I think Buttigeig jumps out first, he’s been out of politics for awhile now and needs the headlines. He also needs to jockey for donors when there are a lot of shiny new candidates that might provide a fresh sugar high to the wine cave crowd.
Looking it up Harris announced in January ‘19 for the 2020 cycle. Which counts as within a few months of March I guess?
I’m also placing my marker on Buttigieg first, no later than in February and probably even in January. And before then spending time in South Carolina …
Newsom has said he won’t run if Kamala Harris does. Given that, as long as she is coy or undecided he’s not likely to announce. In this particular case I doubt he’ll be leading the pack unless Harris gives him her blessing early.
Yes, in part Trump is happy to let Mamdani look good when they both coincide on something because he knows the latter can never be a presidential contender.
Unless she lets him know her coyness is masking a definite run, at some point I think he can toss his hat in the ring with a “she needed to shit or get off the pot, I’m not waiting forever” rationale.
I think, regardless of timing, his fate as a viable nominee will hinge on her decision to run. His only lane is as kind of a squishy consensus candidate where he’s enough people’s 3rd choice that the party settles for him.
If the former VP is in the race, she’d naturally occupy that lane, the way Biden did in 2020.
The 53-year-old experienced “numbness in his arm” on Saturday afternoon and was taken to a local hospital, where doctors determined he suffered a stroke, according to a statement from his office.
He is at Johns Hopkins Hospital, and “the doctors are encouraged by his progress, he is awake and alert, and we are optimistic he will make a full recovery,” wrote his chief of staff, Allison Herwitt.
It occurs to me that a Talarico win in Texas could have a lot of Dems looking around for other liberal preachers and noticing Raphael Warnock.
Only if Bottoms wins the governor’s race, otherwise he’d be handing a Senate seat to the GOP.
His term expires in 2028 anyway, so the voters would choose his replacement.
So he can’t announce early. But he doesn’t need to wait forever, either, if she doesn’t say anything.
Yes, but any other Democrat might have a hard time winning that seat.
I’m not so sure. Ossoff is crushing it in his race which makes me think GA is seriously shifting to a deep blueish purple. And the Democrats have been doing a much better job of finding quality candidates of late than the MAGA GOP.
I’m not so sure, either, to be honest. Another Democrat might have a hard time, or maybe not. Hard to be sure about anything in politics, any more.
Well, we’ll have more data in a few days.
Yeah the 2028 race should be pretty easy. Things are only going to get bumpier after the midterms. I’d be shocked if GA isn’t at or near safe D at that point. I’m sure a McBath, Abrams, or Duncan could win the seat pretty easily.
Hopefully in a couple days we won’t have to agonize about a single Senate seat.
To get the thread back on topic, I think Warnock would be an outstanding nominee for the Democrats. I don’t see Newsom or Harris having a chance in the general in '28.
I agree, I think Warnock would be a great candidate.
I feel like his destiny is more to become a lion of the Senate and take over as Majority Leader when AOC primaries Schumer.
I wouldn’t necessarily be opposed to him running, though.
NYTimes this evening.
Jon Ossoff Looks Pretty Presidential
A year ago, pundits declared Georgia’s Jon Ossoff the senator most likely to lose his seat. On Tuesday, he won decisively. National Republicans had largely conceded the race months ago. The Associated Press announced his victory shortly after the polls closed.
Mr. Ossoff won so decisively, in part, because he articulated a message that connected Democrats’ fear of authoritarianism to the broader public’s fear that life is unaffordable. It’s a message that other Democratic candidates, like James Talarico in Texas, have emphasized as well. It could prove central for the party again in 2028. And it boils down to one word: corruption.
Donald Trump’s shameless self-dealing made Mr. Ossoff’s argument easier. Since returning to the White House, according to news reports, Mr. Trump has made more than $1 billion from his family’s cryptocurrency businesses alone. Americans of both parties have noticed. A Washington Post poll last month found that one-third of Republicans and independents who lean Republican now believe Mr. Trump is enriching himself in office, while a Fox News poll ranked corruption as voters’ top concern nationally.
Mr. Ossoff courted Republicans by speaking in bipartisan terms: He acknowledged that Mr. Trump didn’t invent political corruption. “Yes, the system really is rigged,” he said. “But he’s not unrigging it. He is re-rigging it for himself.”
…
In that sense, Mr. Ossoff was following a path forged by other parties trying to defeat aspiring autocrats. Peter Magyar, who decisively ended Viktor Orban’s 16-year rule in Hungary this spring, gained national prominence with a 2024 viral video in which he accused Mr. Orban of turning the government into a “family-owned business.” The good-government group Democracy International reported that Mr. Magyar’s campaign “reduced complex democratic concerns into a simple proposition: ‘Corruption has a cost.’”
…