Handicap next Tuesday's "Potomac Primary" (VA, DC, MD)

[Jophiel]

I’m encouraged to read that Obama is going back to his Iowa strategy for Texas. Lots of one-on-one, lots of public appearances, lots of community events. He didn’t get that chance for Super Tuesday but he stands a good chance of turning a lot of votes his way the longer he has to ‘work’ a state.

A lot of Texas Hispanics are younger as well. I think I read that the average age is around 25. Obama does well with the younger crowd and, if he has the time to sway Hispanic votes in Texas it’ll dispel a lot of the questions whether or not he can get their votes in November.

Some of this might have already been covered. Between the multiple election threads here, on other forums, daily reading of RealClearPolitics and other news sites, I can’t keep my sources straight any more.

[Phlosphr]

@Jophiel

I’m encouraged to read that Obama is going back to his Iowa strategy for Texas. Lots of one-on-one, lots of public appearances, lots of community events. He didn’t get that chance for Super Tuesday but he stands a good chance of turning a lot of votes his way the longer he has to ‘work’ a state.

A lot of Texas Hispanics are younger as well. I think I read that the average age is around 25. Obama does well with the younger crowd and, if he has the time to sway Hispanic votes in Texas it’ll dispel a lot of the questions whether or not he can get their votes in November.

Some of this might have already been covered. Between the multiple election threads here, on other forums, daily reading of RealClearPolitics and other news sites, I can’t keep my sources straight any more.

I try and see a common line with all of them before I report anything…usually when they are all reporting something similar you can bet the facts are close to that similarity.

I agree, Obama is going to turn some heads with all of his personal visits. I don’t doubt he’s going to be running full throttle until Mar. 4th. I don’t see Clinton gaining much if any ground between now and then…she will however do some smearing…or try.

[Shayna]

@Jophiel

I’m encouraged to read that Obama is going back to his Iowa strategy for Texas. Lots of one-on-one, lots of public appearances, lots of community events. He didn’t get that chance for Super Tuesday but he stands a good chance of turning a lot of votes his way the longer he has to ‘work’ a state.

A lot of Texas Hispanics are younger as well. I think I read that the average age is around 25. Obama does well with the younger crowd and, if he has the time to sway Hispanic votes in Texas it’ll dispel a lot of the questions whether or not he can get their votes in November.

I think Hillary had best not be counting on the Hispanic vote in Texas to pull her through anymore. . .

‘SUPER’ LATINO SLAMS CLINTON

February 12, 2008 – A prominent member of the national Democratic Party has circulated a sharp e-mail saying the removal of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle was disloyal to Hispanics and should give “pause” to superdelegates and voters.

The e-mail from, Steven Ybarra, a California superdelegate who heads the voting-rights committee of the DNC Hispanic Caucus, was sent to fellow caucus members in the hours after word broke that Solis Doyle - the most prominent Latina in Clinton’s campaign - would be replaced by another close Clinton loyalist, Maggie Williams, who is black.

Latino Lawmakers Upset Over Clinton Camp Shake-Up - The New York Times

February 12, 2008, 4:26 pm
Latino Lawmakers Upset Over Clinton Camp Shake-Up

By Patrick Healy

The anger in the Hispanic community over the ousting of Patti Solis Doyle as Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign manager continues to unfold, with two Hispanic legislators from Mrs. Clinton’s home state sending an open letter to her expressing their concerns. (They’re not the only ones voicing concerns.)

<snip>

Dear Senator Clinton:

It is hard to understand how the Hispanic community that has been there to keep your campaign alive could remain in your corner when the first Hispanic woman to serve as your presidential campaign manager has resigned from her post.

<snip>

Although we are inclined to believe that Patti Solis Doyle did resign, we would like you to realize that it will be very troubling to many if somehow we later find that she left her post under pressure because of the recent primary losses your campaign suffered.

<snip>

For now, we remain distressed that Patti Solis Doyle, a great Hispanic American woman is no longer serving in her leadership post in your 2008 presidential campaign.

Sincerely,

Senator Rev. Ruben Diaz
Assemblyman Jose Peralta
32nd Senate District
39th Assembly District
The Bronx and Queens

It’s not looking too good in Pennsylvania either, now that Governor Rendell has put his foot in it as well. . .

The New Republic

“You’ve got conservative whites here, and I think there are some whites who are probably not ready to vote for an African-American candidate,” he said bluntly. Our eyes only met briefly, perhaps because the governor wanted to spare the only black guy in the room from feeling self-conscious for backing an obvious loser. “I believe, looking at the returns in my election, that had Lynn Swann [2006 Republican gubernatorial candidate] been the identical candidate that he was – well-spoken [note: Mr. Rendell did not call the brother “articulate”], charismatic, good-looking – but white instead of black, instead of winning by 22 points, I would have won by 17 or so.”

Lovely.

[BrainGlutton]

@Shayna

It’s not looking too good in Pennsylvania either, now that Governor Rendell has put his foot in it as well. . . Lovely.

So is he wrong?

[stolichnaya]

He’s certainly right, from what I know of central Pennsylvania- there are some white conservatives in his state that would not vote for a black man. Who knows how many, they are there. But it’s kind of a weird way to drum up support for someone you’re endorsing. It’s not too much of a stretch to interpret that as “we’re going to win because we have the racist vote”.

The man has talked his whole life without thinking first.

