That’s not how elections usually work and it gives me little confidence in Wang to hear that he’s using that kind of thinking.
It’s not 50/50 in the sense that each race is going to be a coin flip, it’s 50/50 in that by November Democrats could be a few points more popular or a few points less popular. If the national mood softens towards Democrats in the next 2 1/2 months, then probably all Democratic incumbents win and they perhaps even win in Georgia and/or Kentucky. They end up only down one Senate seat overall. But if the mood sours on them a little more, maybe because Obama drops down to 39% approval or less, then each Democratic candidate perhaps loses 2-3 points and thus lose all the close races(and making races like New Hampshire way too close for comfort), which nets Republicans nine seats.
I’ll give you 3:1. You put up $100; I’ll put up $300. If the Senate Majority Leader next Congress is a Republican, I win – if he or she is a Democrat, you win.
Don’t bank on Crazy Joe bowing out, even after he loses the primary. He’s likely to make himself an Independent write-in. If you think that can’t make a difference, I’d invite you to look at what happened when Miller beat out Murkowski in the primary a couple of years ago. She ran as an Independent and kicked his ass. Crazy Joe can’t win against Sullivan, but he may be a spoiler. Sullivan is also being portrayed by the left as an East Coast outsider. Carpetbaggers don’t usually do well there.
All this blather. Don’t you remember, Nate Silver called the last election with remarkable accuracy? He says right now, the Republicans will likely win the Senate if things go as they are now, but it’s very close to an even money bet that they will. If the Democrats step up their game and the Republicans don’t, they could win it. If the Republicans fuck it up like they do on occasion, they could lose it. But Silver, who to my mind is the very representation of the concept of “the smart money” would take the Republicans to win on an even money bet. Those are the facts on the ground.
Many people, when watching a horse race, find it much more exciting if they’ve bought a ticket.
I’m a natural pessimist and thought seriously of betting GOP to win the White House in 2008. :eek: Give me some credit: that was before McCain picked his running-mate.
Right, any statement that begins “If the election were being held tomorrow …” can be safely dismissed. It ain’t tomorrow, it’s November. Campaigns have their own pace, their own rate at which people, and which kind, pay attention, their own pace of press coverage, etc. Lots of ball yet to be played.
True, but given the results of “six year itch” elections, things are likely to only get worse for Democrats. Unless Republicans try to impeach the President, which is how they blew their last Six Year Itch election. And which is also why Democrats want to make their supporters think impeachment is imminent. It motivated them last time, might do it this time. Even if it’s not true. Democrats think about as much of their supporters’ intelligence as I do.
More of Hannity’s historical cycle theories to the rescue?
Republican impeachment talk had roughly jack to do with the last election, as I’m sure you actually know. But kudos for recognizing that there was one.
Then again, Republican voters voted for Bush in 2004, after they KNEW what an idiot he was, because they’d rather have a drink with him than John Kerry. You had to be SERIOUSLY stupid to vote for Bush in 2004, and almost half the American electorate did that. The Dem voters may be stupid, but they got NOTHING on Republican voters in the Dumbness Department.
