The Democratic Primary Debacle or DPD for short is tearing at the strings of the party. Democrats are at a point where actual harm could be done. One of the main problems is the dems are divided in terms of who we truly want as the nominee. The air in the news world has been ripe with mud-slinging and controversy - Howard Dean this morning on the news outlets hoping for an early June end to this mess, and saynig superdelegates will decide this whole shebang.
Clinton has an issue as she is behind in delegates, popular vote, and states won - Obama is ahead in delegates, states won, and popular vote. According to a new NBC WSJ poll Clinton’s personal approval rating is at a 7 year low.
This morning Senator Bob Casey endorsed Barack Obama for president. Known as the Blue Collar Senator in Pennsylvania, Casey has come out for his support earlier than he said he would to try and “unify” his party behind the likely nominee.
Do you think we will start to see more superdelegates do what Senator Casey has done BEFORE the PA primary? Do you think the supers should rally around a candidate now instead of later? Let’s weigh in on what we think is likely to happen with the current air being what it is.
Don’t forget Senator Dodd’s interview yesterday with the National Journal, where he said, “. . .if you have enough people rallying behind what appears to be the likely choice, and I believe the choice is Barack Obama, and I believe that will be the choice over the next several weeks, then I think you have to step up to the plate and say, enough is enough.”
Yes.
Yes.
I think we’re going to see a lot less mud slinging and a lot more arguing about the differences on the issues. Hillary’s going to go back to claiming her mandatory “universal” health care plan is better than Barack’s and he’s going to keep pounding on her Iraq War vote. The economy is going to be a big topic, as well, each trying to outdo each other on what their specific plans are.
I also think that the pressure is being put on Hillary right now to stop propping up McCain against Barack, and we’ll hear both of them start making more frequent calls to their supporters to back whomever becomes the nominee, which Hillary has already had to start doing.
I think after Indiana, maybe even after North Carolina, this thing will technically be over. Hillary will be forced to back off of her threats to take this to the convention floor, there’ll be some back room deal to offer her some kind of leadership role in the Senate or maybe even a cabinet post, and in exchange, Barack will agree to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates ‘as is’ in order to appease the voters in those states so they’ll come behind him in November.
I believe there’ll continue to be a trickle of supers to Obama, but not a decisive number, until the Pennsylvania primary. Unless that’s a blowout win for her (and that’s slipping away now), after that primary the trickle of supers will turn into a steady flow, till it becomes impossible for her to win.
If Pennsylvania is a blowout for her, I expect her to keep slogging until she’s crushed in North Carolina, with supers continuing between PA and NC to seep to Obama but at a slower rate.
That’s if Clinton dials back the damage she’s doing, though. If she sucks up to the Scaifeworld again,I believe you’ll see a faster flood of supers to Obama, to stop the bleeding.
One gets the feeling now that the party elders have had their fill of the Hillary show. Once they are fully satisfied that the Wright wound is not mortal, I look for maybe a dozen or two to come out of hiding and announce for Obama. If he can keep PA under 10 points, another dozen will come out.
There seems to be increasing noise that Gore will either broker a deal (sounds plausible to me) or even head up a compromise ticket himself (sounds farfetched to me) (Cite1, Cite2). Any chance he’ll go the third way and announce for one of the candidates? Does he have the drag to put an end to this?
I just wish they’d settle this already. I’ve pretty much resigned myself to the fact that Obama is going to be the candidate. While I’m not thrilled with it, at least he’s not a republican.
Sorry HRC, I really wanted to vote for you in November.
edit-(the not a republican line was from my belief that the Democrat candidate will win in Nov)
I think a lot of people believe the democratic candidate will win in November. There are an aweful lot of democrats and independents that will vote Dem in Nov. I believe that Obama will cinch the nomination, and the democratic machine will put him into the oval office come November.
Shayna - do you think FL and MI will be sat before a Clinton Concession?
My prediction is June 4th, after the final primaries are over. There’ll be nothing left but superdelegates. and they’re drifting Barack-ward. After that’s over, the superdelegates will end it.
It might happen sooner than we think, because of an issue that hasn’t yet been discussed in this thread. HRC’s campaign is having financial problems.
Once her money dries up then this campaign will be over toot suite. And all the stories about the small local vendors who are still waiting to be paid are just as damaging to her campaign as the actual money shortage.
I predict that the Pennsylvania primary will be the last meaningful one for this election cycle.
That’s my take as well. I think the ONLY thing that would stop HRC is the money thing. And she does have some more money she can throw at it if she’d like - but it would be her money.
Where her money is going - and not going - will likely undermine some of her support soon.
I was listening to Rush Limbaugh on the way home today (I know, I know…I just don’t think it’s healthy to only listen to people you agree with, plus he gives great examples of poor logic) and he said the accepted odds for Hillary to win are now at 5%, is this hyperbole? If it is what do the Vegas odds really look like?
I’m not sure I accept your thesis. Surely this is American democracy at work? Each State has their Primary, up to Puerto Rico, and who’s to deny them their say?
Surely it’s better to get the mud slung now and out of the way before the real battle begins in September?
I have no idea whether any Vegas book is taking bets on this, but one place that is running a totally unscientific . . . umm, I’m not sure whether to even call it a poll, or what . . . is Slate’s Hillary Deathwatch. Right now they have her chances at winning the nomination at 9.7%.
My understanding is that Clinton still believes she’s acting in the best interest of the Democratic Party and the country as a whole. She feels that once Obama becomes the nominee he’ll get the full blast of the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy and she doesn’t think he can take it. She figures that she, on the other hand, has already shown that she can handle the pressure. In her view, Obama will either lose the election to McCain or at best squeak in but be unable to accomplish anything in office. So she sees Obama as either another George McGovern or another Jimmy Carter. And she sees herself as Ed Muskie or Scoop Jackson - the less attractive but more pragmatic candidate that should have been nominated.
Obviously, there’s a large amount of self-interest and probably some self-delusion at work there. But if you look at the situation from her point of view, what she’s doing isn’t selfish. She’s heroically fighting against the odds to save the Democratic Party from making a huge mistake.
Obviously again, there’s going to be a lot of people who disagree with this point of view. But at least concede that it exists. Clinton is not being willfully destructive.
