If one believes RCP, though I do think they have a rightish bias, there are 45 safe, likely, or leaning Dem seats and 46 equivalent for the Reps. So there are 9 seats to decide control, both sides need to pick up 5 of the tossups. They are AK, CO, IA, MI, KY, AR, LA, GA, and NC.
I like the Democrats’ chances in CO, IA, MI, and GA. If McConnell beaten in KY, a distinct possiblity, then Dems gain control. How sweet it would be if the deciding seat is McConnell’s loss.