Standalone as in not having any other powers.
I haven’t been keeping up with the game this week, but it seems that one of my predictions got himself killed and revealed that I was right in presuming that Lightnin’ was town. That prediction was coupled with DiggitCamara being scum, so I hope **DiggitCamara **dies soon.
While travelling (and bored) I did some analysis of game balance. I only did the case without power roles because cop investigations and doctor saves are much harder to quantify. The analysis also ignores the information factor gleaned by the town during discussons (i.e., the analysis is for probability of a win based on random lynches).
For a game with 20 people and 5 mafia, the town win probability is approx. 9%. [This is pretty much the game split for WW1 which the town won]. I’m wondering if the this makes for a balanced game. In WW1 the town was remarkably lucky (WW kill on first night) and the cop role played the game pretty much perfectly. Even then the town had one unidentified wolf and won based on confirmed town outnumbering unknowns.
Anyway, does anyone know what the distribution of town v. mafia usually looks like? Based on my analysis it is clear that a set percentage doesn’t work.
For example:
2 mafia 6 town has a population with 25%mafia and approx. 23% probability* of town win.
3 mafia 9 town has a population with 25%mafia and approx. 16% probability* of town win.
4 mafia 12 town has a population with 25%mafia and approx. 12% probability* of town win.
5 mafia 15 town has a population with 25%mafia and approx. 9% probability* of town win.
*probability ignoring cops, doctor, conversation, etc.
Presumably power roles even the odds.
So I think for a balanced game, number of mafia and number of town can’t scale evenly.
My best guess for ‘balanced’ games:
2 mafia 6 town has a population with 25%mafia and approx. 23% probability* of town win.
3 mafia 11 town has a population with 21%mafia and approx. 21% probability* of town win.
4 mafia 18 town has a population with 18%mafia and approx. 20% probability* of town win.
5 mafia 27 town has a population with 15%mafia and approx. 20% probability* of town win.
I’m getting a bad-guy feeling about Lemur, not that it matters much as we’ll probably find out really soon.
I’m getting a bit of a bad-guy feeling about CaerieD. I can’t describe it yet.
Anybody else have any suspects?
I’ve felt like diggitcamera was scum from the first day, for all the good it did me. lemur866 is another good scum canidate, along with Idle Thoughts They’ve been directing the flow of the game a bit too overtly, esp. Lemur.
-Lil
Really? You think Lemur is as much “directing the flow” as Idle and tirial? I wouldn’t say so.
Either Idle or tirial has SO been recruited. Or will be soon. The recruitment factor adds incredibly to the paranoia of this game.
Too bad about the Omi No Kami meltdown 
I hope s/he calmed down and realized it wasn’t personal, really.
Bam, they got another one!
I expect that what’s left of the bad guys – and I suspect there’s three of them – will try really hard to eliminate someone tonight game-time. Who’s it going to be?
I’d likely eliminate someone who hasn’t been vocal.
Wow, so sachertorte picked a really bad scum tell on my part.
All I can say for my supposed “scum tell” that got me lynched is :rolleyes: .
My only mistake was that I overestimated the town.
What? Did I? I don’t even remember.
When I said “I hope Lightning doesn’t turn out scum when we lynch him, because that will mean I’m next”. Of course a townie should be willing to die to take out a scum.
Oh yeah. I remember now.
I think I was mostly incensed that the town was letting that comment slide. Too much concern for who is voting for whom rather than looking at actual statements. I don’t think I actually put down an ‘official’ prediction that lemur was scum, but I did find the comment rather blatantly scummy at the time.
Yay!
Too bad, I seem to have missed the boat for the next game. Damn work travel.
Lemur:
Yeah, I don’t know if it was a genuine slip-up on your part or not, but I took “you all” in exactly the way you said you meant it from the beginning, and didn’t think anything of it…even knowing you were scum.
Nice playing, by the way.
Yeah. Thing is, when I reread that post before sending I thought to myself, “Hmmm. Should I change that? Nah, that’s exactly what I’d say if I really were a townie, leave it in.” Except I forgot that careless words like that get innocent townies lynched too.
Heh. The funny thing is, I think my public analysis hasn’t been very different than what I’d post as a townie. I wonder what they’ll make of my repeating the accusations against SnakesCatLady? First Fluiddruid fingers her, then me. What does it all mean?
Hmm… Guess I should have followed my instinct about the prison striped tail. Not that it would probably had done me any good…
I hope this is alright - I started another game [thread=421911]thread[/thread] for Haggle, a trading and scoring party game, and we’ve got a few slots still open on the signin sheet I think. So, just posting here in case anybody’s interested in giving it a look - I know we have a few mafia regulars already joined up, but still.
Thank you for your time and space.
So when Mafia IV comes around, will there be a spot for me? I mean, come on, I hardly got to play this time!
-Lil
Mafia 4 is already happening, more or less, off board. PM Malacandra to get on the sub list, it looks like we might need a sub or two. Day one has about 36 hours left in it.
Gosh, I really figured I had another Day left in me after turning into such a spectacular red herring on Day 3. I’m surprised the Mafia took me out, since I could have ended up a good lynching candidate.
For what it’s worth, Lemur, the “you all” comment wasn’t the nail in your coffin as far as I was concerned. It wasn’t even the straw that broke the camel’s back. My suspicion came mostly from the various shenanigans surrounding SnakesCatLady. It just seemed a bit off somehow. The “you all” might have gotten a townie lynched and then everybody would be feeling like idiots. Since it got scum, it’s now brilliant instead of totally random. 
Haggle took over the next Mafia slot, but other than the off-board Pirate game, the next person on the waiting list to run a game is… (checking) Blaster Master.
Blah. My accusation of CaerieD was pretty weak and very wrong. But we go with what we are given in the peanut gallery. I still think refusal to get involved in the sticky mess looked scummy; as is typical it was town-scummy not mafia-scummy. At least the town didn’t lynch her.
And where are the Masons? No Mason kills or Mason claims yet. What’s up with that?
So there’s a waiting list for games and a waiting list for *running *games. This amuses me. Is there any way to know when signups start? I’ve managed to be not looking at inopportune times.
Well, to be fair, there’s just one waiting list - the people who requested to run games. They can then post the game once their number comes up. Basically it’s just a way to make sure we’re not overrunning our hosts here in MPSIMS.
Games are generally started a few days after the prior game ends. If someone wasn’t ready to start a game reasonably soon, I would likely pass it along to the next person waiting.