Earlier today the House of Representatives voted down Speaker Johnson’s attempt to pass a continuing resolution (CR) to keep the federal government operating after the end of the fiscal year on September 30. Johnson had included in the CR language requiring proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections. But the bill failed when almost all Democrats and 14 Republicans voted against it. Meanwhile Trump is screaming at Republicans on social media not to abandon the proof of citizenship language.
And so here we are again, with a dysfunctional GOP House unable to get its shit together and a government shutdown 12 days away. Are they dumb enough to force a shutdown a month before the election? Probably not, but I never bet against the self-destructiveness of House Republicans.
Which illustrates the problem for the remaining semi-sentient Republicans.
They know that whatever Trump’s popularity, that a shutdown will hurt their own chances across the board down ballot. Trump’s chances? I long ago gave up trying to figure out what would or would not affect his chances!
But the language used in the the twuth quoted by @Smapti indicates that “illegals” voting is going to be one of his outs if he loses again, because the Democrats are cheating. So this is all tied up in his ego, and he’s not likely to let go of it.
I find myself swimming in schadenfreude for the Republicans right now.
Honestly though, I think a noticeable percentage of them would be happy to be in a (slim) minority again, they seem more comfortable that way, as they have zero responsibilities to get anything done, and can grandstand on their morals (professed, not actual) and advertise to their base all day long.
None of his assertions is true. Yet he is now the unelected ruling monarch of the country. Ironically, the party that made him such is called Republican.
Every previous shutdown has been a year or more before the next election, which gave voters plenty of time to move on to other things. Forcing a shutdown literally as some states are beginning early voting would be all but suicidal.
When voters go to the polls they wonder if they are better off now and the shutdown will make them think they are not. I suspect the kneejerk reaction will be to blame those currently in power (i.e. Harris).
I guess anything’s possible, but that’s not how these things play out. The Senate will pass a “clean” CR with plenty of Democratic and Republican votes, and Biden and Harris will loudly call for the House to do the same. It’ll be clear to all but the most willfully blind that House Republicans and their Orange Jesus are the problem.
But I don’t think they’re gonna do it. Johnson will blink and allow an open vote on a clean, short-term CR to kick the can down the road into a lame duck session. It’ll pass with mostly Democratic votes. This has been the play this entire session on must-pass bills.
I don’t think you’re wrong precisely, but I’m pretty sure that any actual remaining “undecideds” who will actually show up and vote (as opposed to people who claim to be unsure but actually have heavy leans, they’re just not sure if they care enough to actually vote) will actually blame the House/Republicans especially in @flurb’s almost certain scenario in the Senate.
The ones with a lean were going to blame their respective enemies (we’re past them being opponents) no matter what. And it looks like we’re far too likely to come down to another nailbiter where that slim true undecided sliver is going to have an outsize influence on the final outcome.
Well, it was not a government shutdown but enough people thought things were bad enough to elect Donald Trump as president in 2016. In 2020 he got the second most votes anyone ever has in a US presidential election.
Can’t say I have a lot of faith in American voters.
And yet, we can see them threatening this exact stupidity in real time. If they knew what they were doing, they wouldn’t even threaten this. No matter how it plays out now, it makes them look bad 6 weeks before the election.
But Mitch McConnell seems certain a shutdown would hurt his side, and I figure he’s a real expert.
But if you are correct, what about this:
My own upend-conventional-wisdom idea here is that the SAVE Act Trump is demanding would help the Democrats, as they are better educated and thus more likely to follow complex voter registration instructions correctly.
Suppose Biden said: The Republicans are giving me a choice between shutting down the government, and making it harder to register to vote. I apologize to Americans for making it harder to register, but I cannot let the government shut down. I think this might take some wind out of Trump’s sails on an issue – greater proof of citizenship to vote – that I think would poll quite well (since voter ID polls well with 79 percent in favor).
The Dems want a clean CR. No need for the amendment requiring all who vote in federal elections be American citizens, because there is an existing law that already requires it. (See 18 USC 611: Voting by aliens.) The purpose of this amendment is to deliberately disenfranchise existing citizens from voting who cannot explicitly prove they are citizens.
The Dems also do not want a six month CR. A CR of that length flat-lines spending at current levels for six months, taking into account the world will not flat-line, either. A six month CR also comes up against an existing sequestration law mandating immediate across the board budget cuts. So if the Republicans retain at least one House after the election, they will again do nothing, allowing automatic budget cuts to go into effect, potentially devastating the economy.
The Dems made a strategic view today during the debate. A six month CR places the military at a serious disadvantage in readiness. Regardless of your views about the military, a six month CR means geo-politics are severely hamstrung if the Ukraine war takes a turn as well as the current Israeli war with Hamas. Of course, Trump wants nothing more to end all support for Ukraine and NATO, no to mention supports Netanyahu’s hardline war stance.
Oh, yeah. A shutdown will be costly to the economy, again playing into Trump’s hands before and after the election. So even if a shutdown is seen as costly to the Republicans weeks before an election, it plays quite nicely with Trump, and much worse if Trump is elected.
