Oh, shit. Triggering event? Poll: Bush will lose election to Joe Random Democrat.
I must be psychic or something (even if I can’t spell).
Thank you for the compliment. 
Let me qualify what I consider a sneak attack.
BOOM!!! (repeat several hundred times)
CNN’s Wolf Blitzer with an announcement from President Bush
…uh… BTW Saddam…?? we’re at war now… Deadline was …uuhm 6 hours ago …?
I don’t think we’re going to hear an announcement of war this evening. Rather, he’ll restate his intentions(for the nth time), call Saddam evil, praise God, and give the UN an ultimatum saying that if they fail to resolve the debate on his terms, veto be damned, he’s going in. His ultimatum to the UN will be a precursor to an announcement for the beginning of an attack on Baghdad. My guess on the attack date, 28 March, 23:00 local time
Your poll? How do you think I feel?
(I meant about guessing Feb. 7, naturally 
)
Yay! I was wrong! Go me!
I was going to say.
How did the speech affect the odds? I must say I missed it – but it wasn’t clear from what I read if, in fact, I missed anything.
I’m changing my answer.
March 24, 2003; 0000 EST
I see a number of people have specified ‘midnight’ or ‘0000’ as the anticipated kickoff of the overt war.
The problem with midnight is, it’s not in a day; it’s the point in time that divides one day from the next. But there’s no reason why we can’t use it here, but we have to decide whether ‘midnight, March 4’ is at the beginning or the end of March 4, so that the picks of Skerri, jjimm, and pepperlandgirl can have meaning.
As far as ‘0000’ is concerned, I think that’s unambiguous: ‘0000, March 4’ is one minute before ‘0001, March 4’, so it’s the midnight at the beginning of the day.
I’ll pick March 22, 1900 hours (Baghdad time).
My pick is March 18th, at 2100 hours (Baghdad time).
So what do we get if we win??
Grrr, you saw through my prevarication and hedging. I’ll give you 00.00 March 27, then.
From the OP:
And right now, you’re very much in the running, if they can get the inspectors out by then. Although you’re in a tight window between vanilla (March 18, as soon as it gets dark in Baghdad) and Happy Lendervedder (March 19, 6:50 pm EST).
If it goes past that, Dinsdale picked March 21 at “high noon” (no time zone, though), and I’ve got March 22, 1900 hours Baghdad time. But Bush isn’t gonna wait that long.
Oops, according to CNN an Administration official has said a 72-hour ultimatum “is in the right ballpark”. If that’s from tonight’s speech, then Dinsdale’s looking awfully good.
Happy Lendervedder seems pretty close.
Hmmm…dust storms, full moon at the end of the 48 hour get outta Dodge thing. Not a good time to fight…How 'bout Monday, 3/24, 9:00 pm Baghdad time? Too soon? 'kay…Friday 3/28, 9:00 pm Baghdad time.
Friday 21 March, 9:00 EST
I think they’re raring to go but they will wait until the full moon is over …
Ladies and Gentlemen,
We have a winner!
** Happy Lendervedder**
March 19, 6:50 p.m. EST
YAY! Congratulations, ** Happy Lendervedder
**!!
… i lost track of this thread. Nice to see who won. 