I don’t buy it. I don’t think she’s as much of lock on the nomination or the presidency as everyone here thinks she is. Forget the shambles the GOP is currently facing, all’s it takes is one charismatic, young, fresh, non-establishment, inspiring candidate to flip a campaign upside down…just ask Hillary Clinton. I don’t see her wanting to trudge through another campaign for the presidency and go through what she went through in the 90s and 2008.
She’s served, she’s achieved more power and prestige than any woman in American history, she’s currently beloved by most Americans, she’s respected internationally, but she’s not a masochist. And she’s not young. It’s an exhausting process, and there’s way too much for her to lose.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I suspect Hillary’s going to retire to raise money for her pet causes, enjoy the bully pulpit of elder stateswoman, and make buttloads of cash on the speaking tour.
Definition of TORTUROUS
1a : causing torture <torturous inquisitions>
b : very unpleasant or painful <a torturous day> <torturous self-doubts>
2: painfully difficult or slow <the torturous course of the negotiations>
I know that “tortuous” means to contain many twists or bends, but I think that Happy Lendervedder used the correct word. If HC were to run, her path would not merely be bendy or twisty, but would indeed be unpleasant and painful.
I would guess the same thing. I could just as easily propose that eliminating daylight saving time, the designated hitter, and left lane exits on highways would have the same effect.
tor·sion (tôrshn)
n.
1.
a. The act of twisting or turning.
b. The condition of being twisted or turned.
2. The stress or deformation caused when one end of an object is twisted in one direction and the other end is held motionless or twisted in the opposite direction.
True - similar thing with Mourdock in Indiana. And back in 2010, what should have been walkover (R) Senate pick-ups in Delaware and Nevada were wasted thanks to O’Donnell and Angle running on the Silly Party platform. But at the same time those were happenning, the Tea Party was solid in the Congressional-district and Statehouse campaigns in 2010 and 2012, so they do have a pool of candidates who know better than to say something utterly bizarre on open mic.
They’re not backing off, they still feel fresh for the fight and ready to double down because they can smell the Old Men’s fear. C’mon, Karl, Election night was not enough, let me see that sweat on your lip as you feel the power slipping away…
Ronnie > Dick is not a hard choice if that’s the universe we limit ourselves to, but then again there’s people who would take *either *of those late leaders over both the latter-day Rove/W-era neocons, who are all that you said they are, AND over anyone likely to get a straight-A score from the Tea Party as well. The Teapartiers would consider Nixon to not have ever been a Republican at all and would find Reagan’s actually-passed-and-enacted policies (as opposed to his inspirational/aspirational speeches and statements) just barely tolerable as compromises.
Were I to HAVE to choose a Republican I’d take George Bush the Elder. But choices from my lifetime are kind of limited.
Mother of mercy… I’d dig her getting the last laugh but please pass the Brain Bleach for those metaphors…
Exactly the same thing happened to the Tories in Britain after Tony Blair came in: they effectively ceded the centre ground without a fight and their grass-roots membership elected a procession of lame duck leaders based on their own priorities, rather than what would win them a general election (to be fair to Hague, IDS and Howard, they were capable in their own ways, but none of them had what it took to lead their party to general election success).
I think eventually (i.e. maybe not next election) the Republican party will come back with an electable centre-leaning candidate and the tea party and their ilk will return to the wing, rather than trying to control the 'Pubs.
And as a lawyer I advise all to be sure to confuse neither with “tortous,” i.e., conduct constituting a tort; a tort being an actionable civil wrong, usually having nothing to do with pastry.
Except that loses. There already is a ruthlessly centrist party, the Dems. The Trog Right isn’t expendable, they can’t do it without them. The Bizness Pubbies had been scamming the knuckle-walkers for years, pretending to give a shit about their priorities, flattering them, petting them, and forgetting them.
And it just isn’t working any more. That is reason number one they are in such a lather to try and rig the system.
It doesn’t work just to cede the centre to your rival, voters in the middle count double in any system where there are only two real contenders as every vote you lose in the middle is a potential vote that your rival gains. The Republicans may lose fighting for the centre, but at least they would stand more of a chance.
They need the Tea Party constituency to vote for them, but what they don’t need them is to dictate policy for them. The right wing of the party would still vote for a more centrist candidate. They might not like it, they’re not about to vote Democrat because of it.
Of course by ignoring their right wing too much there is a danger that they could lose voters either to a third party candidate out-flanking on them on the right or to less voter engagement. However that risk should not be over-exaggerated. A vote lost to either a 3rd party candidate or due to apathy is not a vote gained by the Democrats and so is not as important as a vote lost in the centre. Also even those on the right would recognize that a 3rd party or not voting for a Republican candidate because they are not right-wing enough is self-defeating. They fear any Democratic candidate far more than they fear a centre-leaning Republican one.
If the economy is on the road to recovery and the Democrats can put up a good candidate and the Republicans don’t reform themselves (which they show no sign of doing), the Republicans may find themselves on the end of an even worse loss next time around. I think that would serve as a major wake-up call to them and the influence of the Tea Party wing will instantly evaporate to nothing AND then you will see the kind of changes being made to drag themselves to the centre and make them electable.
Just like the GOP the Democratic party has a troublesome base. These people are the ones who vote in primaries and they have their pet issues like any other motivated political group. In 2007 their big issue was the Iraq war. Hillary had played it safe and been an enthusiastic war backer. Obama took a risk and mildly, with lots of wiggle room ashould it become necessary later, opposed the war. And that single issue cost Hillary the nomination. There was just so much anger against her in the base and so many people that just couldn’t support her because of Iraq. Obama was still a rank outsider going into the first Dem primary but when the numbers came out and the exit polling was done it was Iraq that sank her. After that her campaign gradually crumbled.
That’s ancient history now and she’s still ruthlessly ambitious. All pols at that level are and have not a little ego too – look at McCain trying to get elected in his mid seventies and unable to deal with the fact that the electorate preferred somebody else.
If she stays healthy the Democratic primaries will be a coronation and if nothing disastrous happens to the country/economy under Obama she’ll walk the 2016 election. In the meantime she’ll write a book, do lots of speeches, charity work and keep building up the donor base that the Clintons have and take over the Obama donor base/all the election databases the Obama campaign have.
By 2016, Hillary will have been a major public figure for a quarter of a century. People will have largely made up their minds about what they think of her generally. They can try re-running Hillary Hate, but it’ll do more to rally support for her than opposition to her.
Not to mention, a few more years of Seniors Wildly Indignant about Nearly Everything dying off will improve the chances of every Democrat across the board.
If she stays healthy, she’ll have to run against Joe Biden, Martin O’Malley, and probably Brian Schweitzer. I think Biden will prove to be a paper tiger, but a lot of people will be ready for someone more of Obama’s generation than Hillary’s, and O’Malley will be a strong contender. Nobody wins 2016 in a walk.