[Phlosphr]

@stolichnaya

He’s certainly right, from what I know of central Pennsylvania- there are some white conservatives in his state that would not vote for a black man. Who knows how many, they are there. But it’s kind of a weird way to drum up support for someone you’re endorsing. It’s not too much of a stretch to interpret that as “we’re going to win because we have the racist vote”.

The man has talked his whole life without thinking first.

There’a a lot of College students in Central PA as well. and a lot of younger folk who know this guy is a cur. I’m not too worried.

[BrainGlutton]

@stolichnaya

The man has talked his whole life without thinking first.

It’s really amazing how many pols fitting that description manage to rise to the rank of governor. Or higher.

[Shayna]

What stolichnaya said.

Plus, it’s just not very nice to go around calling the citizens of your state a bunch of racists. It offends people. And he’s getting a metric buttload of angry letters right now.

[Spoke]

Huh. So by casting his lot with Hillary, Rendell is betting on the racism of his constituents. Well, that’s an interesting choice. Wonder what the voters of Pennsylvania will have to say about that?

[BrainGlutton]

@Shayna

And he’s getting a metric buttload . . .

For the metrically impaired, that’s 1/10 of an assload and 1/100 of a shitload.

[asterion]

@Phlosphr

There’a a lot of College students in Central PA as well. and a lot of younger folk who know this guy is a cur. I’m not too worried.

True, but a lot of the counties in central PA still go Republican. Just because the students at Penn State and all the little private colleges might happily vote for Obama it doesn’t mean that there will be enough votes to swing that part of the state (or the state itself, which of course would be the important thing) to the Democratic column in November. True, PA went for Kerry in 2004 and Gore in 2000 so maybe it wouldn’t matter who the Democrats nominate this time, as long as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia still vote heavily Democratic.

[Airblairxxx]

@BrainGlutton

Do the Latinos have any animosity towards Obama?

. . .

That’s nice, but what about those Latinos who are U.S. citizens and can vote in the Texas Dem primary? How do they feel about Obama and Clinton respectively?

I wanted to come back to this after coming across this article. It’s a bit of an eye-opener.

Over the last two decades, there has been evidence of growing hostility from Hispanics toward African Americans. Some of this hostility is the result of conflicts, or perceived conflicts, over politically controlled resources in cities and states . . .

While this conflict passes largely unnoticed in the popular press, African American and Latino sociologists have been conducting extensive surveys in Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, and Philadelphia. These surveys have generally found that Latinos display more prejudice toward African Americans than African Americans do toward Latinos or than whites display toward African Americans. In the words of University of Houston sociologist Tatcho Mindiola, Jr. and two associates, “in general African Americans have more positive views of Hispanics than vice versa.”

. . .

This hostility of Latinos toward blacks has sometimes showed up in political behavior. While both groups–especially if Florida’s Cubans are excluded–generally vote Democratic, there have been instances where Hispanics, faced with a black Democratic candidate, or with a white Democratic candidate closely tied to the black community, have voted Republican.

In his 1993 New York mayoral race against black Democratic incumbent David Dinkins, Republican Rudolph Giuliani received 37 percent of the Hispanic vote and only five percent of the black vote. Conflicts between Latinos and blacks also figured in the 2001 Houston mayoral runoff between black Democrat Lee Brown and Republican and Cuban-American Orlando Sanchez. Brown won the run-off, but the conservative Sanchez took 72 percent of the Latino vote.

[BrainGlutton]

@Airblairxxx

I wanted to come back to this after coming across this article. It’s a bit of an eye-opener.

If Obama gets the nom, he’d better tap Richardson as his running mate.

[MilTan]

Virigina called for Obama as soon as the polls closed.

[asterion]

@MilTan

Virigina called for Obama as soon as the polls closed.

Well, that about wraps it up for Clinton for tonight.

[Marley23]

Wow. That suggests Survey USA may have been right with their prediction of a 20-percentage point win.

[Jophiel]

@Marley23

Wow. That suggests Survey USA may have been right with their prediction of a 20-percentage point win.

Granted, it’s only 4% in but Obama is up 25 points.

[BrainGlutton]

CNN Election Center is projecting Obama to take Virginia 63% to 36% with 5% of precincts reporting.

[Marley23]

There is some serious, serious bad news for Clinton here, even if it’s not that surprising that she lost by a large amount. Stuff like this makes it hard for her to claim she lost because the demographics were stacked against her:

And young voters flocked to the Obama campaign, the polls suggest. Eighty percent of poll respondents under 30 and 67 percent of those under 45 voted for him.

However, Obama also edged Clinton – 52-47 – among voters over 60.

And 49 percent of those who voted for Obama were white, a big change from previous contests in which Clinton held a big lead over Obama among white Democrats.

“We haven’t seen that happen this strikingly before, and this in a Southern state,” said CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider.

Older voters, women, Hispanics and working-class voters are the core the Clinton campaign has said are backing her in the Democratic primaries – along with those who feel her experience makes her the best suited to handle international affairs.

[…]Obama led Clinton 58-42 percent among the women who were polled, took 59 percent of the votes of respondents who said they earn less than $50,000 a year and 62 percent of those who said someone in their household is a member of a union.

Exit polls for Potomac primaries show support for Obama ran wide - CNN.com

[tnetennba]

She’s already basically given up on these states, and pushed all her chips into Texas and Ohio. I just have to wonder if she thinks about the margins in these states since none are winner take all. If she loses 2:1 in every state until March 4 and then wins 51:49, how much of a difference will it make in terms of delegates?

Polls open late in Maryland because they have snow… good lord, some states just can’t handle a little weather.