No really, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow today which means, mythically speaking, that we will have 6 more weeks of winter. Damn !! Now why, you may ask, would I Gabe a Doper care ? Well guess what - old Phil and 137 years of his ancestors have been right 80% of the time. Let me type that again, the groundhog, over a century, has been correct 80% of the time ! I cannot speak for your local weathermen/weatherwomen but around here they are lucky if they are right 80% of time. So here it is, a rodent coming out of a hole is as accurate as a human with a college degree. Any guesses as to why ?
(The “80%” number comes from both MetroSource and APWire reports.)
Gabriel, have you ever seen the Punxsutawney (sp?) Phil ceremony for determining if he sees his shadow? The town elders drag the poor groundhog in a cage up to the podium, pull him from the ceremonial den, wiggle him as if he’s whispering in their ear, then proclaim “his” prediction. If that prediction is right or wrong, it has nothing to do with groundhogs or Phil. It has to do with the town council that decides what they will announce that year.
That’s not to say that using a varmit for weather prediction is an accurate method if used the traditional way (i.e. observing a groundhog in the wild). But this method doesn’t even have that method’s honesty. It is a show put on by the townspeople who parade around the poor beastie and then make ceremonial proclamations purely for tourist attraction purposes.
I’m not saying the groundhog is mistreated - he’s probably well cared for. I’m just commenting on how ridiculous the whole thing is and how pathetic it is to take it seriously.
Damn, I thought this thread was going to be a followup to Alsmiths (or whatever he is calling himself these days) thread about how to get rid of groundhogs. Too bad, I’ve had a couple of more ideas.
“You can be smart or pleasant. For years I was smart.
I recommend pleasant.”
Elwood P. Dowd
The groundhog is 100% correct, technically. All people claim is that “there are six more weeks of winter”. The groundhog never claimed wintery weather!
In general, when the OP claims he’s right 80% of the time over the generations of groundhog’s…for WHOM is he 80% right? Locally? Regionally? Globally? C’mon!
I could do the same forecasting with some drafting triangles and paprika strewn across the floor! Sheesh!
And, if you wish to lump in the Farmer’s Almanac, how come you never ever hear about the many times it has been grossly wrong? (Every winter they predict for the East is the worst one yet.)
It’s amazing how you can read into anything to get the results you wish!
The reports I read (on AP, Reuters) indicated that Phil has seen his shadow every groundhog Day in the past 100 years. I’m intrigued now that someone else has reported that on 14 occaisions he didn’t see his shadow. JimB can you elaborate?
Why, certainly, I’ll elaborate. I got that quote from this AP news story on Yahoo! News. There are links to lots of GroundHog’s Day info. But this page has a yearly list of Shadow/No Shadow at the bottom of it.
It says that there have been 90 Shadow days, 14 No Shadow days, and 9 No Record. It also said that he’s only right 39% of the time. Which pretty much agrees with Cecil’s article.
