What percentage of your trips to the casino do you feel that you have been ahead? It seems to me that it’s over 50% of the time but I’m sure that’s just what the casinos want me to believe.
Poll coming.
Of course it is. You do realize the whole point of casinos is that the house always wins in the long run, right?
It is a smart casinogoer who realizes this, and expects to lose. It is an even smarter one who attempts to get as many free drinks as possible in while being fleeced.
I predict that people will not pay attention to the “at any time” part of this question since it’s in the poll and not in the OP. I put 75% to 100%, by the way (I mostly play poker when I go, which isn’t often).
I voted 75%-100%. I’ve been to a casino and gambled at most four or five times in my life, but each time I’ve been ahead at some stage.
I’ve been to a casino to gamble only five times in my life and i’ve come out ahead by around 75-200 bucks every time. Because i stop playing when i’m ahead. It’s not that unlikely that you will find yourself ahead at some point, the trick is stopping when it seems like you are “on a roll”.
I might’ve misunderstood, but I don’t think it changes my answer much, anyway. Is the OP essentially asking: Number of trips you’ve been up at least one time, divided by the total number of casino visits made? There have been times when I’ve given the dealer money, and not won a single hand the whole time, making the game extremely quick. But for most times, I think you will be ahead at least once, even if it’s just that you won the very first hand and nothing afterwards.
Here in Nevada within walking distance of casinos where we often have a 99¢ breakfast and then drop a dollar in the penny video poker we get about a 94% return according to the gaming commission. I have no reason to believe that is not within 2% of correct.
I would walk to the casino, but the weather forecast tells me there is a 100% chance of precipitation. I won’t bother turning my head to look out the window, but I am 85% certain that they are correct. There is a 99% probability that I will spend the next hour or two on the couch.
I’m almost always up at some point. Very rarely do I sit down and am completely unable to get up at all. My bottom line wins are a little different though, as I don’t know how to quit when I’m ahead.
Yes, this is what I was trying to ask.
ISTM that even if you were playing a perfectly fair game with 1:1 odds, the percentage of trips that had you had been ahead at some point would be about 50%. It just doesn’t seem that way to me.
Yes, I understand that the casino always wins in the long run.
Another vote for 75-100%. Seems like I’m almost always up at least a little bit at some point during a casino run. Maybe as little as $10-$25, but that would count as I understand the OP.
Arguably, I might always be “ahead at some point” for certain values of ahead. Pretty much every time I go, I have free slot play on my players card, and often some free bets at table games, too. As I usually use the free slot play first, when I start the slot session, I have all the money I brought still in my pocket, plus some amount of value on the slot machine.
0%
I’ve been to casinos, just never gambled in them.
99%. I almost always walk out of a casino with more money than I walked in with.
I work at one. 
This isn’t even close to true. Image a fair game, like a coin flip. 50% of the time you will be ahead after the very first flip! If you are unlucky on that flip, you have a 25% chance of being ahead after just two more flips. That’s already 62.5%, and we’ve only finished three flips.
If your session lasts for 200 coin flips, you will be ahead at least once in 94.4% of sessions. If the flip is unfair, it won’t change this much. Giving yourself a 49% chance of winning instead of 50% means that a 200-flip session will have you ahead at least once 92.3% of the time.
(Incidentally, I voted 75%-100%. I also only play poker.)
Since I usually arrive in Las Vegas in the afternoon, I’ll often start by playing slot machines. If I play the penny video slots, I’m bound to get up at least by a small amount. I don’t like to play table games if there aren’t a lot of people at the table, so that usually starts at night. I’ve had plenty of table game play when I’m never ahead and plenty of nights when I’m started off hot and ended up breaking even. I’ve also had a few of those nights when I cashed out ahead.
:smack:In my defense, it’s been 25 years since I got a B in statistics.
So, casinos really are counting on human nature and not just math if the vast majority of the time they are behind during a session for each gambler.
What they’re counting on is that people come to a place of gambling to gamble.
It’s possible that someone drove half an hour to the casino, found a place to park, walked the ten minute trek from their car to the lobby to the blackjack table, changed up $100, plunked down $5 and won…then packed up and left.
Possible. But not probable.
One of Pennsylvania’s shiny new casinos is 5 minutes out of the way on my drive home from work… You just wrote my 2011 New Year’s Resolution. 1. Gamble every single day. 2. Quit the moment I’m up, not matter how little. 3. Profit. 
Incidentally, a recent casino trip illustrated this thread perfectly. I played poker for a few hours and had doubled my buy-in. It’s time to go, I get AA UTG, I get masterfully out-played (ie, duder called a huge limp-reraise preflop with low unsuited connectors, flops two pair, I don’t improve), and I leave with exactly my buy-in (well, I bought drinks from my stack along the way).