"Guaranteed lock of the week" Bookie ads question

I hear this on early morning sports radio, where mafia-accented guys are bragging about their trends and inside information. They have their stone-cold locks that can’t miss.

  1. If they have this inside knowledge (presumably on injuries), this would give them an enormous advantage. Why are they hard-selling on the radio? Shouldn’t they bet on their own info and make millions? Seems easier than going on radio shows.

  2. They say it’s on a recorded message. I know oddsmakers like to have both sides bet equally. Does the recorded message say “Pick Cleveland” and then after the 100th call auto-switch to “Pick Dallas”?

  1. They don’t have inside information. They’re just giving their predictions. I’ve seen it a the racetrack – people sell “tip sheets” that are no different from the local newspaper’s predictions. They usually pick several horses: first choice, second choice, third choice, and “saver.” Then the next day, they claim “Five winners!” if any of their choices win.

  2. They’re not bookies or oddsmakers. They’re touts. You call their number and pay by the minute. It doesn’t matter who wins or loses, just that they find more suckers.

It’s just “puffery”, like a restaurant advertising “Best apple pie in town!”.

You know what’s sad? I is a college-edumacated SDMB-99er and it never occurred to me they were lying…

I’ve heard ads for NFL betting prognosticators that tout their record or percentage against the spread in the past. I doubt they’d lie about that and expect to get away with it.

In our football pool last year, I picked 12 out of 14 winners.

Mind you, that was only one week. But last year I picked 12 out of 14 winners. Surely you’re gonna wanna pay $49.99 for my lock-solid, guar-UN-teed, lock of the week!

You pay me nothing for my lock of the week – my guaranteed lock of the week – and when I am wrong, I owe you: ______________
AND… even if you pay me something, then I can replace the pick with another free pick as compensation. I guarantee this pick; it’s my lock of the week. Oh, I was wrong? Here’s another pick as compensation.


I had a friend who made a lot of $$$ after moving to Florida by making up picks and selling them with conviction. He was an unemployed accountant and moved down because his wife’s job moved there. While looking for work, he joined a “staff” of cappers who would get their “lock of the day/week/month” by throwing darts at a newspaper. Addicted gamblers are always searching for the omniscient capper. My friend told me that he would occasionally get 3 or 4 consecutive selections correct. When that happened, it was vacation time because the gamblers would just start sending him money for months afterwards. While on vacation, he would have a secretary make the picks and then send them out.

After a bad stretch, everyone would change their names and the firm name, and “create” a new pick history. It’s amazing how many people are complete suckers.

There’s one born pretty often… for $50 I’ll tell you exactly how often, and send you my prospectus on how to fleece them.

Bah. That’s a classic scam, what kind of a “fast one” are you trying to pull?

If you’re reading this and found his line patter alluring, you’re a weak minded fool who needs serious help. My kind of help. Send me $100 and I’ll enroll you in my 12-step online course in how to detect swindles, cheats and scams. Stop throwing money away on these shady folks taking you for a ride. Never be a sucker again!

How about I just send both of you money, to cover the odds?