It’s (still) Romney’s nomination to lose as far as I’m concerned. There is simply no way the GOP establishment will stand by and let Bachmann take it. They’re not stupid. A Bachmann nomination will pretty much guarantee a 10% margin of victory for Obama.
I would agree with you, except that we really don’t know to what extent the crazies have taken over the Republican Party. I think Romney is the Hillary of '12, once his inevitability is shattered, he goes down in flames. If I had to put money on one or the other, I’d put it on Michelle.
I disagree - I think he’s being squeezed out almost altogether. A guy who can’t get into double digits outside of Mormon country isn’t going to set himself up for much of anything.
And a prediction: the GOP won’t be noticeably saner in 2016 than it is now. Huntsman won’t be a better fit for the party anytime in the future than he is today.
He’ll endorse Romney, unless Romney crashes and burns before he drops out.
He certainly might be, and I might go so far as to say that he probably will be squeezed out. I just wouldn’t say yet that he has no chance of doing well enough for his goals.
Oh, probably, but here you’re actually reinforcing what I was saying: If he manages to last longer than Romney, that’s a very good performance indeed for him.
The GOP has tended to nominate the candidate “next in line” whatever that means. 2000 was a mild aberration, in that the process turned into picking one of GHW Bush’s sons as a sort of crown prince.
But right now, the one who can claim it’s his turn is Romney. And he probably still can raise the money to buy endorsements (as he did in 2008). It doesn’t matter how many people are mildly displeased with him when the endorsements come out & the money is on his side.
So what would have to happen for the GOP to turn away the guy that’s been favored for all this time, that a lot wanted to be the candidate in '08, that can win the center?
Some desire to maintain the present status quo? Doubtful. Still a lot of patronage in the federal executive, and more importantly prestige.
A belief that Obama is too unbeatable, so they should put up a loony to make it look like they threw it? Too half-subtle, and would require a lack of self-belief I don’t expect in the party’s decision making.
A whole lot of anti-Mormon feeling? I doubt it, evangelicals seem OK with Orrin Hatch.
Hatred of “Romneycare”? Nah, It’s OK If A Republican Does It.
I expect Romney will take the nom, possibly very quickly, and give Obama a real race next year.
I’m not so sure.
Romney’s flip-flopped on abortion several times and he’s a bit iffy on some other issue too.
To be honest, Bachmann’s been mildly surprising.
And, of course, there’s the joker in the pack.
If I was a Republican party organiser I would be begging Condi Rice to run for the nomination.
IMO she’d stand a real chance.
Could you be more specific? 
[QUOTE=ladylinda]
And, of course, there’s the joker in the pack.
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I think it’s a trial balloon for a Steve Miller candidacy. I’ll vote for him if he agrees to tell us what the fuck a pompatus is.
If this were a typical election cycle, with a typical candidate who could claim the mantle of being "next in line’ I would probably agree, but it isn’t. First, the Republican base has turned into Tea Partiers. These folks hate, Hate, HATE the establishment more than anything right now and Romney reeks of establisment to them.
Second, Romney can claim the mantle of next in line only because he basically came in second to McCain in '08 (and Palin isn’t running). Of those (trying) to run, Gingrich and Giuliani could make a better or at least equal claim to be the one who is next in line based on their party service. Add to that the only position of prominence in the party Romney can claim is being a one term governor of the evil liberal state of Taxachusetts and well…it kinda falls apart.
I think internet fundraising by politicians has seriously changed how money is being raised and will be raised in the future. The big money people want to back the winner more than anything else. If the tide starts to shift in one person’s direction, the donations probably will follow. Remember how the money shifted from Clinton to Obama in '08? Same idea.
Hatch has never run for any office where the evangelical vote mattered, so this is largely irrelavant.
That most evangelicals will vote for whoever the Republican candidate is, I do not doubt. But, I suspect 10-15% of evangelicals are more likely to sit out the election than vote for someone they believe is a member of a cult and not a Christian.
I would acknowledge Romeny may yet take the nom. I don’t think it will be quick. I think Bachman may suprise everyone with how well she does. And I suspect if Perry gets in the race he could take the nomination handily.
Wow, Bob, so much anger.
I think you make the mistake of characterizing the Tea Partiers as racist and stupid, which they are not.
I think they are angry, but their anger is misdirected.
Perry could be the comprimise candidate, if he gets in, but the clock is ticking on him. Remember, Fred Thompson showed that you can’t start late and be serious, and Thompson was in by now in 2007. (He delayed until the last minute so he could keep getting royalties from Law and Order.)
Bachmann has said some whacky things, but don’t think that she couldn’t attract a lot of moderate support.
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, Americans usually end up voting in the guy they’d rather have a beer with.
I’d rather have a beer with Bachmann than Obama.
And if this is not the saddest commentary on how far this country has Jumped the Shark, I don’t know what is. Screw having the Best and the Brightest, I want to elect a guy who drinks beer. Dear God, we are lost.
I think you’re the one making the mistake there. But be that as it may.
No one in their right mind would have rather had a beer with Carter than with Ford. And we elected Nixon twice, and nobody in their right mind would have wanted to have a beer with Nixon, period.
I’d much rather have a beer with Obama, because he’s smart and knows a lot about a wide variety of different things; I’m sure he’d be fun to talk to. The things Bachmann knows that just ain’t so, along with her general illogic, would start driving me up the wall about five minutes into our conversation.
If I were single, I wouldn’t mind having sex with Bachmann, because IME crazy women can be awfully good in the sack.
I’d rather have a beer with Dan Marino, but that doesn’t make him a plausible candidate.
Quoth Kolak of Twilo:
She’s already surprising everyone with how well she’s doing.
Bachmann has had quite the eventful couple of days. She said John Quincy Adams was a founding father, she proposed abolishing the minimum wage, she got John Wayne and John Wayne Gacey mixed up, and she came under scrutiny for receiving lots of government money from her farm and her hubby’s pray away the gay counseling center.
But take it from a Minnesotan, this is just a normal run of days in the life of Guano-Crazy Bachmann.
Another little item - it looks like Tom Petty is not happy at all that Michele Bachmann is using his song, “American Girl” at her events.
It seems like Republicans always have this problem. They can’t use rock songs without pissing off the artists. They can only use shit kicker country artists and Ted Nugent.
Not sure what the lyrics…
and…
are supposed to signal about her campaign.
Gee, Obama is supposed to an flippin’ genius, and ummm, how’s that working out for you?
I making $5,000 a year less than I did in 2008. And I guess I should be happy, I have a job.
Fact is, Obama comes off as elitist and kind of out of touch, really. I think a few people think that “yeah, I hope the GOP nominates Bachmann because she’s gonna be really easy to beat!”
Well, yeah, I guess that’s the problem when you fly around on a private jet and think you should tell me what kind of car I should drive, you get that kind of arrogance.
I think you are mischaracterizing both the Adams and Wayne statements, neither of which are a big deal.
But please, please keep trying to attack the family farm and the Christian counsolling center, because that’ll go over really well with middle America.
What is it in Minnesota where you guys elect nutbags like Bachmann, Al Franken and Jesse Ventura? Is it something in the water?
End of the day, 2012 will be a referndum on Obama, not Bachmann.