oh, and vote Pleonast
I didn’t think it needed a better rebuttal. Your self-proclaimed primary reason for voting for me is that I made a mistake that indicates I’m scum, or it means I’m not paying attention enough for you.
Your primary reason. Reason número uno. Your most compelling reason stated. The big one. And it might not be because I’m scum, I might just not be paying enough attention for you. Either way, you want me lynched.
I know you’ve given other circumstantial reasons, but my not paying enough attention for you was important enough that you felt you had to mention it as reason number one to lynch me, and that is incredibly short-sighted.
Did you just vote to put yourself in the lynch lead?
technically, I unvoted to put myself in the lynch lead
I just don’t get it. You were unwilling to vote Astral before Ed posted the PMs. Then you used that as an excuse to change your vote. Now, in spite of our moderator basically telling us that the PMs are a null-tell, you stubbornly continue to call them “damning evidence” and leave your vote in place.
Unvote: Astral
Vote: fubbleskag
technically, you unvoted by voting to put yourself into the lead.
So, now how about an answer to the question?
somehow both of you missed this post?
I was hoping to avoid having to do this, but with only 3 hours left I don’t see any other choice:
[QUOTE=Red Skeezix]
Name: Roland Deschain
Alignment: Consolidated Alliance of Raftdwelling Slumlords
Universe/Story: The Dark Tower
Role: Remorseful Vig
Powers: Each night you may select a player to kill. If that player is a member of the Consolidated Alliance of Raftdwelling Slumlords, you will no longer be able to kill.
Wincondition: You win when all threats to the Consolidated Alliance of Raftdwelling Slumlords have been vanquished AND at least one member of the Consolidated Alliance of Raftdwelling Slumlords are alive.
[/QUOTE]
What an interesting day! We have three claims, and three PM’s posted… For some reason, we townies seem to be concentrating on our own power roles… I really don’t want to vote for a townie, and since Astral isn’t in the lead anymore, I’m going to change my vote to the person I do find scummiest of the people leading.
unvote fubbleskag
vote Pleonast
I’m really hoping whomever we lynch is scum… I have homework to do, but I’ll check back right before end of day to see how things are going.
Ah, I missed the ‘un’ part
probably a mental block on my part since it was in blue.
There are two things about this post that twing me.
Firstly, Hirka seems to be assuming that the posted PMs are true.
… For some reason, we townies seem to be concentrating on our own power roles …
… I really don’t want to vote for a townie …
How does he know?
Secondly. Pleo may well be the lead candidate, but he’s not going to be able to defend himself Today, since he said upthread he won’t be around until after the end of Day. Thus, he’s a soft target.
I’m happy with my vote for Zeriel. He’s going for a target he believes third party instead of ALE-hunting. He tried to pass his accusations of Astral being third party off as a side discussion in [post=13859501]post 632[/post], but as Stanisalus shows, it’s central to his argument.
Another problem I have with Zeriel’s willingness to kill an alleged third party is that we don’t know the ALE drinker’s wincon. It could easily be written that they have to outnumber non-members of the ALE. Third party players would then count against that wincon.
:smack:
Y’know, that’s actually a good point I hadn’t thought of, and it balances out the chance that he’s a SK or some other PFK type we’d have to lynch anyway. It’s enough to give him a night and see if he manages to investigate, anyway.
unvote Astral
Still not inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt if he doesn’t come up with something soon, though, since we KNOW our wincon requires both the scum and any hostile PFKs that might exist to be dealt with.
Regarding other major extant cases: I don’t really think **fubbleskag **is scum, based solely on the fact they put themselves in the vote lead by breaking a tie (tie votes heavily favor scum with this tiebreaking mechanic, as I’ve worked out in other games).
I find myself strangely unwilling to vote for Pleo, despite the magic bag. It’s far too close to the deadline to try to get a claim out of him, and I think he’s away anyway.
I also find myself generally annoyed at ties close to the deadline because the tiebreaker mechanic heavily favors any scum who are involved in the tie. vote Hirka T’Bawa
Unofficial vote count, please check:
fubbleskag(7): nesta[523], Pleonast[530], Tom Scud[583], Special Ed[603], Silver Jan[623], Weedy[626], [del]Hirka T’B7aw[635-649][/del], TexCat[645]
Pleonast(6): Winston Smith[328], fluiddruid[356], [del]Hirka T’Bawa[536-536][536-536][536-536][536-635][/del], Normal Phase[540], pedescribe[546], fubbleskag[641], Hirka T’Bawa[649]
Astral Rejection(4): [del]Tom Scud[136-236][/del], [del]Stanislaus[139-211][/del], [del]TexCat[141-645][/del], Mahaloth[154], [del]Zeriel[160-653][/del], [del]Normal Phase[207-237][/del], [del]Special Ed[245-507][/del], gnarlycharlie[324], [del]Silver Jan[327-428][/del], SisterCoyote[466], [del]fubbleskag[490-636][/del], Inner Stickler[492]
Zeriel(2): Stanislaus[560], MHaye[627]
gnarlycharlie(1): [del]Normal Phase[318-540][/del], Astral Rejection[569], [del]Silver Jan[581-615][/del]
Hirka T’Bawa (1): Zeriel [653]
Special Ed(0): [del]Astral Rejection[248-451][/del]
SisterCoyote(0): [del]Normal Phase[317-318][/del], [del]pedescribe[399-545][/del], [del]Weedy[407-626][/del], [del]Hirka T’Bawa[414-536][/del], [del]Astral Rejection[451-569][/del], [del]Pleonast[487-530][/del]
Mahaloth(0): [del]Hirka T’Bawa[398-414][/del]
Did Not Vote:
I am assuming the posted PMs are true, while I could be fooled, I do believe they are legit. They were defiantly written by Red, while it is possible that they were provided as a cover ID, I believe Astral and fubbleskag. (I honestly didn’t do a lot of looking at Sister’s, but everyone else seems to have accepted that one). fubbleskag devoted Astral to put himself in the lead, that isn’t something I would think Scum would do. So, I don’t know anything, I just believe.
