Give me your probability estimates

[robby]

@Dr_Paprika

What are the chances! Who knows? This thread takes a bunch of contemporary events and asks you to guess at the chance it works out. You don’t have to justify things unless you want to. Perhaps you’ll be the next Jeanne Dixon!

So, what are the chances that:

1. The phosphine from Venus is from microbes or living things and not an error or an undiscovered chemical process?

2. No new Supreme Court judge is in place by January 2022 (i.e. Trump and McConnell are unsuccessful)?

3. All COVID restrictions are lifted in the US in eight months time?

4. The Democrats win both the US House and the Senate?

5. The next successful Republican candidate has the last name Trump or Pence?

6. There will be a female or Latino President by 2030?

Without reading any of the other guesses (including those in the OP), mine are as follows:

1. 0.0001%
2. 10%
3. 20%
4. 50%
5. 5%
6. 70%

ETA: For question #2, I also assumed you meant January 2021.

[robby]

@RickJay

1. 0.001%

I am incredulous at the numbers being given for this. It would be AMAZING if there was life on Venus. Absolutely shocking.

Agreed. Your estimate is one chance in 100,000. Mine is even lower (one chance out of a million that these results indicate life on Venus).

[RickJay]

@robby

Agreed. Your estimate is one chance in 100,000. Mine is even lower (one chance out of a million that these results indicate life on Venus).

I mean, we’re seeing numbers as high as 50%. I want these people to bet money on it with me. I’ll give anyone ten to one odds. This is a classic case where Bayesian inference needs to trump wishful thinking.

The only reason I went as high as I did is that we have sent probes to Venus and so it’s possible we contaminated it ourselves. That creating the high levels of microbial life necessary to create massive clouds of phosphine is still ludicrously unlikely, but it’s not zero.

[iiandyiiii]

But life is tenacious. It’s still probably some explanation other than life on Venus, but why would this be so incredibly unlikely? Even if this is an error, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if we eventually find microbial life on Mars, Venus, Europa, and several other bodies in the solar system, according to my understanding of the science.

I think my 10% is in the ballpark of reasonable.

[Left_Hand_of_Dorkness]

I’m really not getting how folks are setting odds on Venusian life. I mean, I get it if you’re basing it on your guts, but people arguing about it? Like, what’s your sample size?

We know of one planet where life developed. That’s not enough for me to draw odds from.

[iiandyiiii]

You’re right that this is basically a guess. But I think I have a smidge of rational basis for my guess – not really the number, but more like “while this is not particularly likely, it’s within the realm of feasible possibility”.

[Left_Hand_of_Dorkness]

I guess that’s what I’m wondering: what’s the basis for saying it’s not particularly likely? I just don’t know that our sample size is anywhere near big enough to say anything more precise than that the probability, given our current knowledge of the cosmos, is greater than 0% and less than 100% that there’s microbial life in Venus’s atmosphere.

[RickJay]

@iiandyiiii

But life is tenacious. It’s still probably some explanation other than life on Venus, but why would this be so incredibly unlikely?

It’s incredibly unlikely because every variable OTHER than phosphine being there says there isn’t life there. Again, I’m just taking a Bayesian view here. I would be very comfortable offering ten to one on your money. (Your 10% is certainly a lot closer to the truth than 50% though; you at least see it as unlikely.)

The scientists who found the phosphine sound pretty dubious themselves.

[Left_Hand_of_Dorkness]

@RickJay

It’s incredibly unlikely because every variable OTHER than phosphine being there says there isn’t life there.

What specific variables are you looking at? I genuinely am not sure we’ve got the data to evaluate these variables well. Fifty years ago we didn’t know about deep-sea hydrothermal vents, and IIRC we thought life could not possibly exist at those temperatures. Forty years ago, we didn’t know about light-isolated cave ecosystems (and even now I think we only know of one).

I’m not remotely saying it’s life; I’m just saying that we’ve got an anomaly, and I don’t know we can safely predict how it’ll get resolved.

[Hari_Seldon]

@Dr_Paprika

• The phosphine from Venus is from microbes or living things and not an error or an undiscovered chemical process?
• No new Supreme Court judge is in place by January 2021 (i.e. Trump and McConnell are unsuccessful)?
• All COVID restrictions are lifted in the US in eight months time?
• The Democrats win both the US House and the Senate?
• The next successful Republican candidate has the last name Trump or Pence?
• There will be a female or Latino President by 2030?

