I agree.
I think Sarah Palin will remain in her newly found role as outside agitator. There is more money in it and less risk. She can say whatever she wants with few consequences.
Can the GOP do better?
I think someone might try to primary Obama from the left, but I’m not sure who. But something like that could happen to recapture all the energy Obama originally created, but lost from his base.
As far as the GOP, the tea party activists keep electing more right wing candidates than the official GOP party puts out. This is good and bad from a liberal POV because on one hand they are less electable, but if they do win elections they will be even less cooperative and more aggressive (as if the current GOP isn’t already).
So the same should happen in the 2012 GOP primary. I assume the field will consist of governors and senators, some of whom are reasonably moderate, but at the end some tea party approved candidate will win.
But for both parties the 2010 primary season seems to be one where the base pushes for more ideological and non-incumbent candidates. I don’t know if that’ll carry over to 2012 but I assume so.
Yeah, if that. Is putting a South Asian Roman Catholic on the ticket worth it to the party?
It hasn’t since Eisenhower.
Oh my. She is mind-numbingly stupid.
The latest issue of Time disagrees.
No experience with Twitter here, but I assume that people can choose their own usernames. Is that actually her account, a rabid Palin supporter, or a parody?
Kucinich. If Obama runs in 2012, he’ll be nominated. Otherwise, it’ll be a tough fight between Biden and Clinton.
I agree that Gingrich will likely run; agree that he won’t get anywhere. I agree that Palin will flirt around with it, and won’t. If I had to put money on the nomination right this second, I’d put it on Romney. Pawlenty, Jindal, et al, I don’t expect to see seriously until 2016.
If you click on her name link on that page, it takes you to the actual Twitter account page and it’s a “verified” account, which means that Twitter has determined that it actually is her.
The only way I see Romney having a chance is if the Tea Party implodes completely. He has too many problems with the far right of the GOP, who seem to be running things these days. Romneycare, support for homosexual rights until he doesn’t, Mormonism, etc. He is just too centrist in the present atmosphere. If he holds off until 2016, and the wingnuts lose power because of election failures, he has a decent chance.
I agree with Frank below. The only one that could realistically come at Obama from the left in the Democratic party is Kucinich. But while he could get the far left going for him, Obama will have the moderates and more pragmatic liberals. I doubt Kucinich will even try actually. He definitely believes in the liberal values he runs on, but he is willing to compromise on them if needed to make some progress. (His HCR vote would hurt him with the left wingnuts.) While he could try to come at Obama from the left, I think he is too old school about not gunning for a sitting President from his party to do it.
The only one that I would like to see get the GOP nomination more than Gingrish is Palin. I think that who gets the nomination will depend entirely upon the outcomes this November. If the Tea Party nominees get trashed, the GOP may start trying to open up their tent more and get back the moderates they have been driving out. That would at least open the possibility for Romney. I don’t think he could win the General Election, barring major screwups by Obama, but he would have the best shot.
I keep telling everyone, stupidity is contagious, and even brushing up against it is dangerous. But do they listen to me? Nooooo.
You’re not alone in that observation.
Right now, I’d say the Republican nominee will be Texas governor Rick Perry. He plays well to the Religious right, does well with the Tea Party group, and he could flip some of the Southern swing states that Obama won. Texas’ economy is doing better than most states.
The GOP Vice Presidential candidates will boil down to Jindal, Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels.
Palin’s unfavorables are higher than ever and over 50%. I’d be surprised if she even took the risk of running and failing in the primaries versus her current cushy gigs.
Jindal: They already tried the pandering token (Palin) and it still didn’t save their campaign. Not gonna happen. It not only didn’t save their campaign, they now have a raving lunatic with far more influence on their party than they could have ever anticipated.
Still, her looks should be gone in 10 years, tops, and then nobody will listen to her.
-Joe
“How’s that drilly-spilly thing working out for ya?”
There is a gambling site were you can bet on 2012 election. This market currently thinks Sarah Palin is 19% to be the nominee. (That seems ridiculously high, unless GOP decides election is lost anyway and goes for Palin as some kind of Machiavellian ploy.)
From Intrade’s home page, I clicked “Most Traded Political” to get to the Palin quote. Others can be found via search, but I only did two:
Romney is 25%; Clinton for Demo is (bid 5%; ask 9%).
Another site has 2010 election contracts up, but it appears no 2012 yet.
And I agree, we have to see the tea party ridiculousness fail over the next 2 years, because he’s not ‘conservative’ enough, then I’d like to float another Mormon out there…
Jon Huntsman, Jr. Insanely popular as Utah governor, very centrist, and now serving as ambassador to China in Obama’s administration. I’m close to a card carrying pinko, and I voted for him in the Utah governor election.
He’s like-able and centrist, like Clinton without the sleaziness, and has a good business acumen (unlike Bush II). His time in China cannot hurt from a foreign policy standpoint.
He got the nomination in Utah, which is really conservative, and won the governors election by a landslide. Not a huge feat, because Republicans pretty much punch their own ticket into office around here, but he had a lot of crossover appeal, too.
Very winnable in the general election, the trick would be winning his own parties primaries.