France runoff, Macron vs Le Pen

At least she conceded. More than can be said about our own most recent presidential election.

I hope some of the common sense of the French people rubs off on our own citizens.

Oh, why set yourself up for disappointment like that?

As a fellow European, I’m totally with you. I was very concerned about the French election, even so nervous that at 8 PM when the result was to be announced, my heart was pounding. After the shocks of Brexit, Trump in 2016, and the Polish and Hungarian elections the last times around, I feared another blow to democracy. Le Pen would’ve been a catastrophe in the current political situation for Europe. I never could quite pinpoint Macron, but I believe that he’s a honest pro-European and a reliable partner for the French-German friendship, which is still crucial for Europe.

Agree on all points. He may not represent my preferred politics but I trust his intentions.

There was a certain undercurrent of opinion in the United States that this was true of Barack Obama too.

Don’t underestimate the popularity of a martyr, especially one who’s still alive.

On the one hand , this seems impossible. Few Americans — assuming you are American — will remember this election a month from now. So how could it influence?

And yet — there did seem to be an international populist wave in the past decade, and recent election results, in France and Germany, make me hope it is receding a bit.

Is there political science research on whether voting results internationally are explained by such waves? Or am I imaging a coherence in data trends that are really coincidental?

Yeah, I was under the impression that conservatives don’t write concession speeches nowadays.

How chummy was/is Le Pen with Putin?

If she had won, could Putin have counted on her to wreck any support NATO has been giving to Ukraine?

Very. Russia financed her campaign, and she hasn’t paid back the “loan.”

Entirely. She said she would do it.

The mind boggles that she got any votes.

Waves are much more easily discerned in hindsight. Even then, confounding factors blur. In between the two world wars, did the times and the worldwide Depression create a Fascist advance or did a group of Fascists subvert the times for their benefit? How much blame should the imperialist countries - including the U.S. - get for their treatment of the rest of the world? Did massive industrialization improve conditions or did their anti-labor viciousness spark extreme movements on the right and left? You can go on like this for whole books, and find opinions on all sides.

That doesn’t mean that Le Pen’s larger-than-expected loss is anything other than great news. However, it says nothing about the future.

I agree. It is scary such people get so much support.

Nor the persistent tendency of extremists, and particularly those on the right, to get their martyrdom in first, so that they can harp on their
sense of grievance to justify their own bullying in advance.

But it is clear that the additional support she gained this time is, not unfamiliarly, the result/symptom of economic pressures and precariousness, rather than the dogwhistle racism. The nasty core, though still there as it ever has been, isn’t enough to win on its own account.

The nasty core is not enough in France, thank Godott. It seems to be in Hungary (Pro-Putin, 2/3rds majority two weeks ago, and proud of it, as Zoltán Kovács, Secretary of State for International Communication at the Hungarian’s Prime Minister’s Office writes in The Atlantic). It isn’t in Slovenia (Yessss! Yesterday was not a bad day!). It was in Poland… Let’s just enjoy a positive day while the good feeling lasts.

The dreadful chance that Le Pen would win did keep people on their toes across Europe.

One thing it would’ve resulted in would’ve been the torpedoing of Sweden and Finland’s upcoming NATO membership.

God forbid any other major industrialized countries might study the French voting system to see how it could be emulated.

That assumes that these other countries want free and fair elections. But in fact, some other countries have electoral systems specifically designed specifically to grant a minority group a permenant electoral advantage.

You can’t look at a society with purposefully rigged elections and wring your hands over how they aren’t fair. Or, you CAN, but it isn’t going to be productive at all.

I’ve never particularly understood why, but the default in the United States (on the right but also a lot of the left as well) is to regard almost anything done by the French as an affront to American values – e.g. “cheese-eating surrender monkeys” and whatnot.

What I find to be very interesting is that Le Pen’s party only has 6 seats in the National Assembly and 0 in the Senate (though about 19 in the European Parliament). So is it fair to say that this seems more like a cult of personality than any rise in nationalist fervor from France? When Le Pen steps off the stage, perhaps the far right will go back to not making the second round in Presidential elections?