Georgia senate runoff elections. Let’s debate and make predictions

Ah, true. I presumed the outfit we interacted with had done their homework on that, but perhaps not.

Things seem to be going well for the GOP, as this series of tweets re: Rona McDaniel speaking to GOPers in Cobb County:

Google Photos

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The revolution eats its children.

But first it drives them mad.

The stupid leading the stupider.

The Republicans have gone beyond the “Leninist” Steve Bannon and have already reached Stalinism. The new right looks a lot like the old left.

I will assume that runoffs don’t allow the possibility of write-in votes. It makes no sense.

Also, let’s try to keep the discussion to the GA special elections.

Just another data point - yesterday my area in Georgia had a special runoff. I’m friends with people on the Board of Elections, and they said they had a higher turnout yesterday for the small local race than they did the 2020 Presidential Election (I’m assuming they meant actual day of voting only). This is really shocking to me. There was a really good showing for republicans for this race (Democrat still won), but I think it shows that the Republican voters are definitely not going to stay at home in January. That’s just media bluster.

Is media saying this? I haven’t seen an article claiming this anywhere.

Trump’s people, if we can still call Sidney Powell one of Trump’s people, are telling his supporters to stay home for the special election.

On the one hand, I think this is a very good thing. I tend to over-dramatize these things in my head, but I think Democrats winning the senate could make the difference between pulling us back from the brink of dictatorship vs. a temporary delay until 2024. On the other hand, when people sit out elections in protest in other countries, that seems to have occurred when things have already reached the point of no return.

I’m reminded of a quote from a recent CNN article comparing trump to McCarthy: journalist William S. White back then said:

“In McCarthy, embarrassed Republican leaders know they have got hold of a red-hot bazooka, useful in destroying the enemy but also quite likely to blister the hands of the forces that employ it. Their private fear is that a lethal rocket may at any moment blast out through the wrong end of the pipe.”

I tend to think all this analysis that Trump’s focus in election fraud is going to dampen Republican turnout is overblown. I’m sure he’s going to rant and rave for an hour at the rally about how the election was stolen and ridden with fraud. But he’s also going to tell his supporters to go vote for Loeffler and Purdue, and they will do as they’re told. And no, the logical contradiction will not bother them.

Sure, if he tells them to vote they will, but I’m not quite convinced he’s not going to do quite the opposite. Trump is currently extremely unhappy with Georgia Republicans.

When all is said and done, I suspect that the innate, longstanding GOP advantage in Senate runoff elections in Georgia will offset any Trumpian peevishness, and both Republicans will win. But I’d be very glad to be proven wrong.

Yup, I think the exact same thing. It’ll be similar to South Carolina in November, I’d say, where it seems like there might be a glimmer of hope, just maybe, but when all is said and done the Dems end up losing handily by 5-6 points.

Wow, just today there’s been a couple of promising polls released by Survey USA (A-rated according to 538). In the words of Lloyd Christmas, “so yer tellin’ me there’s a chance”.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/georgia/

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/poll-results-show-tight-races-between-candidates-in-us-senate-runoffs/85-e0640bcf-374a-4bb7-9b1d-f724dbd80dfb

We’ve done 500 letters and 250 postcards for Vote Forward. I hope it makes a difference. Vote Forward estimates 1.5 million have been written and are hoping to hit 2M total. These are targeted at registered voters who have tended to stay home.

“I reject your reality and substitute my own!”