Damnit. I’m not getting the hang of this forum at all.
I don’t think the Repubs are showing their hand yet–Certainly Obama will run again…it’ll be interesting to see if Hillary challenges him (I kinda think she might).
If Hillary does challenge him, what will be the basis of her challenge? It can’t be foreign policy, because that’s as much her purview as it is his.
Definitely not going to happen. There’s just no way: this isn’t done, and it would cause a large conflict of interest with her current job, potentially leaving her with nothing.
I think the major Republican candidates are obvious by this point. I do wonder if Jim DeMint is going to be tempted to run.
The Republicans have a kiosk at a local mall to promote their 2010 candidates. I noticed a stack of “Palin 2012” bumper stickers among the other propaganda.
Obama will run again, unless he’s incapacitated somehow. If he is out of the race for some reason, Hillary will graciously allow herself to be nominated.
Palin will probably run, if she isn’t distracted by something shiny. I don’t know who else the Republicans will want. Possibly one or both of the Pauls.
I think that the Republican field won’t settle until after the 2010 election, if only because it will provide a better gauge of what sort of candidate the American people are minded to put into office at the moment. If those extreme right candidates that have knocked out their more moderate brethren in the primaries subsequently get trounced in the general election, the GOP will take a much more circumspect approach to choosing their 2012 Presidential candidate and will look for someone who can take a softer line where needed (maybe Romney, although personally I think he’s lost his mojo).
If the extreme right-wingers do well, however, it’ll be Palin 2012, possibly with Pawlenty as Veep.
I am hoping for RuPaul.
Romney, maybe. Anyone further to the right than that has no hope of winning.
I think you’re right. Romney looks like a centrist in the current Republican Party. He’ll be the most acceptable across the board, seen as a Party man, and not offensive to most, and as a candidate that non-Republicans can vote for.
I doubt Sarah Palin will make a serious run for office. If she were to get nominated somehow, that would make Obama a sure bet to get re-elected.
Romney will get nominated because it’s his turn and that’s how the GOP does things. Obama will run and win.
Palin will not run because she has no interest whatsoever in learning enough about the issues to talk about them intelligently. Besides, her only interest in life is making Sarah wealthy.
Democrats, at this point, are probably hoping Palin will run. I’d be salivating over running actual footage of her chanting “Drill, Baby, Drill!” It’s one thing to oppose a policy, another when you have a pre-made propaganda ad handed to you on a platter.
Romney, Palin, and Huckabee will all run for the GOP nomination. Plus probably a half-dozen others.
While BobLibDem is right in that the GOP tends to nominate the candidate whose ‘turn’ it is, I think there’s less clarity as to whose turn it is than just about any time I can recall. Palin’s got a good claim as the veep nominee last time around; Huck and Romney do as well, based on their primary showings in 2008.
Obama will not have a serious challenger for the Dem nomination, and will win re-election.
Seconded. She must have seen the BP disaster unfolding on television, thought back to that quote, and said, “Shit.”
If Romney is nominated it will almost feel like a concession. Romney feels like the Bob Dole of 2012 to me: someone who’s been around a while and run unsuccessfully for the nomination in the past, but the bottom line is that while he’s someone who can be liked he’s not someone to get excited about. Even when he ran in 2008 it seemed as if his chief claim to fame was that he was a relatively safe candidate with enough money to mount a decent campaign. He’s just not got enough mojo to beat the incumbent unless Obama really screws up post-nomination. But I don’t necessarily see Romney being nominated. The far right doesn’t like him, and the more centrist GOP voters don’t like him enough to counter that.
I think the best bet for the GOP in 2012 is to look for an under-the-radar candidate with a good record in state government, preferably one who can appeal to moderates. It’s their best shot at appealing to anti-incumbent sentiment while still being able to point to experience. That’s not to say a candidate like that is going to win, but at least defeat isn’t going to deprive the GOP of a big shot, and despite what I said about “appealing to anti-incumbent sentiment”, it’s still darn difficult to beat an incumbent president…it’s only happened once since 1980.
Frankly I don’t think any of the names mentioned in this thread are going to be there in 2012. Romney I mentioned above. Palin is losing support by the day and could torpedo herself at any moment. Ron Paul is too old to run again, Rand Paul might not even win the KY Senate race, which would be a massive blow to the GOP and will run him out of politics on a rail. Jim DeMint…shrug…maybe if the right-wing rallies around him. I can’t help but recall he actually lost his SC GOP primary by 18 points, was saved in a runoff election, then couldn’t even win a very solid GOP state by double-digits in the general election.
Huckabee may try but I don’t think he’s going to be in it for very long. And unfortunately last I saw it looked like he’d regained a bunch of weight. That’s a serious problem for him. Whether he runs or not I hope he can deal with it.
Maybe. But Obama’s earlier support for offshore drilling may limit his ability to attack her (or anyone) on that issue. We’ll see what he does in the wake of the leak.
That part, I’ll agree with. He played his hand badly in 2008, wasting time and money on NH, where he should have known he never had a prayer, after winning Iowa. (IMHO, he should have essentially skipped NH and gone straight to MI or SC, stealing a march on his rivals in one of those states.) I don’t think he’s gotten any smarter since then. But he’ll still run.
The more people got to know Romney the last time, the lower his support got. And he’s done nothing since to change that, or to add to his thin resume. He may get it because somebody has to, but not with any real enthusiasm behind it.
I don’t see any potential winners on that side, only survivors. But it’s early yet.
In addition to Huckabee, Romney, Paul and Palin, I see Gingrich in the primaries as well. Then possibly Jindal or Pawlenty. I think you might see 7-8 candidates running in Iowa/NH, before they start dropping out.
As to who will get the nomination – it’s a crapshoot. I would rule out Palin and Gingrich and probably Huckabee. Romney and Paul, possibly, if Paul doesn’t say or do anything stupid. The others are not yet well known enough to get a good gauge on.
Edited to add: for the Democrats, Obama will re-run and probably win. If (heaven forbid) he is incapacitated before the election, you might see Biden run for re-election against Hillary. If Obama serves out his term but elects not to run, you might get a couple of other Dem hopefuls in addition to Hillary but she’ll have the clear advantage.
As a salivating Democrat hoping Palin runs again, Romney will certainly run but I can’t discount a favorable pull by Jindahl or one of the Pauls. I will jump for joy if Palin runs again, she makes a mockery of the GOP by simply having no poolitical acumen aside from Drill Baby Drill! And the Conservative Right Loves her for it - if this current spill gets any worse - which it looks like it will, she’ll be eating her words even more than Obama’s early support for OSD.