Just for the record, in the last few non-incumbent GOP primaries, there were seven (2008), six (2000, and eight (1996) candidates in the Iowa caucuses. And there are always a couple of candidates who can’t raise enough money to even make it that far.
I don’t think Palin will run. She doesn’t have the intellect, the belly or the skin for it. She’ll never come out of her protective little conservative media cocoon and fight a fair fight. Even in the Republican Primaries, she would have to face opposition and criticism. Those guys like Romney and Gingrich and Huckabee are not just going to give her a free ride (though Pawlenty might, he’s an obsequious little bastard), and even if she won the nomination, she’d be trounced in the general. Obama is still the most popular politician in the country, and Palin is one of the most (if not THE most) unpopular.
Gingrich looks to me like he wants to run. He’s got a huge ego, and he probably thinks he can get the teabaggers while maintaining some credibility as a national candidate because of his legit background as a former Speaker.
On a charismatic level, he’s a plane crash, though. Charmless, reptillian, amoral in his personal life. Three marriages, lots of adultery, cheating on, then serving divorce papers to one of his wives while she was in the hospital with cancer. Cheating on his next wife at exactly the same time he was calling on Clinton to resign for getting a blowjob.
His public life has not been much better. After the so-called “Republican Revolution” of 2004, Clinton totally pwned him during the government shutdown – just pulled down his pants and spanked him – then Gingrich told a bunch of reporters that he’d shut down the government because Clinton had made him sit at the back of Air Force 1, and the Republican Revolution was dead in the water after that. Gingrich’s unpopularity became an increasing political liability to his party. He became the first Speaker ever sanctioned for ethics violations, his approval ratings tanked, and his own party started gunning for his seat. He survived one House coup attempt, but after the loss of seats in '98, Gingrich resigned both the Speakership and his own seat in the House (basically, he was too much of a baby to be able to tolerate going back to just being a member under somebody else’s leadership).
The guy would be a dream for the Dems to run against. He’s all flaws and no strengths.
I think it will probably be Romney, as the safest, non-crazy choice. The Pubs can’t beat Obama with just teabaggers. With the unlimited corporate financing they will now have, they don’t even need to pander to the wingnuts for cash. Teabaggers only matter in Republican Primaries. In general elections they are meaningless.
I predict Romney will choose Jeb Bush as his running mate, or possibly (if he can find one) a credible Republican Latino.
Palin’s already run, though. There were parts of it she didn’t enjoy but she seems like the type who would do it again, either to prove to her enemies that she can do it, or because she’s become convinced that ‘real Americans’ love her.
I think he’d do better to find a good female running mate. One who shows up all the flaws in Palin.
I don’t think Romney would make the mistake of picking Jeb Bush as a VP candidate. The GOP can only win the election by converting Obama voters, and putting W’s brother on the ticket is just not going to do that.
Rubio, maybe, assuming he wins the Senate seat?
I don’t think you can really predict, this early, who’s going to be running (aside from Obama, of course). I highly doubt Obama will get a serious primary opponent…you’ll maybe get a couple of publicity runs, far left icons who will try to point up Obama’s centrism and corporate ties, but they won’t even get to Iowa.
As far as Republicans, I’m not making any predictions until I see who flies to Iowa or New Hampshire in October 2011 to lay their groundwork (“retail politics”, as it’s called…visiting farmers, eating lunch at diners, kissing hands, shaking babies, etc.).
If Palin runs, it’ll just be to publicize her latest ghost-written book.
I figured the Repubs would be tempted to trot out Bobby Jindal, as a viable minority candidate.
He’s also an exorcist and faith-healer. Even many religious conservatives would look askance at such claims.
I mostly agree with Diogenes – I think Palin will be a tease, string out her fans, but ultimately not decide to run for whatever self-serving purpose (and blame it on the media). Then she’ll go back to her book royalties and Fox News paycheck.
I think it’ll be Romney if Obama is looking vulnerable. He’s the establishment candidate.
But as such, Romney won’t want to waste his chance in a losing campaign. If he thinks Obama is going to be re-elected, he might risk defering his “turn” until 2016.
This could backfire. Bush was seen as unbeatable for 1992 and the big names for the Democrats decided to wait until 1996. This left an opening for Clinton to step into.
Which is why Mario Cuomo has been known to get into bed at night, hum the first few bars of “Hail to the Chief,” and cry himself to sleep.
Fuck him. Cuomo wanted the job, but only if it were going to be handed to him by a grateful public begging him to save them. Not if he had to actually *work *for it.
He’s far from the only pol who’s had that problem, but c’mon, he couldn’t even decide to accept the Supreme Court nomination Clinton was going to hand him.
There was a Tom Toles cartoon that showed Bill Clinton at his inauguration and in the crowd there was Mario Coumo saying “I’m still thinking it over…”
I’ve got it! The ticket of Romney-Bachmann!
I doubt it. She does not strike me as being sufficiently self-reflective.
A winnah! She’s not about to risk any of her new capital on a campaign. She might be drafted by the Tea Party, and will make a big show of contemplating a run, but in the end will give some version of the same lame “I’m quitting for the good of America” bullshit speech she made when she quit as governor. Running for prez is hard goddamned work and she’s not up for it unless there’s a paycheck at the end.
That’s not true at all! She’s also interested in making Sarah famous.
In the Republican primaries, we’ll probably see Palin, one of the Pauls, Huckabee, Gingrich, Romney, Jindall, and Pawlenty, plus maybe a few others. Out of those, I think that Romney is the best chance for the Republicans, and I also think that they’ll realize that and he’ll get the nomination, but I think there’s still the opportunity for Paul (whichever one runs), Huckabee, or some dark-horse governor. Palin will have a very public meltdown and [del]be forced out by the evil media[/del] quit before the convention, Gingrich is old news, and if Jindall shows up on the ticket, it’ll be as VP, not President.