1. 10% (Discussed below)
2. 0%
3. 1%
4. 25%
5. 10%
6. 25%

I agree it would be absolutely amazing if there were life on Venus. But Venus was once quite earth-like. We have no way of estimating the probability of life developing on an earth-like world, having a sample size of 1. But one thing we do know is that life is extremely tenacious. Read about extremophiles: Extremophile - Wikipedia
If life did develop on Venus and if the changes happened gradually enough it is plausible that some organisms could have adapted to the changes.

On the other hand, the chances of an earth organism adapting to the Venereal environment fast enough to survive seems to me utterly remote.

Oh, I edited that date.

[iiandyiiii]

@RickJay

It’s incredibly unlikely because every variable OTHER than phosphine being there says there isn’t life there.

IIRC, the temperature of the cloud layer (or part of it, at least) is quite comfortable for life.

[Left_Hand_of_Dorkness]

There is at least one other anomaly:

It has been speculated that any hypothetical microorganisms inhabiting the atmosphere, if present, could employ ultraviolet light (UV) emitted by the Sun as an energy source, which could be an explanation for the dark lines (called “unknown UV absorber”) observed in the UV photographs of Venus.[

The explanation may be something simple, and we can approach the “sample size” as “what other observations have we speculated were extraterrestrial life but then turned out to be nothing?” In that case, 100% of all anomalies that we’ve resolved have resolved against extraterrestrial life, so I suppose that can act as a basis for setting odds.

But there are enough unresolved anomalies–and there are anomalies that got resolved in favor of life being somewhere impossible (e.g., hydrothermal vents)–that I’m not super comfortable with such an analysis.

[PlaceboTarget]

I’ll be be using some really rough, approximate guesses, which I’m not very sure of:

• The phosphine from Venus is from microbes or living things and not an error or an undiscovered chemical process?
  My probability estimate: below 50%.

• No new Supreme Court judge is in place by January 2021 (i.e. Trump and McConnell are unsuccessful)?
  My probability estimate: below 50%.

• All COVID restrictions are lifted in the US in eight months time?
  My probability estimate: above 50%.

• The Democrats win both the US House and the Senate?
  My probability estimate: 50%.

• The next successful Republican candidate has the last name Trump or Pence?
  My probability estimate: below 50%.

• There will be a female or Latino President by 2030?
  My probability estimate: below 50%.

[Riemann]

@Hari_Seldon

On the other hand, the chances of an earth organism adapting to the Venereal environment fast enough to survive seems to me utterly remote.

I’d like to give you the benefit of the doubt that this was autocorrect, but then it wouldn’t be capitalized…

[Gatopescado]

#5 is a trick question. I cannot believe for a second Trump is gonna get reelected. However, I suspect that he will be defeated by the largest landslide in history, and he will quit from being Butt-hurt so bad. Pence will take over for the lame duck period. Hardly ‘successful’ but he might get the title by default, if only for a few months.

[Dr_Paprika]

I tend to agree, but we’ll see, of course.

[RickJay]

@Gatopescado

However, I suspect that he will be defeated by the largest landslide in history

I’ll give you fifty to one on that. The odds he will be defeated by the largest landslide in history probably is not half of one percent.

The largest landslide ever was in 1936, when Alf Landon won just 8 electoral votes to FDR’s 523. There is no chance Trump does that badly, or as badly as McGovern in 1972 or Mondale in 1984.

[BobLibDem]

Yes I think a very good result for Biden would be 335-203. It would take a small miracle to add TX, OH, and GA to his column and make it 407-131. That is as high as I think remotely possible, barring some major miralce.

[Dr_Paprika]

Biden will win the solid Democratic States and enough of the contested ones to win. Will likely take the Senate and House too. I don’t usually like the same party to win both, but the nature of democracy is a rare factor in this election. Trump often does better than one would think. In many ways, he is no Victoria Woodhull. But Pence and the Trumpitos have peaked.

[eschrodinger]

@BobLibDem

Yes I think a very good result for Biden would be 335-203. It would take a small miracle to add TX, OH, and GA to his column and make it 407-131. That is as high as I think remotely possible, barring some major miralce.

I agree on the electoral college side. In terms of the popular vote, Biden won’t beat the records there either. Highest popular vote margin was about 26%. (Warren Harding over James Cox.) Biden isn’t polling anywhere near that. Maybe he could have a margin of 10 points, and might have some kind of outlier chance of 15 or something like that, but that would be around the middle of the pack as landslides go. I mean, even if you say it split 60/40, since Trump’s approval rating hovers around 40%, that still would not beat 26%, and would not be in the top 5 biggest popular vote margins.