Give me your probability estimates

In My Humble Opinion
41
  1. 0%
  2. 0%
  3. 0% that all restrictions will be lifted in all states
  4. 49%
  5. 0% if you are talking about 2024
  6. 50%
42
  • The phosphine from Venus is from microbes or living things and not an error or an undiscovered chemical process? 20%
  • No new Supreme Court judge is in place by January 2021 (i.e. Trump and McConnell are unsuccessful)? 7.5%
  • All COVID restrictions are lifted in the US in eight months time? 0% (not all everywhere in the U.S. but most)
  • The Democrats win both the US House and the Senate? 70%
  • The next successful Republican candidate has the last name Trump or Pence? You mean in 2024? 5%
  • There will be a female or Latino President by 2030? 40%

I have no figures to back any of this up.

43

  1. The phosphine from Venus is from microbes or living things and not an error or an undiscovered chemical process?
    40%

  2. No new Supreme Court judge is in place by January 2021 (i.e. Trump and McConnell are unsuccessful)?

20%

  1. All COVID restrictions are lifted in the US in eight months time?

75%

  1. The Democrats win both the US House and the Senate?

60%

  1. The next successful Republican candidate has the last name Trump or Pence?

22%

  1. There will be a female or Latino President by 2030?

39%