the left to explain what they are showing.
All the models except one show her going under the Big Lake. Looks like the LBAR model has it out for Shibb and Ivylass.
Really ladyfoxfyre TWC has Wilma going up Tampa Bay? That’s odd…
I hope my big haired Jersey MIL in WPB doesn’t break one of her long glamour nails while having to hang on to the stucco of her house. 