Dunk and Egg is around 100 years before A Game of Thrones and they’re all dead then. Dunk and Egg both (?) die at Summerhall trying to birth them again. IIRC it’s been like 150 years, but too soon to fossilize in any case.
I agree that Aegon is probably an impostor, but in my mind R + L = J is much, much more strongly supported than any specific Aegon story (e.g. secret Blackfyre)… in other words, he’s just as likely to be some random baby as a secret Blackfyre. I’m not even sure what “secret Blackfyre” would to the story – he believes he’s a Targ, and some revelation that he was not (even if he was a Blackfyre descendant) would destroy 100% (or nearly 100%) of his claim. The Blackfyres never held the throne; I’m not sure what being a secret Blackfyre would add to his claim (or to the story).
But we’ll see – I could certainly be wrong. And I do think it’s a good, intriguing theory – just not nearly as strongly supported by the books as R + L = J.
Yep, both Aegon V and Ser Duncan the Tall perish at the Tragedy at Summerhall.
I think there is just as much evidence that Aegon is actually Rhegar’s trueborn son, though to entertain your question of random baby vs. secret Blackfyre: If Aegon ends up being a Blackfyre and that is somewhat revealed, at the very least he’s still the blood of the dragon in some regards. This, of course, is key as long as Dany is still occupied in Essos and Stannis is… well, caged up North (while Stannis has a better blood claim to the throne than a Blackfyre would, he’s still seen as more of a Baratheon than a Targaryen.
And if Aegon has the sword Blackfyre, that, by itself, could give even more legitimacy. It’s all about perception. Because some may completely disbelieve and discard Aegon was saved - however if told Aegon is a Blackfyre decedent, that may sway Lords to his side over a Lannister or Baratheon on the Iron Throne.
Being a Blackfyre wouldn’t add to his claim one iota, that’s why they’re presenting him as a trueblooded Targaryen.
I’m not sure what throwing a real Targaryen into the story does for it either. I do know that I would loathe for him to pull out that trick. “You know that character that’s been dead the entire series and is a big catalyst for future events and has never been any indication that something different happened? Well, that was all fake! Aren’t I clever!?”
R+L=J is definitely better supported. That’s a 99% theory. This is probably 85% to me. Maybe more.
Is there any more evidence than Varys says so? He says so in front of a person he has no reason to lie to, but it’s still his word vs like 20 things that says he’s a Blackfyre.
I agree about the sword Blackfyre, and I take your point – with no other good options, perhaps some lords might support a Blackfyre. We’ll see.
The main reasons I seriously doubt Aegon is legitimate are that that he was introduced so late in the series, and the “mummer’s dragon” in Quaithe’s (?) prophecies. Also, one ‘secret Targ’ (Jon) is enough, I think (which is the main reason I don’t buy the Tyrion = Targ theory). The story seems to work fine without any additional secret royals aside from Jon, when we already have the reverse situation (secret bastards) with the incest kids.
And this is part of why I don’t think being a Blackfyre adds anything to the story (though I could be wrong, of course).
I do think that Varys’s claim at the death of Kevan and GM Pycelle means something. I don’t think Varys would be the sort to lie about that at the end - he’d probably brag about it (“I’m putting a Blackfyre on the throne and now you can’t do anything about it”).
Being introduced late in the story is not something that I think is all that meaningful. As GRRM’s works indicate the entire story is in the middle of a grand narrative (the Blackfyre Rebellion stuff we’re talking about point to this). In fact it could be a sort of “all that War of the 5 Kings stuff you thought was important was really the appetizer” sort of thing. The “mummer’s dragon” could simply be Varys’s dragon - he was originally in a mummer’s troupe. It doesn’t necessarily have to mean fake. And I do think a second secret Targ adds to the story - after all, 3 dragons. And Aegon’s Conquest involved 3 riders on 3 dragons. Symmetry.
It makes varys and illyrio must more interesting, imo. Doesn’t need to make the plot go into a new direction for it to be useful.
Is the story about a black Dragon going away and coming back red just a coincidence?
Aegon is still a Dragon if he’s a blackfyre.
IIRC, Varys tells Kevan about how the new king will have been raised with the right ideas and right education to rule, but I don’t remember anything about the right blood.
You could be right – we’ll see. Hopefully soon. 
You could be right – can you refresh my memory about that story?
The relevant passage:
[Quote=A Dance with Dragons]
“I thought the crossbow fitting. You shared so much with Lord Tywin, why not that? Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen. Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, **whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm’s End and the lords of the realm gather round him.”
“Aegon?” For a moment he did not understand. Then he remembered. A babe swaddled in a crimson cloak, the cloth stained with his blood and brains. “Dead. He’s dead.”
“No.” The eunuch’s voice seemed deeper. “He is here.** Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them.”
[/Quote]
Now granted, that doesn’t prove that Aegon is indeed the Aegon thought dead. But in the conversation, Kevan does mention Aegon is dead, but Varys tells him no, that “he is here”.
I meant the latter. You might have a point on the former but even so, Aegon I was 300 years ago, not exactly the same timescale that makes bones rock.
Several decades = more than 100.
You are working with a slightly different implication (and definition) of several decades ;). I wouldn’t say, for instance, World War 1 started several decades ago ;).
Anyways, 100-200 year old dragon eggs are pretty damned old and close enough to at least seem fossilized - I mean they are eggs after all.
Thanks. So if Aegon is an impostor, either Varys thinks he’s legit, or Varys is lying (very possible, but why lie to a dead man?). Interesting.
The other suggestion was that Varys isn’t technically lying. But he knows that Kevan is thinking of Aegon, the actual son of Rhegar, while Varys is referring to the person calling himself Aegon, but isn’t the same person. So it’s more of an omission, but it goes back again to why lie to a dead man when you about to go on a monologue of how good he is?
I just reread Kevan’s chapter. There are a half dozen of Varys’s little birds in the room with him when he shoots Kevan, and the kids finish Kevan off with daggers. Varys is too smart to let his minions know his deepest secret for the sake of gloating to a dying man.
There’s also speculation Varys thinks Aegon is real while Ilyrio pulled one over on him.
I don’t think Aegon=Blackfyre is that tin-foily as far as these things go. We just don’t know enough right now and I’m fairly sure we’ll find out for sure in the next two books or a post-book So Spake Martin.
But the bigger thing is that if we’re arguing like this, it shows that people in Westeros are going to do be doing the same thing. They’re not going to take Aegon’s and Connington’s words for it. They’re going to pick sides and bicker too.
So to me, the ultimate question isn’t whether or not he is legitimate (personally I’m like 60/40 he’s not) but what this means to the story, and I think that means lots of destruction of the realm.
Aegon didn’t have the first dragons. No reason to think the eggs didn’t predate him by many years.
The eggs are described as fossilized eggs when Illiryo presents them to Dany, they obviously did not come from the last dragons.