Has the Republican leadership thought about the possible consequences if it gets its way? Suppose they succeed in bypassing Trump and appointing Ryan or somebody like him as the nominee - and then lose the election to Clinton? Trump and all his supporters won’t just be mad about losing the nomination - they’ll be claiming the leadership cost them the general election. True or false, it’ll be easy for Trump to claim he would have beaten Clinton if the out-of-touch leaders hadn’t betrayed the base. After that, Trump won’t just be an annoyance - he’ll be part of a movement to overthrow those leaders.
So those leaders would be better off standing back and letting Trump have his chance. Then when he loses they can step in and say “See? This is what we were saying. We let an outsider have a chance and he lost. Now it’s time to let the grownups run things again.”
Really? I have been watching the primaries/caucuses pretty closely and I have yet to see ANY state where Drumpf has received 50% or more (isn’t this the definition of majority) of the votes.
Also, is there any SINGLE web site that shows the percentage of votes that each candidate received in the primaries/caucuses that have already voted? I’ve googled using terms like “every primary,” “each state”, etc., and so far, google seems to want me to read about the Nevada caucus or the North Carolina primary. Despite using the term “percentage of votes”, I get loads of sites that want to tell me how many delegates each candidate has amassed. I would like to skip looking up percentages for each of the contests already completed, if at all possible.
Oops! Just reread Rule 40b. I first thought it said majority of votes, so please disregard my first statment.
And think about what’s going to happen in Cleveland outside the convention center. BLM protesters and Trump supporters and NRA advocates and the Leftist who show up at all of these things does not sound like a party I want to be at.
I don’t want to speak for John but you are the one who brought up litigation. So I’ll repeat John’s final question - what charges would be brought against the GOP?
I’m not speaking for CarnalK either, but I would assume this litigation would be in the civil courts, probably alleging a breach of contract (he entered their contest under THIS set of rules, and now they’re changing the rules out from under him and causing him financial loss). It might not be a winning argument, but I can see it tying up the party for a very long time.
“Litigation” most often, though not always, is used to refer to civil disputes and that’s what I meant. If the rules committee added Rule 40f “No one named Donald Trump shall be placed on the ballot” I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump sued. IANAL so I wondered why that would be laughable. And I wasn’t the one who brought it up.
Let’s leave aside that there is likely very little chance that (Trump winning) and play out some possible outcomes. Which is the least bad for conservatives, however you want to define them (movement, fiscal, whatever)?
Playing out from a presumption that Trump has a solid plurality the least poor outcome is he runs and loses.
Him winning is, as you point out, is conservatives of various sorts without a home.
Him not getting the nomination and its going to someone with many fewer delegates fractures the party and leads to … what? Those voters staying in but disrupting and taking over leadership more in the future? Forming another party? Staying home out of disgust for the next few cycles? None good from the conservative GOP POV. And the GOP still is unlikely to gain the White House.
Him winning the nom and losing the general, badly, with many but not all individual downticket candidates distancing themselves as best they can, no major funders helping him, and various powers that be not explicitly working against him but not helping him either. Result no White House this time and some limited downticket negative impacts, but some chance of emerging with a chance to repair the relationship with the current Trumpeters.
Yeah there will be some backstabber accusations but less than if he was not given the chance at all.
None are good but one is less bad (again, from the conservative GOP POV).
Yes it’s 8 states with a majority of delegates. The rule combined with waiting later to have large WTA events suggests that the idea is that by the time you get to this point in the campaign the field will have been culled and the leader should lock it by preventing weaker candidates from making a succesful late run with a string of big wins or small WTA wins. The idea was to prevent someone pulling an Obama v. Hillary where the presumed frontrunner can’t put it away and gets ground down.
Right. Democrats and independents will flock to Trump because the Republicans were mean to him. Don’t bet on it.
Anyhow it will be hard for him to get on ballots in a lot of states.
aceplace, I can’t see Trump winning in that case, but he could play the role of Teddy Roosevelt in 1912, where he actually outpolled the Republican candidate (and current President) William H. Taft, which led to the election of Woodrow Wilson.
Although comparing Trump to T.R. causes my brain to asplode…
And Rufus, I was nodding in agreement to this:
I think the TV coverage would be devastating. Be honest, folks; you might have watched bits and pieces of the DNC and RNC in the past, kind of a background noise and to listen to a speech or two and the candidates’ acceptance speech, but it wasn’t must-see TV (like the NCAA Basketball Tournament…). But this one, especially if Trump doesn’t get a majority and it goes more than one vote (unheard of in the modern, 24-Hour News deluge Era), may become riveting…and not, I suspect, in a good way for the Republican Party.
Doesn’t matter. Just the news coverage will be deadly to the Republicans and remind voters of the whole primary and convention mess. I’m sure Trump wouldn’t care if he won or lost.
I was the one who brought up litigation and I meant it as a civil case. One can sue a private organization for not following its own rules and that’s what potentially could happen here.
How many states does Cruz have a majority of the delegates in? I’m seeing Texas, Kansas, Idaho, and Maine. Has he gotten a majority of the delegates anywhere else yet? He’s certainly got time to get to 8, but it’s not a done deal yet.
Their worry is if they do this, it will result in a bunch of Republicans who can’t stand to vote for Trump or Clinton just staying home, which means they don’t just lose the presidency, they lose a bunch of House and Senate seats, and Governorships, and so on, all down the line.
It’s clear that there’s no obviously good move for the establishment GOP. There may not even be an obviously least-bad move.
Bet there won’t be any rock songs bemoaning this one, though.