In June Nate Silvers was calling it very close to even, with a slight tilt toward the GOP. As Silver said, on an even money bet he’d take the GOP to win the Senate.
We really need to get the Republicans talking about rape. They love rape, we need them to proclaim it.
So basically, Republicans wanted to renege on an already agreed upon agreement (the budget), using the credit of the entire country as a bargaining chip?
Cite?
I agree. But a) the minority party usually seeks concessions in debt ceiling increases, and b) it was the Democrats who took a “no negotiations” tack, not the Republicans.
In this case the Democrats were right to do so, but it doesn’t really fit with the argument that the Republicans refuse to deal.
Demonstrating what you actually think the odds are.
the odds are slightly better than even money, although only slightly. I’d actually put the odds at 70-80% myself, but only if Republicans don’t screw it up. They’ve screwed it up two times in a row.
Interesting take on brinksmanship:
A: I don’t think the Republicans will take the Senate.
B: Oh, yeah? Care to bet on it? If you refuse, you’ll show you don’t believe what you said.
A: Oh, yeah? Care to give ten to one odds? If you refuse, you’ll show that YOU don’t believe what you said.
Then multiple rounds of “negotiation”, each would-be bettor suggesting the other won’t accept terms because of dishonesty.
I don’t think you or DSeid understand how people bet. People take a bet if they think there are better than 50% odds of winning. Usually much better. So giving 2:1 in this case basically reduces the odds of winning to 50% or less. Why would I make that bet?
I think the lottery and casinos everywhere show that people will take a bet even if there’s less than 50% odds of winning.
People misjudge the odds frequently, or know the odds are poor but are hoping for a big jackpot. Or sometimes it’s just fun.
I don’t know, I’m kinda hoping Democrats start talking about gun control.
If they stick to gun registration it should be a winning issue for them.
True, although I’m not sure that counts as “gun control”.
Which of those quotes supports your position?
I think the odds are about 65%. That makes an even money bet a good one for me.
I think the odds of a coin flip are 50-50. You agree, I assume, both that those are the correct odds and that I believe those to be the correct odds.
Right? So why would I offer an even-money bet on a coin flip? I offer a bet to leverage the difference between your expectation of results and mine.
I’ll happily take a bet with less than a 50% chance of winning. How about we bet on the roll of a six-sided die? I’ll pay you $1 each time I’m wrong; you pay me $7 each time I’m right. I clearly have less than a 50% chance of winning each bet.
People bet because they have an expectation of coming out ahead. They know their chances of winning the lottery are tiny, but the reward is immense.
And it’s true they play casino games, too, in defiance of the odds. I think there are two reasons behind that behavior: entertainment and foolishness.
So what odds will you offer? I won’t bet you straight up, because that’s a bad bet based on what we (and notably, Nate Silver) know now.
I don’t think you understand my point - it’s not about the wager, it’s about suggesting the other guy is a liar.
Yes it does.
It would make a 3:2 odds bet a reasonably good one too. Still better than 65%.
The fact is that the lack of willingness to give odds much better than even money means that you appreciate the fact that odds are in reality not too much better than even money … hence even money is a reasonable bet for you, giving odds, not.
I’m with Wang on this one. I’m not going to bet 50/50 that a coin will come up heads three times out of five or more, or even 4 times out of seven … like you I’m looking for odds that are in my favor. Even if I discounted Alaska as not really in play it is still at best 50/50, so 50/50 is not good odds. And I wouldn’t bother betting 50/50 on something I thought really was 50/50 … I’d also only take a 50/50 odds bet if I thought it was better than 50/50 I’d win.
But I also would not have much confidence that three out of five won’t happen … and clearly the odds you offer show that you don’t either.
65% at this point means as Wang put it:
The odds right now are slightly in favor of a GOP majority but the odds of a Democratic majority is not a long shot. They are, as of now, the marginal underdogs going into this battle with the information we currently have. I bet on underdogs all the time … but I want good odds when I do.