And in the least surprising development of 2011, Trump is apparently officially out.
Booooo… I was really looking forward to him in a GOP primary debate. Oh well, at least he got some attention, so it was worth looking the fool, right?
So who’s still on the bubble? Among the potentially major players, I guess we’re down to Palin and Mitch. My guess is that Mitch will run, and Palin won’t.
Revisiting the OP’s wiki link, the list is now:
[
[quote]
Names of formally declared candidates appear in bold.[ul][li]Herman Cain, former Federal Reserve banker and businessman from Georgia[/li][li]** John Davis**, businessman and construction worker from Colorado [/li][li]** Newt Gingrich**, former U.S. Speaker of the House of Representatives from Georgia[/li][li]** Gary E. Johnson former governor of New Mexico[/li][li] Fred Karger**, political consultant and gay rights activist from California[/li][li]** Andy Martin**, perennial candidate from Illinois [/li][li]** Jimmy McMillan**, perennial candidate from New York[/li][li]Roy Moore, former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court of Alabama[/li][li]** Ron Paul**, U.S. Representative from Texas[/li][li]Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota[/li][li]Buddy Roemer, former governor of Louisiana[/li][li]Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts[/li][li]Rick Santorum, former Senator from Pennsylvania [/li][li]** Jonathon Sharkey**, perennial candidate, wrestler and vampire from Florida[/ul][/li][/quote]
](2012 United States presidential election - Wikipedia)
ETA: The page also lists speculative candidates a bit lower:
Indiana as a blue state? Really? It went for Obama in 2008 (only just, by a mere 30,000 votes), and before that to the Republican candidate in every presidential election after 1964. It is frequently cited as the single state that Obama won in 2008 that he is least likely to win in 2012. (It’s either that or NC in most estimations.) Right now both Senators and 6 of 9 Representatives are Republicans. Both houses of the state legislature are solidly Republican-controlled. I grant that it’s changing, and I wouldn’t balk at “battleground state”, but it’s definitely not a blue state.
Remember the Crayola crayons would include colors like red-violet and blue-violet in addition to straight purple? From a Dem perspective, Indiana’s red-violet at best.
Tweet from Nate Silver:
[QUOTE=@FiveThirtyEight]
Keep an eye on this / RT @pwire: Sensing a vacuum in the GOP field, Texas Gov. Rick Perry quietly feels out a presidential campaign
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=@FiveThirtyEight]
Is it hyperbolic to suggest that if Rick Perry ran for the GOP nomination he might be the favorite? He’d crush in the South.
[/QUOTE]
Dear God, I hope not, Cyberhwk. And I live in Texas. (and would probably be considered more to the right than many of the Dope.) Haven’t we had enough blowhard Texans in the White House for a generation?
Primary season’s sure going to be interesting, that’s for sure.
Same record as Pawlenty from MN. He papered over a huge budget deficit last year (Texas is on a two year cycle and LAST year was election year). This year, it came home to roost. Perry made a big deal about California’s problems and touted Texas as a state to move you business to. Talked about job growth. This year, the deficit dwarfed California on a per capita basis. The big jobs he talked about were low paying in the service sector. Just smoke/mirrors in the finest Texas political tradition.
Watching the Gingrich campaign crater as soon as it cut the umbilical cord. He’s being trashed by right wingers from coast to coast. Here’s coverage from an appearance in [Minneapolis today](Watching the Gingrich campaign crater as soon as it cut the umbilical cord. He’s being trashed by right wingers from coast to coast. Here’s coverage from an appearance in Minneapolis today. http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/122066064.html).
The Republican party has moved so far to the right that even Newt “Contract for America” Gingrich seems to be befuddled by it.
That’s what he gets for disagreeing with some podunk Congressman from Wisconsin who doesn’t even have enough oomph to run for the open Senate seat there. The only availability for valid political differences amongst Republicans these days appears to be as to whether Democrats are Socialists or Communists.
I don’t know. I wouldn’t count Newt “family values” Gingrich out until he cries uncle.
His dropping a quarter-to-half million at Tiffany’s makes me wonder if he’s in the doghouse for auditioning Wife #4…
The only person who thinks Newt Gingrich has a shot at the nomination is Newt Gingrich. He is not appealing to anyone in the Republican party. His serial divorces worry the social conservatives, his social conservatism worries the libertarians, and he’s currently incoherent on fiscal policy.
And a half-dozen or so Dopers in the ‘Does Newt have a snowball’s chance?’ thread.
I just skimmed that thread. I saw one person who’s obviously not a Republican saying that he can win basically because Republicans are stupid. Doesn’t count. I saw a couple of other people half-heartedly put up a defense of his having a slightly better chance than Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann, which isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement. I didn’t see anyone in that thread who was of the serious opinion that Newt was going to be the nominee.
In fact, I think that thread contained the most agreement across the political spectrum as any thread I can remember in a long time. Newt’s a dickhead (literally - his dick does his thinking for him), and he has a knack for saying exactly the wrong things to his own potential constituents.
Romney’s speech last week went over like a lead balloon with Republicans. The boys over on National Review considered it a ‘disaster’ - too clever by half, and it made him look even more like a glib blow-dried suit, which was already his weak spot. So I think he’s moved from ‘possible’ to ‘longshot’. Newt has moved from ‘longshot’ to “Are you KIDDING me?”
It’s fun to watch the whole thing play out. In the end, I suspect one of the safe governors will be the guy. Daniels, Pawlenty, Christie if he runs, or maybe Rick Perry. The longshot would be Gary Johnson.
Right now, the polls of Republican voters are dominated by the candidates with the most name recognition. Once the average Republican starts to really pay attention, I suspect we’ll see the list change, and maybe some late entrants join the field.
Republicans have a history of flirting with the exciting candidates that rile up the base, but they ultimately wind up picking bland, safe choices. In 1988 and 1992 they stuck with George HW Bush. Then Bob Dole, George W. Bush, and John McCain. George W. Bush was the closest they ever got to nominating a ‘movement’ conservative, but even he campaigned basically as a slightly more right-wing version of his dad. Compassionate conservatism, a quiet foreign policy, etc. Bland and inoffensive.
Based on that tendency, I’d say Romney had the best chance until last week, but still has to be considered a contender. Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels are probably closest to the role of traditional Republican nominee.
So freakin’ what? You said “The only person who thinks Newt Gingrich has a shot at the nomination is Newt Gingrich.” I can find you a half-dozen people in that thread who said they thought he did.
Maybe you can do a Newt, and say that anyone who quotes what you said in your earlier post is committing a falsehood.
Lance, you seem to have forgotten to include the link.
Well, I don’t know what happened to that. In a nutshell, Newt was bombarded by right-wing skeptics. He was grilled over his assertion that evolution and faith are not mutually exclusive.
For the reasons you all have stated, I think Gingrich has slightly more chance of winning the nomination than I do. My question here is, in a field this weak, why the hell isn’t Bobby Jindal running? Yes, yes, he wants to concentrate on his 2011 Gov campaign. He keeps saying he’s not interested, I get it. And he doesn’t want to lose and thereby screw up his chances in 2016. That said, he’s going to have a much tougher time in 2016, with Christie, Rubio, maybe Rand Paul, all going to run. Why not take a shot at it now?