In response to Pleo, the “rock that keeps tigers away” is a Simpsons quote; I was (in the context of a discussion of the efficacy of your “claim in the first post” tactic) noting that I thought your efforts to sow confusion amongst the ALE would be precisely as effective as Lisa Simpson’s rock that keeps tigers away.
On Astral:
I believe that he is Town.
1 - His mistake/confusion really doesn’t make any more sense for a scum player than for a town player; either would require him to completely forget which team he was on.
2 - His claim makes no sense for a Third Party; I would expect a claim that was not at the top of the scum’s priority list. Even if he couldn’t come up with anything better, I would expect a Third Party Astral to try harder to argue his way out and only claim on the weekend, since at this point he basically has no chance of surviving to the end of the game.
3a - His claim itself doesn’t make sense as a Scum claim. Why Weak Cop and not just Cop? Sure, there’s the off chance you’ll “investigate” as Town a third-party who subsequently flips, but this is strictly a tactic to buy a mislynch or two and/or force the real Cop into the open, and what are the odds that you will both pick a Third Party AND have that Third Party flip in that time?
3b - Likewise, if his intent was to claim a Weak Cop so as to avoid a counterclaim from the real Cop, his claim was not nearly weak enough; no real Cop is going to buy there being 2 cops in the game who can both investigate scum. Why not go for something like a back-up Cop, who only gets to investigate when Cop #1 goes down? It even fits thematically with R. Daneel, who after all didn’t get his telepathetic powers until book 4 of the series.
[QUOTE=Stanislaus;13853643
It’s very difficult to reconcile this post with Zeriel’s pursuit of what he believes is a third-party survivor and failure to look anywhere else for scum. I’m inclined to think that Zeriel is Scum who thinks he has found a safe “pro-Town” vote that won’t draw much attention.[/QUOTE]
you may have noticed that after my conclusion that Astral was probably 3rd-party, my freakin’ computer died and I haven’t had a lot of complex things to say.
I have a borrowed laptop now, so we’ll see.
I should note that ultimately whether or not Astral is survivor (as I suspect) or not, the fact he’s tossing around a cop claim relatively early and unprovoked and defending it on spurious reasoning (expecting a counter-claim in a closed game?) are both relatively anti-town. As much as anything else we’ve seen today.
I note we have a lot of lurking going on as well, though, which was where I’d planned on looking today now that I actually can.
Do you have any information that you’d like to share with the rest of the class concerning this closed game’s role layout?
“Weak Cop” is a relatively rare/specific role, as well, and we’ve had games before with multiple cops (one crippled in some way); heck, my first game had something similar.
Also, Stanislaus? I have 32 posts in this thread (6th most). You have 8 (3rd lowest of players). Pot calling the kettle black much, regarding low but nonexistent posting?
I’ve got to post 350. In the course of my reading I noted a post that twinged me a bit, and no-one responded to it by 350, so I’ll bring it up.
Post [post=13840791]322[/post].
Zeriel asserted that Astral had claimed with four votes on him.
There were six.
I’d call that a smudge, if Zeriel wasn’t one of the six. But, it is overstating a case to make it more plausible. A mark against Zeriel in my note file.
I’m basing it on the fact that in my experience lurking & playing in Mafia on this board (mainly), which comes to 10 or 15 games I’d reckon, there has been precisely one game with no Town cop (On Cecil Pond), weak or otherwise. Plus Pleo’s Mutiny games, I guess.
Also, you didn’t answer my question. If a posited Third Party Astral decided to make up a Cop claim, what would be his plan of action should an actual Cop (weak or not) show up? Clearly, unless he had a really weird role, he also would have no idea what roles existed in the game.
Unprovoked? Really? You thought I would just naturally lose voters as the day went on WITHOUT a claim? When two players were already demanding one?
With no claim, we’d have had no discussion whatsoever beyond everybody’s perfunctory vote for me. Now, town has plenty of information to deal with once I eventually die. It’s regrettable that I’m still the lynch leader, since lynching a claimed cop is poor strategy on Day 1, but I think some real solid leads have come out of the discussion.
crystallized huh? then it isn’t bulletproof? i guess those words aren’t mutually exclusive but don’t seem to match. leaving wiggle room in case i flip Town?
[quote]
My feelings about your suspiciousness crystallized; whereas before it was only a gut feeling. Now I can support that feeling with some facts to point to. This is such a ridiculous comment by you that I don’t know where to start.
Fair enough, but still worth mentioning when I’m reviewing your entire posting history.
You said in your first post discussing me that “we can opt to look elsewhere, but where?” When asked why you haven’t voted me, you respond “it’s still early in the Day. something may yet happen but if you want me to, i’ll oblige.” When you finally vote for me, you say “i will still see if anything else comes up and see if anything changes my mind.” When talking with Mahaloth about your strategy, you say “i observe, poke here and there and try to get reactions. then i vote.”
Without even trying, I came up with four posts where you’re looking for something other than me. And you never, ever actually try to build any cases. So yes, you technically never used the word “promise,” but you’re clearly implying that you are hard at work looking for other scum. And you never, ever, build a case on anyone.
False equivalence. My error was a mistake in reading comprehension. Your error is refusing to do your job as town. (which leads me to believe you aren’t town.)
In the interest of preserving my link to his original comment, that first part of that post should look like this:
My feelings about your suspiciousness crystallized; whereas before it was only a gut feeling. Now I can support that feeling with some facts to point to. This is such a ridiculous comment by you that I don’t know where to start.
To answer this, yes a weak Cop claim might not provoke a counter claim by the real Cop while making it easier for Astral to slide by.
As for the investigation results not really being weak Cop, remember if Astral is Scum, he was hanstrung by his claim of misreading his PM.
In fact, this is the most daming evidence against him, IMO. He had to come up with a PM that indicated he couldn’t find alignment only team. Which is why he was so sure that there were 3rd party players.
However, given that his PM indicates he can find ALE, but not alignment, and the ALE seems to be the Scum team, why was he so sure that he could find 3rd party?
Two cops would be pretty overpowered for our team; I can find all scum team members (except perhaps the godfather, as someone pointed out.). Another cop who can also find alignment would be ridiculous. So, I assumed (and still assume) I’m the only cop you get.
The absence of a counter-claim surely implies something, right? A one-for-one trade is a great deal for town. I guess you could argue they’re hanging low in case I die regardless, but it still makes no sense to kill your cop on Day 1, so why are you so adamant I have to die now? They can counter-claim me Day 3, after they get some results, for instance. But until that happens, all you know is that I’ve claimed cop, and that you don’t even want a single result from me.