So we have 3 unclaimed vanilla, 1 vig, 1 doc, 2 masons, and 4 scum in the pool of unclaimed people. Plan A) is when people claim vanilla (and the vig) or non-. Plan B) is when the Masons only claim.
Today, in plan A), scum sees the vanilla pool as 3 vanilla and the vig. In plan B), scum sees the unclaimed pool as 3 vanilla, 1 vig, and one doc.
If we lynch an unclaimed Town today (leaving 2 unclaimed vanilla and the vig and the doc):
Plan A) scum odds of hitting vig Tonight = 33%
Plan B) scum odds of hitting vig Tonight = 25%, overall odds a power role will die 47.9% (doc death chance 22.9%)
If we lynch claimed vanilla today (leaving 3 unclaimed vanilla and the vig and the doc):
Plan A) scum odds of hitting vig Tonight = 25%
Plan B) scum odds of hitting vig Tonight = 20%, overall odds a power role will die 42.9% (doc death chance 22.9%)
If we lynch Scum today (leaving 3 unclaimed vanilla and the vig and the doc):
Plan A) scum odds of hitting vig Tonight = 25%
Plan B) scum odds of hitting vig Tonight = 20%, overall odds a power role will die 41.5% (doc death chance 21.5%)
Meaning that Plan B increases the odds that ONE power will be killed, but makes the doctor significantly safer because the doctor can be hiding in the claimed vanilla pool just as easily as the unclaimed pool (by my reckoning, anyway, since we don’t have conclusive evidence as to when the sleeper may have been awakened.)
The wonderful world of statistics. This is also all assuming that scum will shot in the vanilla pool for the doc rather than taking safe shots at the masons to reduce the confirmed pool.
NETA: to clarify, in plan A the doc and vig are in different pools, so the scum have to select which pool to gamble in. In plan B they’re in the same pool, mostly, so the combined percentage is appropriate.
I don’t really play this game with math, but I promise to read and at least try to comprehend all math-based proposals once they are settled into actual proposals.
For purely mechanical reasons and in hope that we hammer the Day early so that the next Day can be more productive. I have a busy weekend scheduled and I have a deadline on Monday so I won’t be able to participate as much as I would like.
If people dislike what I’m doing they can vote for me, which ironically will achieve what I’m setting out to do
If you read the earlier post, I’m assuming the vig will shoot in the “vanilla” pool in scenario A and the “not mason” pool in scenario B. In either scenario we’ve made some effort at a mass claim, so the present claim status is relatively useless.
Just in case things keep getting hairy with work, I’m putting a vote and some thoughts down early.
Vote Suburban
a) with his apparent slip about the irony if he were to end up as Sleeper, if it was a legitimate slip by a Vanilla townie, it hung a big ‘try to awaken me’ sign on his nose. On the other hand it could have been a scummy misdirection trying to look like he was a slipping Vanilla townie.
b) He did vote to lynch scummy Pleo, but was the last to grab his torch and pitchfork.
c) with no one coming forward about receiving the chicken message on Day 3, Night 2 is looking like a probable recruitment event.
d) his first Day 3 post starts with one of those statements that arguably betrays the scum dilemma. I’ve seen townies utter ‘gosh, I don’t know who to suspect’ stuff too, but consider it a data point that potentially dovetails with his being an obvious choice for waking up the morning of Day 3 suddenly scum, if he wasn’t scum already. He also lays out the early case against Townie septimus in the same post, which I later purchased a share in, unfortunately. He also ended up voting for septimus.
e) Also on Day 3, he had this little pot/kettle/black exchange with sachertorte over unprompted Vanilla claims.
f) He was not in favor of a mass claim
(though I happen to agree with his observation about a mass claim with this open set up making the game somewhat less fun, see sachertorte’s vote on pedescribe)
I agree with Cookies. On Night 2 the scum apparently targeted me to be killed. With Suburban’s slip, they would likely target him for awakening. That way, no matter which of us the jailer chose, they would either get rid of the cop or gain a teammate.
Vote Suburban Plankton
Of the claim plans, I think I favor the Mason claim since it should keep the power roles hidden a bit better. I will admit I haven’t really studied the numbers yet, but I think either plan is preferable to doing nothing.
Really, Cookies? I have my voting list right here. Few fun facts about Day 1’s voting.
there were several waves of voting for Pleo. The person who was last in the FIRST wave, placing vote EIGHT when no one else had more than two on them, was a certain Ms. Cookies.
Plankton was third from last. Tom Scud and Peeker voted after him.
Plankton’s vote pushed Pleo over the top from being tied with MentalGuy. It was, at the time, a very decisive vote.
I’m not saying that he wasn’t recruited, but honestly, he was a goddamn hero of voting on Day One compared to you–and throwing that little turd of suspicion out on him tells me you’re trying to make a case you think no one will check on.
PS anyone who didn’t read his “sleeper” statement as a joke is pinging me. It so obviously wasn’t a claim of anything that I’m skeptical anyone’s trying to hang it on him.
That doesn’t incline me to unvote him though. He could have been as Townie as the day was long when he voted Pleo and still have been recruited on Night 2.