I haven’t seen your math from previous games, how does a tie greatly help scum? I didn’t really look at it much before you brought it up, but a quick calculation I come up with a 6.25% chance of two lynches, and a 93.75% chance of no lynch. Wouldn’t the much higher chance of no lynch be non-beneficial to scum? Don’t they want a mis-lynch?
Besides, I voted as a protective vote on Astral, I thought something would change by end of day so it wouldn’t be a tie by then… Just didn’t expect fubbleskag to sacrifice himself, which is defiantly non-scummy, so didn’t feel comfortable keeping my vote on him, so voted for Pleo since he is the most scummy of the people leading in votes, so if I don’t want Astral or fubbleskag lynched, I needed to pick the next most likely person, and someone I don’t believe is town.
I’m currently agnostic on the issue of fubbles, since I haven’t devoted much of time in this game to carefully reviewing his posts. However, I will note that your reasoning is suspect - scum will do anything and everything to avoid getting lynched, including this. I tried (and failed) a similar maneuver in LOTR mafia, where I did not vote for the person I was tied with in an attempt to look like the “more concerned with being accurate” townie.
Ultimately, you need to look at fubbles’ posts in aggregate, and not let yourself be swayed by a single apparently altruistic action.
Again, I have no opinion currently on fubbles; this is not intended to be an implicit accusation of scumminess. I’m merely cautioning you to remember that scum will do anything in their power in an attempt to survive.
Scum won’t necessarily want a mislynch when they can avoid a lynch all together. It’s like skipping the Day altogether and they still get a NK.
Imagine if tehre were no lynch at all? Wouldn’t Scum love this?
That said, fubble’s unvote wasn’t at the end of the Day, so a change was always possible at the last minute.
The PMs could have been edited; the wincon for the Slumlords is public. SO it would be a matter of editing a couple of lines to include publically available information.
It’s a different issue of the power is faked though; that would require more work.
Yes, they do. But while the ALE drinkers want mislynches to move closer to their wincon, the Slumlords need information, and the most reliable source of information is the Moderator’s death reveals. That means the Slumlords have to accept taking casualties as the price of gaining information.
Actions taken also give information; Cops learn alignment (or, assuming Astral is truthful, ALE membership) and so on.
By and large, no lynch on Day 1 is bad because you hand the initiative to the ALE drinkers. It’s then very hard to recover.
There is one chance in 16 of two deaths in the result of a tie, and 15/16 of two deaths.
Breaking a tie is pro-town. fubbleskag earned himself a mark on the Town side of my comments. It’s not definitive by any means. It just means that, when I pick someone to put under a microscope, he won’t be the first candidate.
I just think causing a tie is so obviously scummy that the scum wouldn’t do it*. Given that, BREAKING a tie earns you town credit, something scum would know.
I won’t begrudge people giving fubbles some townie credit for this action. However, I just wanted people to keep in mind that earning town credit is something scum want to do, too, and perhaps (just perhaps, this is still firmly hypothetical) scum would try to take advantage of this same as town.
(*if somebody DOES cause a tie, I’d vote to lynch them. That starred sentence isn’t to imply “scum wouldn’t do that,” it’s that I don’t think it would happen, period.)
fubbleskag(7): nesta[523], Pleonast[530], Tom Scud[583], Special Ed[603], Silver Jan[623], Weedy[626], [del]Hirka T’Bawa[635-649][/del], TexCat[645]
Astral Rejection(6): [del]Tom Scud[136-236][/del], [del]Stanislaus[139-211][/del], TexCat[141], Mahaloth[154], [del]Zeriel[160-653][/del], [del]Normal Phase[207-237][/del], [del]Special Ed[245-507][/del], gnarlycharlie[324], [del]Silver Jan[327-428][/del], SisterCoyote[466], fubbleskag[490][636-641], Inner Stickler[492]
Pleonast(6): Winston Smith[328], fluiddruid[356], Hirka T’Bawa[del][536-536][536-536][536-536][536-635][/del][649], Normal Phase[540], pedescribe[546], fubbleskag[641]
Zeriel(2): Stanislaus[560], MHaye[627]
gnarlycharlie(1): [del]Normal Phase[318-540][/del], Astral Rejection[569], [del]Silver Jan[581-615][/del]
Hirka T’Bawa(1): Zeriel[653]
Special Ed(0): [del]Astral Rejection[248-451][/del]
SisterCoyote(0): [del]Normal Phase[317-318][/del], [del]pedescribe[399-545][/del], [del]Weedy[407-626][/del], [del]Hirka T’Bawa[414-536][/del], [del]Astral Rejection[451-569][/del], [del]Pleonast[487-530][/del]
Mahaloth(0): [del]Hirka T’Bawa[398-414][/del]
Did Not Vote:
With these votes fubbleskag will be lynched.
Just under 15 minutes left in the day.