We might not even know which party controls the Senate until several weeks after election night.
I’m pretty sure it does. He (Silver or Enten) has discussed this at some length.
I’ve been avoiding dabbling in this thread until closer to election day, given all of the uncertainty with the polls as we reach the home stretch of all these campaigns. I still stand by what I said in another thread several months ago: any way that you slice it, six seats is a tall order for the GOP to gain. However, this map is remarkably unfavorable for the Dems, and - aside from Ernst in IA (who has her marginal lead likely because Braley is a lousy candidate himself) & Gardner in CO (whose asinine positions haven’t resonated with voters for whatever reason) - the GOP has managed to avoid the Todd Akin problem by not nominating a slew of downright crazy candidates (at least in terms of how the voters perceive them, anyway). I still think it’s possible for the Dems to maintain their grip on the Senate, but it’ll be a nail-biter if they do & largely because of factors not easily captured in polls.
So, I’m hereby predicting a gain of anywhere between 5-7 seats for the GOP.
If the Dems can hold the GOP to just shy of majority pickups, it’ll be due to their fabled GOTV efforts that will have managed to bring them up a few points in Colorado, Iowa, & Alaska. Of those, I think the heaviest lift is in Colorado, given that Gardner has been leading in nearly every CO poll since September. On a similar note, the Dems would owe their continued majority to Orman’s ousting of Roberts in Kansas, so the former candidate will need to be enticed to caucus with the Democrats. I think that Nunn wins Georgia - but just barely - & that Hagan wins NC. In this scenario, Landrieu also wins her runoff in Louisiana, whereas I don’t see any conceivable way for Pryor to hang on in Arkansas.
In the name of all that there is, I can’t even begin to comprehend the things going through Kentuckians’ minds that would inspire them to vote for McConnell, but yeah…Grimes isn’t going to oust him this cycle. Maybe the Dems should have pulled the trigger & nominated Ashley Judd after all; perhaps it would have made the race closer.
Thing is, their fabled GOTV efforts only really materialize in general elections. Have they ever been able to surprise in a midterm that way?
Another factor is simply base disillusionment. The Democrats seem to have perfectly played the immigration issue so as to demoralize both African-American and Latino voters. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see both groups turn out at lower rates than 2010.
This gives me great hope for an upset. With your record on election predictions, you are a perfect reverse barometer.
You fail statistics 101. I may have a 100% wrong record on elections here on SDMB, but my sample size is one.
And even then, if it ends up 51-49 Republicans, are we that sure that the Democrats won’t be able to turn one of them to an Independent that caucuses with the Democrats?
In theory, sure, but who do you see as “flippable”?
Your sample size is basically every single thing you say, it’s a bit larger than one.
I think that is going to be the result, and as I do not expect the teahadists to lie down we can expect a lot of insane and dumb legislation that will churn the stomachs of many Republicans that do consider themselves still moderates and that listen to science.
The silver line to me is that the next 2 years we will see a lot of evidence from the extremists pushing a very reckless agenda. And that many moderate Republicans that thought that it was safe to vote for the current crop of Republicans in this election will see that they made a mistake.
Police brutality is a widespread problem, but it’s a secondary concern to you because it’s already against the law. If you don’t care about enforcing real laws, why should anybody believe you’re sincere about whatever law you’re proposing?
The whole libertarian phenomenon has become nothing but a fig leaf to cover conservatives smart enough to realize that if they want to preserve the existing power structure, they have to start capitulating on minor social issues. Hence you’re all suddenly concerned about this one time a SWAT team went after a student loan violator, but widespread police brutality, hey, that’s cool because it’s already illegal.
Police brutality is a concern, but do you really believe it’s more widespread than legal abuse of power?
You can never be sure, but it’s unlikely. There are no disgruntled members of the GOP caucus in the Senate like a Jim Jeffords who would be a good target. On the other hand, the Democrats have to keep Joe Manchin, a guy who might benefit from switching given how red his state is becoming and how conservative he already is.
I’ve said that Democrats’ GOTV effort will fail. Does this mean you predict it will succeed? Or is your statement as cowardly as it sounds?
Depressing news: Republican Joni Ernst has charged to achieve a 7-point lead over Democrat Bruce Braley in a new Iowa Poll.
The last few previous polls had the candidates extremely close.
The trial lawyers are in a panic about that one. Because as you know, they have too little representation in Congress.
I think the republicans are likely to barely take the senate but it wouldn’t be a huge unthinkable upset if they didn’t.
Its kinda simple, really. If they “win” by a negative half a million votes, its a mandate. Lose, and its voter fraud.
It’s very simple. Republicans will control the House, and the Senate. Both. Together.
Gee, no shit, Sherlock? Let me check here…by golly, you’re right! Wow! Feather in your cap, for sure!
Gloat while you can. Tick-tock. Tick-tock.