The “3.5 percent rule” states that when 3.5% of the population engages in sustained protest against a regime or authoritarian government, that government is likely to fall from power. It is, of course, only a rule of thumb, and doesn’t guarantee results.
The Hands Off and No Kings protests got only about 1.3% and 2% of the populace out to protest, respectively - and, more importantly, were sporadic rare events, not a sustained continuous protest. As such, Hands Off and No Kings fell short. The 3.5-percent rule would mean roughly 12 million Americans continuously protesting in sustained fashion.
How can we get there? Advertise the 3.5 percent rule and tout it heavily? I’m not sure how 12 million could afford to protest continuously, too, given the need for jobs and income, unless they become weekend-only protests, at which point the effectiveness might drop. In a certain sense, elections may actually discourage and reduce incentive to protest, because many Americans may be thinking “There’s no need to protest in the streets, I’ll just wait until November 2026 and vote my ballot in the midterms.”
Sustained protest means more than just organizing marches and demonstrations. It means developing civil disobedience, strikes, occupations, and other forms of non-violent protest. George Lakey, like Erica Chernoweth, who developed the 3.5% rule (the two reference each others’ work) talks about campaigns and movements, not protests, here. Why Campaigns, Not Protests, Get the Goods - The Commons It may be useful.
The cause and effect action is more reciprocal than one-way. Chernoweth and Lakey and talking about building movements and process as much as end result. Their work does not come with an iron-clad guarantee, but it helps thinking about what to do next.
One way to get more people demonstrating is to leverage us older folks who don’t work and have time to attend protests during the day. Nobody has ever contacted me to get involved in any protests, but I currently live in a red state. Of course, when you protest, you risk being labeled a troublemaker by local law enforcement, which may not be a good thing in the long run.
When I talk to other seniors, they tell me they are worried about what the country will be like for their grandkids if we continue down the path we are on. They want to do something to stop what’s happening, and they are worried about losing their Social Security benefits in a few years. A can that Congress continues to kick down the road, with no one trying to solve the problem before it’s too late.