I hope you’re not including me in that. I find confident predictions on either side–especially, but not only, those buttressed with smirking references to gambling records–suspicious, and I do my best to shy away from them, using weasel words to a fault.
I’m guessing by now that most of us have seen Randy Bryce’s ad challenging Paul Ryan’s seat. If you haven’t, I think it’s very close to exactly what Democrats should be doing in states that went for Trump.
Yes and no. It’s a great ad.
The thing is that Bryce’s job is with his union, as a political coordinator. I think his image is going to rest more with his previous work as an iron worker. If he can focus the narrative on that, and on his outsider status, he’s got a great message. Of course, he lost two prior state office races, but that’s valuable experience for a run at Congress.
At present, I wouldn’t place any wagers either way. But stay tuned.
I didn’t know any of that–helpful information. Thanks!
With respect, I’ll pass; what you wager isn’t what I call helpful information, and were it up to me would be in the thread games forum. But as long as there’s other helpful information, I’ll keep reading!
Well, I’m proud of you for being able to monetize a win by as horrible person as Karen Handel is. Congratulations.
Silver’s postmortem on last night’s elections. I find very little there to disagree with.
Edit: okay, one thing that I disagree with is the line I just underlined. I really, really want Democrats to have a clear, positive platform similar to Gingrich’s Contract On America from 1994. We can do that. It should sound notes very similar to those in Bryce’s ad. Try different anti-strategies, sure, but also try adhering to a strong set of progressive economic principles.
Can we please stop with this notion that both sides live in bubbles? Yes, it’s true that the typical liberal is surrounded by more liberals than the typical conservative is. But it’s also true that the typical liberal is surrounded by more conservatives than the typical conservative is. The bluest county in Ohio, for instance, contains ten times as many Trump voters as the reddest county in Ohio (cite), so if we consider “people in the same county” to be a rough representative of the set of people a person will interact with face-to-face, that means that Cuyahogans interact with about ten times as many Trump voters as Mercerites will.
Thank you.
Obviously, I don’t agree she’s horrible, and even if I did, I can still accurately predict events concerning horrible people. I’m not blinded to reality by my view of their moral standing.
Control of the Congress is going to depend a lot on the 900 pound gorilla, Bob Mueller’s investigation. Should Twitler be impeached, that is going to piss off his voters big time. Will they be more energized than ever to vote for everything red with an R next to it? Or will they just say screw it and start sitting out elections? Would a Pence pardon be as big a losing proposition as it was for Gerry Ford? If it turns out the Donald actively conspired with Russia to rig the election and/or offered a quid pro quo (legitimizing Crimea for the presidency), will that be what finally wakes up his cult members? Tell me which way the investigation goes and I’ll tell you how the election goes.
I think on the whole it’s a pretty good win for the Republicans. Not in the sense that the Republicans got anything, but in the sense that they avoided what would have been a big Democratic win had they lost. As above, had the Democrats won, their supporters would have been energized all over the country, which would have helped them with candidate & volunteer recruitment as well as fundraising. As it is, not much, if at all. What you’re left with is Democrats spinning like mad about how they never expected to win etc. etc., as you see in this thread. Something, but not remotely comparable to actually winning.
The only downer, from my perspective, is that I feel that the Republicans need to chuck Trump sooner rather than later, and this result may encourage them to keep their connection. Had they lost the race it would have been something of a wake-up call.
But why would you expect that PredictIt would have more people betting their hopes and not their brains on one side versus the other? I would expect that comparable bets from both sides would cancel out.
Returning to an earlier unanswered question, perhaps you can share a bit of your secret sauce here. What made you so confident in this instance that the polls and the markets were wrong?
This was not a “backward district”. The GA 6th contains some of the highest density of tech and professional workers in GA. This election was a referendum on whether the district was going to stick a thumb in Trump’s eye by having themselves represented by an unknown lightweight backed by outside money. They chose a familiar political operator who represents the kind of fiscal austerity they favor, and the national conversation over “will they become enlightened like us” certainly didn’t help anything.
This is perfectly reasonable political calculus and in their best interests, though like you I disagree with the platform. Democrats do themselves no favors casually insulting potential voters as backwards, especially when you’re obviously uninformed on the constituency you’re slurring.
Right. This district went for Price by over 20% in the November election, only by 1% for Trump. They were going to favor a Republican with a Republican platform rather than a “hey at least I’m not (with) Trump” type Democrat as their Representative.
IMO making it a referendum on Trump to be used as an example to the rest of the country was folly; that only plays into his hand by signaling Republicans that the safe bet is to stay the (erratic) course, rather than keep their distance; and on the other side of the aisle the Intra-Dem arguments will intensify as to whether moderate centrism is useless, when really an outright progressive would have lost just the same.
Spinning involves dishonesty. Which posters do you believe expected Ossoff to win, and are spinning about it in this thread?Here’s the previous thread on this election. Nearly everyone in this thread expressed doubt about Ossoff’s victory, and in that previous thread, I double-checked my posts, and the most hopeful thing I said was that “I’m not counting chickens, but I’m also not throwing in the towel.”
In other words, I think you’re misremembering what people said before the election. If you’re not, being specific would be helpful.
This sounds like:
*
“The GOP won’t take the Senate in 2014”
“Trump’s nomination will sink the GOP in 2016”
“The debates will destroy Trump”
“The Access Hollywood tape will sink Trump’s candidacy”
“The Dems will take back the Senate in 2016”
“Yes, Trump won Florida and Ohio, but don’t worry, the blue wall will save the day”
*
Just what is your batting average, so to speak?
Well, I agree with that sentiment, but I do believe a Democrat could have taken this seat if it were a stronger candidate with a moderate, coherent agenda.
That is the message I wish the Democrats will take away from this election. “Boo Trump” didn’t work in 2016, it’s not working in 2017, and it’s irresponsible to risk 2018 on this strategy. Run stronger candidates on a better platform.
Truth, justice, and the American way on my side: 100%
Probably not. GA-6 is the northern suburbs of Atlanta and pretty damned Republican. Ossoff came closer than any Republican in at least 20 years to taking the seat. I’m not even sure if any of the cities in the 6th have a Democratic mayor (Doraville may sooner rather than later, but the other cities won’t).
If I remember right, CNN noted last night that, of all the districts in the country that went for Trump, this one was the best-educated.
As I recall, in the primary Ossoff got 48% of the vote, and the combined Republican field 52%. Which looks a lot like yesterday’s result, which seems to indicate that a lot of money was spent that didn’t change anyone’s party affiliation.
The NY Times had a graphic that the GA-6 was the 6th most educated district (in terms of % of folks with a college degree) in the entire country.