Gray 45% Arnie 26%??

Stay with me this gets complicated.

OK so the California recall election was made up of two questions right:
1)Do you want to recall Davis yes/no?
2)Who do you want to be Governor?

My question is this: did the people who voted for Davis to stay Governor vote on both questions or just the first one?

If they voted for Davis in both questions then all is coo and Arnie is the victor. But if they only voted for him in the first question and left th second one blank then that would mean:
Davis got 45% of the total vote.
Arnie got 48% OF THE REMAINING 55%. THis would mean that Arnie actually only got about 26% of the vote.

Davis wins?

Now since the news media is saying that Bustamante came second with 30-something it would suggest to me that the people who voted for Davis in the first question did not also vote for him in the second.

What gives?

A NO vote on the recall was, in effect, a vote for Davis. Davis was not listed again on the Candidates section. This wouldn’t make any sense, since if he were recalled by a majority, it seems highly unlikely that a majority would then vote to put him back in office.

The ballot was set up so that there were two questions (actually, a ton more on issues and propositions, but for the purposes of this question we’ll pretend there were two): one was whether or not you wanted to recall Davis.

REGARDLESS of your answer to that question, you got to answer the second question, which was who you wanted to be governor in the event that Davis was recalled.

So you could vote to recall Davis and put in Arnie. You could also vote NOT to recall Davis and put in Arnie. The answers were independent of one another.

So, no, Arnie didn’t get 55% of the remaining votes. Whatever percent he got, he got of all votes cast for candidates.

Make sense?
Make sense?

Sorry about the double “Make sense?”. Not questioning your intelligence. Starting to wonder about mine own, though. sigh

Perhaps the questions you and others have raised will cause the citizens of California to reexamine their recall process. Then again, they might not (resisting a gratuitous joke at the expense of Californians), but it’s their state. [shrug]

It is entirely possible for a California voter to vote against the recall (for Davis, essentially), and to vote for Schwarzenegger as well. Sorta like saying, “Okay, if Davis gets kicked out anyway, I’d rather have Arnie than McClintock or Bustamonte,” for instance.

There’s no reason to believe that Schwarzenegger was elected by only 25% of the voters.

Part 2 didn’t need a majority, just a plurality. It was possible for Davis to get a bigger vote than the top challenger and still get replaced by him, which would be hard to justify, but that apparently didn’t happen. Looks like Schwarzenegger 48%, Davis 45%, in effect.

With 99% of the votes in, it’s 3.65 million votes for Arnie, 3.52 million votes for Davis (no recall). 4.3 million votes were cast to recall the governor.

I don’t think so - these numbers are not directly comparable. You would have to assume that many of Schwarzenegger’s supporters also voted no on the recall - Bustamente got about 1/3 of the vote or so. Clearly some of the Schwarzenegger/McClintock support came from people whose first preference was to keep Davis. I suggested earlier in the campaign that if Davis had been allowed to run on the ballot to replace himself he would have been unbeatable (assuming that Bustamente and other Demos stayed out) - I think this still holds true.

Those were approximations. I don’t have better numbers yet, Izzy. You’re closer to Cali news, though.

On preview, grump has 'em, thanks - Schwarzenegger did apprently get more votes than Davis, by about those percentages. Vox populi, vox Dei.

That’s not my point. Even if the numbers are accurate, you can’t stack up the numbers of Davis against those of Schwarzenegger, since many people voted for both. And since the numbers for Davis count first, you half to give all those votes to Davis in a hypothetical head-to-head election.

Of course, Davis may have also benefited from people who are in principle opposed to recalls - he may not have done as well in a general election. Still, as I framed it, with Davis running as a candidate on the replacement side of the recall, I think he wins. Essentially, Davis got 45% of the vote while running directly against all the other candidates. The others got their votes while not having to run against Davis.

Interestingly, Arnold only got a very few more votes (3,575,590*) than Davis did in the 2002 elections (3,533,490). Which I would think leaves him vulnerable. Vulnerable to what, I couldn’t say.

*with 99% of the votes counted

Another interesting statistic: contrary to some reports yesterday, voter turnout in the recall was actually lower than in the 2002 CA elections.

So a “Recall Arnold” effort would require even fewer signatures than the Davis recall. Not that I’m advocating such a thing, mind you.

First, the official numbers:
Shall GRAY DAVIS be recalled (removed) from the Office of Governor?
Candidates to succeed GRAY DAVIS as Governor if he is recalled.

And some exit polls:
What voters said (pdf file)
Exit poll results (also pdf).

Izzy, speaking as a Californian who voted against the recall, and for Arnold: if the two had been head-to-head, I would have voted for Arnold. I voted against the recall because I thought it unfair to recall so soon after being legitimately elected. How many other No/Arnold voters would have done the same I don’t know. I haven’t been able to find an exit poll that asked that question.

I’m unclear of what you mean here. Are you saying that in a general election you would vote for Arnold but not in a recall setting? Would you have voted for Davis had he been on the replacement ballot? If not, you’ve kind of contradicted yourself, because as you set it up, had both of your votes been successful, Davis would have won, while you are saying you would have preferred Arnold.

Unless you just meant your no on recall as a sort of protest vote, when you really preferred a yes outcome. Otherwise, it would seem that while you might like Arnold better than Davis, in this particular instance you prefer Davis (due to anti-recall principles, as I suggested in my previous post).

Or maybe you have some other reason. But in any event, you certainly can’t assume that this applies to everyone or even most voters - I still maintain that the votes for Davis and Arnold cannot be directly compared against each other, for the reasons given above.

The trouble is that Davis was unable to run on the second question. One might prefer Davis as governor, and vote against the recall. But given that Davis might lose the recall, you would vote for your second most preferred person on the second part of the ballot. That is, you vote no because Davis is your first choice, you vote for Arnold because he is your second choice after Davis. Although I don’t think there were many people who voted this way, it is certainly logically possible.

But even Pleonast, who voted this way, did it for a different reason. He didn’t like Davis, but thought the recall was unfair. If there had been a runoff election between Davis and Arnold he would have voted for Arnold. He didn’t like Davis, Davis wasn’t his first choice for governor, but thought the recall was unfair enough to overide that.a

But you guys are missing something important. I head to head contest against Davis and Arnold would not have McClintock. He got abotu 13% of the vote. None of his votes would’ve gone to Davis. Most would’ve gone to Arnold. I think it’s safe to say that Arnold would’ve gotten another 10% if McClintock had not been on the ballot.

But this is all crazy talk. We’ll never know. Arnold is the governor, and that’s all that matters.

Lemur has me right. I do not like Gray under any circumstance. But I think the recall itself sets a bad precedent that I’d prefered to have avoided.

Izzy, you are correct that comparing no votes on the recall to votes for Arnold is not a fair comparison. But I also think Arnold would have beat Gray head-to-head. I just haven’t any exit poll results that prove or disprove that.

The one good thing about the recall (imho) is that Arnold got to be elected directly by the general electorate instead of having to go through a Republican primary. He thus owes nothing to the conservative-social wing of the GOP.

Keep in mind that the CA GOP ran a traditonal conservative, Bill Simon, against Davis int he '02 election and got beaten. Davis was not popular, but Simon just blew it. I think they’ve learned their lesson and that Arnold would’ve gotten the nomination had this been a regular election. But I guess we won’t know until next time around when the GOP has to pick someone besides Arnold to run. That’ll be quite a ways down the road…