I’ll have to press you for those cites. I’m willing to bet good money that anything you come up with would have been a response to something Hillary prevoked.
It’s just not his style to play the race card. No way.
The one that comes to mind is:
race-baiting:
The delay he took in stamping down the canard about Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton’s comments’ being racist (most from his surrogates or supporters). He said nothing for 10 days, conveniently stamping it down after the polls have been released.
playing the race card:
He speaks the same phrases that malcolm x would use and use the same rhetoric. "They bamboozled you… I’ll get the cites.
Except that he performed fine in the other demographics, so you constantly saying he didn’t improve on the black vote from Nevada seems to be leaving out a really big chunk of “the narrative.”
The only time that it will change the narrative is if he performs very well on any one demographic that hasn’t been seen in the past. He hasn’t done this. The reason I point to the AA vote is that it’s the largest chunk and it could have been a shutout for Clinton.
You don’t think Hillary - a veritable titan in the political scene is not getting a fair shake? Are you sure about that? Obama is carrying his own against a titan. Hipocracy you say? A punk…? I do hope much of the American public does not agree with you.
My answer to the OP’s question.
The lion’s share (61%) of Feb. 5 delegates are in just 6 states. So the margins there are the margins that will matter. These states are:
State/Delegates/Latest poll (H-O-E)/Trend
CA (370) 39-27-10 Obama upward trend
NY (232) 51-25-11 Obama weak upward trend
IL (153) 22-51-15 Too few to say
NJ (107) 49-32-10 Stable
MA (93) 59-22-11 Too few to say
GA (87) 35-41-13 Too few to say
Total: 1042 Delegates/1,681 total on Feb. 5
If the election were held today, and assuming exact proportionality of votes to delegates, the result would be Hillary 435 to Obama 323. Hardly a knock-out blow among the key states, and the final tally with all the states included won’t have a margin of over 200 delegates at worst.
In all likelihood, it will actually be much closer.
These polls are without any bump Obama will get from SC. As each contest has approached, in NV, IA, NH, and SC, Obama has gone from being down by 15-20 points to very close or winning (and many of these polls are as old as those polls were). Granted, he’s had longer to campaign in those states. But it isn’t all campaigning–it’s voters taking a closer look as it gets closer to there time to cast a ballot.
I would guess that the next round of polls in these states shows Obama gaining in every one of the above states, with the possible exception of NY. So I think the final total for these key states will be closer to 400-350, with the final total for all states with a margin of no more than 150 electoral votes. That would give Hillary, not including superdelegates, a lead of some 137 delegates. A significant lead, but not enough to end it. Not even close. And then the money will start to get tight. And the question will become: which side has maxed out their donors? Care to take a guess?
This is HUGE!
Oops! Bugger, that was me above, not my hubby (though he shares the sentiments).
And adding; with Senator Kennedy’s donor list now at his disposal, Obama won’t have to worry a lick about running out of money. I really think this will have an enormous impact on the race. I’m feeling a lot more confident about calling it for Obama with this endorsement in hand.
How much will dual Kennedy endorsements help Obama in MA?
Given Richard’s figures above that endorsement will be valuable if only for the influence it will have in MA alone.
There a lot of big names who will be making endorsements this week. They’ll want to be on board before Super Tuesday since after that it won’t matter as much. My guess is that several were leaning to Obama but afraid to go against the “inevitability” of the Clintons machine. Now that that machine has shown itself to be vulnerable they are going to get themselves behind Obama while their endorsements still get attention. Some will go to HRC too though. Enough to stop the perception of Obama as being the uniting force gathering steam? I doubt it.
Look for this Tuesday to be a banner day for the big names (like Richardson) - after the State of the Union could possibly interrupt its focus in the news and in time to give the pundits that to talk about on the Dem side during the Florida returns that evening rather than HRC’s likely meaningless victory there.
(I know I had earlier thought they’d want the Sunday talk shows but I hadn’t considered those other factors then.)
More huge than Kennedy in my book. The other big prize of Latino endorsement in California is Molina and she can’t be far behind. Together they will make a major impact on the Latino vote in California. What was solidly for HRC comes into play. Both CA and MA.
Let’s face it. The fence-sitters almost all need to decide before Feb Five or risk being inconsequential. If they were on the fence before SC then which way will the SC results and his very wise reaching across all America speech get them to fall?
Looks like another important Superdelegate is coming on board. . .
Pollster.com has CA, NY, and NJ, but where did you get the others? And how old is the MA poll? It’s hard to believe MA would have numbers like that post-Iowa, and anything pre-Iowa is a historical artifact now.
Total: 1042 Delegates/1,681 total on Feb. 5
If the election were held today, and assuming exact proportionality of votes to delegates, the result would be Hillary 435 to Obama 323.
Hardly a knock-out blow among the key states, and the final tally with all the states included won’t have a margin of over 200 delegates at worst.
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The problem is, 200 delegates is actually a pretty big damned lead, given that delegate allocation is proportional. To make up a deficit of that size, you’ve got to win states worth 1000 delegates by an average of 20%.
I agree with you that it’s likely to be closer than that, though.
Towards Obama. The number of big-name endorsements for Obama since NH has been quite surprising as it is. This is hardly going to slow down that trend.
MA poll is Jan. 25th from SurveyUSA. GA poll is Jan. 25th from Rasmussen. IL poll is Jan. 26th from Research 2000.
Good point.
Hard to believe Obama only got 22% in MA that recently. I’d think just the college students in Massachusetts would push him higher than that.
Yeah, not to mention that he lived there for 3 years. It would be interesting to see the breakdown in the poll. Maybe none of the college students in Boston have phones.
You gents may be interested in this article from The Boston Phoenix about whether Obama can close the gap in MA:
Interesting indeed. Thanks.
Former California State Senator Tom Hayden just endorsed Barack Obama. Lots of momentum going Barack’s way today. The Arizona Tribune endorsed him (along with John McCain) today, too.
Nothing new on Hillary’s website at all – she’s still celebrating Nevada and talking to Tyra.