Two?
All of this is total conjecture, not even in the realm of hypothesis, so please don’t think I’m agreeing with the OP’s girlfriend. I know the old wives’ tale, I don’t know that there’s any actual support for it. I suspect it’s mostly confirmation bias at work. First step is to find out if there actually is a link when you run the numbers and control for things we know affect babby forming in groups, like age and peer pressure.
But is it as out of the world inconceivable as some posters seem to think? I don’t think so. There are several mechanisms I’d explore IF an actual statistical link is found between peer group pregnancies that cannot be explained by known factors.
Does being around/holding babies influence women’s hormonal levels in a way which affects fertility? The African Wives’ Tale I’m most familiar with is that if a woman is having trouble conceiving, she should work as a nanny or mother’s helper for a newborn. Supposedly, she will find herself pregnant in short order. We know that holding babies decreases cortisol and increase oxytocin - could that, or some other hormonal effect, enhance fertility, perhaps by increasing the fertile cervical mucus, or lengthening the luteal phase? If so, a pregnancy is more likely to result from a condom failure than in a woman whose fertility is less. Since the average window of fertility in any cycle is 3-5 days, even one extra fertile day a month is a huge fertility boost.
Does being around pregnant women or babies change sexual intercourse style? We know that men who believe their partners have been unfaithful have rougher sex. Does being around pregnant friends cause women (or men) to have rougher sex? Rougher sex correlates to greater chances of condom breakage.
Does being around babies cause riskier behavior regarding contraception use? Does it get people to thinking “what if?” and “maybe?” and they consciously or unconsciously forget a couple of pills, use less spermicide, stay inside longer after ejaculation with a condom, or “oops” and don’t use contraception at all?