Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination

She really, really wants to hear you all beg for her, doesn’t she? She always did seem like that kind of girl.

Right now, there’s a wild card in the primary process. The RNC recently passed rules saying that only the “first four” (Iowa, NH, SC, Nevada) can have primaries in February, yet pretty much every “Super Tuesday” state still has state laws saying that their primaries are (still) in February. Since the RNC rules on dates pretty much match the DNC’s new rules, the February states “should” get their acts together and this “shouldn’t” be a problem…but that’s what they said when California switched to an open primary (in 2000?) despite the RNC rules saying that a primary doesn’t count if non-Republicans can vote in it. (Eventually, they found a loophole that allowed only votes by registered Republicans to count in the Presidential primary.)

– Don

She’s got tiger blood.

Personally, I think that if a political party is going to have the nerve to make the government pay for the costs of running their primary, they should just sit back and accept whatever rules the government comes up with.

Pawlenty is picking up steam.

The Colbert Report dedicated an entire segment to making fun of him and the NY Times did a high profile piece on how he is all things to all people. True, these things could be seen as negatives, but I think it’s seen as a badge of honor to be nicked in the liberul media. Besides, it’s got to boost his name recognition.

He also gained a lot of attention for taking on a fake Southern accent recently. This is just bizarre and has made him something of a laughingstock round these parts. He might want to can that from now on.

The two of the are indistinguishable on the issues. And they both talk funny.

The difference is that Palin has a rabid following of goofs who will wait in line for hours to get her signature on their copy of Going Rogue. Bachmann is by far the second banana in this comedy team. Her widely rumored to be gay husband wouldn’t boost her odds either. Bachmann is a non-starter in this thing.

Captain,

You are missing the point. Neither Palin or Bachmann is a loon, goof or whatever. They have both been elected to public office and both understand that you get elected by speaking to your base, not to your competition. Their inane and often incorrect views are shared by their constituency.

Palin and Bachmann will draw the primary crowds. Pawlenty et al will stand by and watch.

Crane

You get nominated by speaking to your base. You get elected by speaking to everyone else.

Really,

Correct, and that is the way I believe it will play out - strong nomination - disastrous election…

Crane

From your lips to god’s ears…

Um, Pawlenty has been elected too.

The interesting thing about Bachmann is that she’s not restricted to partisan loonery. Didn’t she have something about wanting to give Obama a big hug and a kiss, or some such?

This article suggests this year’s campaigning is off to a slow start.

[

](The First 2012 Debate Approaches. Or Does it? - The New York Times)

2007’s first debate was in early May with 10 candidates.
Is that just a function of having an incumbent or is there something a bit odd about it?

Basically all the serious Dem candidates were in by January of '03 for the '04 race, and many only waited that long to see what Gore would do (he announced he wasn’t running at the end of '02).

Things started even earlier for the GOP for '96, since they didn’t have someone with right of first refusal like Gore to wait on, and because Clinton looked like he was going down after the '94 mid-terms.

So yea, its unusual.

Michele Bachmann says she’s “in for 2012” but hasn’t actually announced.

Democracy is the one truly amusing form of government humanity has ever devised.

This is like a sentence produced by one of those Spambots where it just takes a bunch of words that come up frequently on google and cram them into a possibly syntactically correct sentence.

3 pages and no mention of Herman Cain? This guy has been holding almost monthly rallies/speeches to relatively large crowds in the Iowa for the past year. If he keeps this up, he’s going to have a very solid base come primary time. The networks are just now starting to pick up on him.

And I’m eagerly awaiting the gyrations the KDFs* will go through to justify voting for someone named “Cain.”

*Knuckle-dragging fundamentalists (as opposed to the garden variety).

Yes because he, or any other GOP candidate, is incapable of attracting voters through ideas, policies, and other aspects devout of color, race, creed, gender, and even name.

Troll?

Lol