It’s more complicated than that. A lot of delegates are are arguably pledged to Trump, but their state legislature, at some point, deliberately declined to make it illegal to switch to someone else, even on the first ballot. Pennsylvania is a good example of a state where there is a primary, but the delegates can really do what they want, on the first ballot, if they have the conjoins.
Then there’s the Rule 40B you must have read about by now. What if Trump only has a plurality of delegates, but is also the only candidate with the required delegate majority in eight states? By the rules, he then should win – if not on the first ballot, then later. Right now, I believe that Cruz only has a majority in four states, and there’s only 19 left that will select delegates. So, at this rate, the rules say that only Trump can be nominated, plurality or majority. First ballot, fiftieth ballot, only someone who initially had a majority of the “permanent” delegates, in eight states or territories, can be nominated, and there’s a fairly good chance that the Donald will be the only one. Can that rule change? If you say yes, why is that one changeable, and 1,237 is written in stone?
THe “8 state” rule doesn’t apply to who won state primaries and caucuses, it’s simply a threshold to get a candidate on the ballot at the convention. Let’s say Trump is the only one who won eight states or more. So technically, he’d be the only guy that could be voted for on the first ballot.
So ballot 1 goes like this: 1150 for Trump, 1300 abstain.
Since as you pointed out, some states bind their delegates for multiple ballots, they could even hold a second vote with only Trump. So ballot 2 goes: 500 Trump, 2000 abstain. My numbers aren’t exact, but you get the picture.
Then we go to ballot 3, where as long as eight states are willing to put the same candidate into nomination, they can do so. This is where Paul Ryan could come up, especially if just before the convention the bigwigs have already successfully lobbied delegates to go that route. If Ryan’s name does come up on ballot 3, I don’t think there will be a ballot 4.
Will Trump win the majority of states? If so, I think it would be even more damaging to the party if they exclude Trump. Particularly when he’s been finishing 2nd in the states he loses.
The rules are the rules, and the party can claim with justification that Trump is unacceptable to the majority of Republican voters. He is winning only because of a divided field. He’d lose one on one to virtually anyone.
The other aspect you have to consider is that the most popular choice might not be someone running. We have no idea how many Republican voters are thinking, “I love Paul Ryan but he wasn’t running.” If the choice is Paul Ryan, that could very well excite the vast majority of Republican voters.
I’m thinking back to 2008. I favored Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama. But Obama won by the rules that existed. And I would have been pissed if the Democratic party had decided to simply ignore the results and appointed Clinton as the nominee. And I imagine that’s nothing to the way Obama supporters would have felt.
I think the Republican party is locked in an endless cycle of self-delusion. They’ve convinced themselves that the voters love them (ignoring the fact that more people voted for the Democratic candidate in five of the last six presidential elections).
So they fear that Trump isn’t a real Republican and he’s going to lose to Clinton. But if they can somehow push Trump out and slide a real Republican in, the nation will rejoice and vote for the real Republican.
I don’t think we’re that delusional. The real problem isn’t Trump losing. Another Republican can do that just fine, although of course we hope for victory. The problem comes if Trump actually wins. That changes the GOP forever and gives conservatives no home. And that’s a pretty large group to not have a home. That’ll cause a serious realignment.
Think of it as voter ID writ large. If your state has an x in the “open primaries” box on its ID card, its delegates can be disallowed, sorry. Now beat it, get outta here.
The rules, as they stand right now, do not allow additional candidates to be put into nomination after the first ballot. I have no doubt that will be changed, but it is not an option now. Here is the actual rule:
First note that rule 40(a) says that if there is only one candidate with the required majority in 8 states, the roll need not be called and the candidate will be elected by acclamation.
Note also rule 40(e). it says that if no candidate receives a majority, the chairman will call the roll again. It does not say that additional candidates will be nominated.
If you want to say that rule 40(e) is not well thought out, I would agree with you. It can still be changed and the convention can vote to suspend the rules if it likes.
But as it stands right now, if Trump is the only one to get the 8-state majority, he is the only one the convention can elect, barring a change to or suspension of the rules.
By the way, Trump does have the 8-state majority right now. The Northern Mariana Islands put him over the top.
The problem with that rule is that if the delegates just refuse to nominate someone then there’s an impasse. Since the party must have a nominee, and that nominee must win a majority of votes, a rule change in this case would be justified. Although the rule’s language is vague enough that the chair(Paul Ryan) could simply rule that new candidates can be nominated after the 2nd ballot, or he could hold a dozen with no winner just to show that the convention is trying to agree on someone but can’t.
The intent of rule 40(b) is that a nominee must demonstrate the support of a majority of delegates in elected contests, but the text just says they must demonstrate the support of a majority of delegates. Once the delegates are unbound, they no longer have to support Trump.
Another way they can avoid nominating Trump is to actually just nominate no one and then Paul Ryan runs as an “independent”, and the bulk of the GOP endorses him.
I agree that the rule has many logical flaws to it. But it’s the rule. (And I think it probably will be changed.) The Romney campaign wrote it so that when he ran for re-election in 2016 there would be no dissension or opposition on the convention floor.
Note that rule 40(a) does not require a majority of the delegates to vote for Trump if he is the only candidate eligible under rule 40(b). If there is only one candidate eligible, then the roll call can be skipped. Of course, the convention chair can pretend that he did not hear a motion to skip the roll call.
If Kasich wins fewer than 8 primaries (seems like a good bet, at least for now), chances are you’d have both Trump and Cruz being against a change to the rule. Good luck changing the rules over their combined opposition.
At any rate, the problem with a brokered convention is that there’s no brokers anymore. On a second ballot, you’d have a couple thousand free agents, and total chaos. And unlike back in the pre-TV days, the shitshow would be on national TV, and display to the nation what’s been obvious for awhile to those of us who’ve been paying attention: the GOP is incapable of governing itself, let alone the country. Even low-information voters would get the message.
The GOP insiders know this, and that is why they’ll fall in line behind Trump if he’s far and away in the lead come June 8, even if he’s short of 1237, and make sure he wins on the first ballot.