It’s telling that the most success the Conservative party (well, one of its predecessors) had in recent history was under a relatively socially progressive Quebecer.
Regardless of what social policies the Tories drop, or who their leader is, they have absolutely zero chance of forming a majority government so long as the Bloc has a stranglehold on the bulk of Quebec’s seats. While the Conservatives might be a viable party in Ontario, they simply are not in Quebec, at least at the current time. I’ll boldly predict they’ll win 0 seats in Quebec, and poll in a dead heat for last place with the NDP.
I’m not quite as pessimistic as Sam is with regards to a Tory minority government. It would depend a lot on the Tories themselves, but there is some common ground with the Bloc that could be pushed, such as devolution of power to the provinces in certain regards, and weakening the federal government generally. If they did get into power, the opposition wouldn’t be all that eager for a third election in two years and would likely hold off for a while, correctly assuming that the party that introduced a non-confidence motion right off the bat would suffer in the polls for doing so. If the social agenda wasn’t pushed (or at least, if any social legislation was clearly presented as not being a matter of confidence), I could see a Conservative minority surviving for 12-24 months and building their own credibility during that time. It would require a great deal of political adroitness on the part of the party leadership, though, and I’m not entirely sure they’ve got it in them to compromise to the extent that would be necessary.
My prediction: Liberals lose seats, all three opposition gain seats, but the NDP don’t gain as many as the Liberals lose. The Liberals will return with a smaller majority, but without the option of using the NDP to stay afloat. There’ll be another election in 6 months, at which time the newly reformed Rhino party will sweep to power as a huge wave of frustration with all politicians sweep the countries. The new government will repeal the law of gravity, resulting in utter devastation for the trampoline industry.
Gah. I am pissed off that the opposition couldn’t wait 6 frigging weeks, and now I have to sit through @#%$ing campaign ads over Christmas and New Years. I just may vote Liberal out of spite.
How about Mario Dumont? He’s young, reasonably popular, fiscally conservative, and slightly socially conservative (he’s in favour of a stronger stance against crime, for example), enough to appeal to some western conservative voters, but not enough to put off the more liberal voters of Québec and Ontario. He might be what the Conservative party is looking for. On the other hand, I see two weaknesses with him: I’m a little disappointed with what seems like a lack of ideas coming from his party since the last few years, they only seem to be riding the protest vote; and the Liberals would be sure to attack him for having campaigned for the Yes side during the 1995 referendum. And the Conservatives would have to convince him to switch to federal politics; I can’t imagine they haven’t already tried. Still, it’s worth thinking about.
Actually, that’s good to know. I will probably visit Alberta some day – you seem to have nice mountains there – and I was slightly worried about how people would react to me when they realized I’m a francophone Quebecer. I can’t really hide my accent, you know, even if it’s not that strong. Not worried enough to lose any sleep over it, but it is something that crossed my mind.
Actually, from the few things I know about the gun registry – we just don’t hear much about it around here – I don’t see what the need for it is. If it really costs as much as it does, and will continue to do so in the forseeable future, get rid of it. On the other hand, as a non-gun owner, I didn’t have any first-hand experience with it, so I might not have quite the same animosity against it as gun owners would have.
However, there is something I have to mention here. I see that the Conservatives have campaigned against this gun registry for a long time, complaining that it costs way too much for what benefits come from it, and for this I thank them; this is what I expect from a fiscally conservative party, even though I am not really fiscally conservative myself. On the other hand, where were they when the Liberals wanted to spend large amounts of money for the U.S. government’s National Missile Defence system that, according to what I heard about it, doesn’t work, hasn’t been adequately tested, and probably won’t have any use anyway, since the main threat against North America today doesn’t seem to be ballistic missiles from a foreign power? If I remember correctly, the Conservatives were quite happy with this idea, even though it seems to me like a obvious waste of public funds, because they believed it would help the Canada-U.S. relations. And now, Sam Stone, don’t say I’m against this project because of knee-jerk anti-Americanism, because it’s not true. I don’t care that it comes from the U.S.; to me, it’s useless and costs too much, and I would have expected a fiscally conservative party to at least mention this. So it leads me to wonder if, for Conservatives, “it costs too much” actually means “we disagree with this idea”.
I have the same fear, but on the other hand I think that it will become more and more necessary to offer more power to the provinces and a Senate reform would be a good first step in this direction. I would also like the provinces to eventually have more powers and the federal government less, which could also decrease the amount of power than even a reformed Senate would have, since most decisions would be taken at the province level. And yes, I realise that most people in this thread are rather in favour of a strong federal government, as are probably most Canadians – for reasons that I am still not quite sure of, so I would like to have my ignorance fought – so it probably won’t happen, but it might be what Canada needs.
Well, that’s not what I heard. Of course, there are always proposals to try to maintain some sort of economic link between Canada and the new independent country, but that’s nothing near like “transfer payments”. And what’s this about getting parts of Labrador? That’s just silly, no one would ever suggest anything close to this. No, most proponents of independence just want to separate from Canada and not send taxes to Ottawa anymore nor get any money from Ottawa either. What you may have heard were federalists saying that an independent Québec would not survive and would require money from Ottawa.
Personally, I think Québec independence is economically feasible, but probably not as easy as some would think – even PQ leaders must sometimes officially say that no, independence would not be the end of all of our problems – and it may not even be necessary to build a Canada that people from all provinces would want to live in. Add to this the difficulty of starting a new country with only 50 % approval. No, I think think that there are better ways to solve our problems and we should concentrate on them, but I must say that if there is another referendum, that “Yes” will look tempting.
This said, I think it would be interesting if the Canadians from other provinces who are opposed to Québec independence tell us why they are opposed to it. I mean, what I often hear from the rest of Canada is that we’re lousy whiners who cost you so much money in transfer payments, and according to some right-wingers, we’re also dictating Canada’s foreign policy, preventing the country from following its destiny and being closer the the U.S. (Of course, I think this is bullshit; many non-Quebecers also want a foreign policy that doesn’t mimic too closely the Americans’ – and not always because of knee-jerk anti-Americanism, Sam Stone.) If we’re so bad for the country, why aren’t they encouraging us to leave?
As for my opinions on this election, well, looking at the first polls, I believe that we can expect a result similar to last time’s. And I agree that it’s a shame. I would like to see a Conservative minority, since it would force the Liberal party to reconsider itself. And I don’t fear a Conservative minority; it is likely that such a government would have to make concessions to the other parties, especially on social issues. (There are quite a few socially conservative Liberals, but I don’t think the Conservatives can govern as a majority only with their support.) But it appears now that the result will be the same as last year’s, which of course will have solved nothing. Yes, I think it will be a rather boring election.
From Sam Stone
I don’t see this as true at all. I think the majority of easterners (at least from Ontario) have no fear at all about Alberta seperation. I know I don’t, and neither do most of the people I talk to. We are aware there are some fringe people who may consider it, but hell there are some fringe people who want Toronto to be its own province. There are always going to be loons, we even gave them some currency.
From Sam Stone
Please don’t lump as all in with foaming at the mouth. Very few of us actually think you are equivalent to the Taliban. Don’t forget Ontario sends Billions of dollars as well. And lets not kid ourselves, this is really an ONT-ALB arguement here, with a few QUE’s involved. We in Ontario also feel the same way. The angst Albertans feel when we elect another Liberal government, and the hyperbole that usually comes flying at us from the west annoys us as well. Sometimes I feel as though Alberta feels it should get to run the country the way it wants to, without any regard for the rest of the country. I am sure this is how albertans feel as well. If the Toronto Star makes fun of Harper for wearing a cowboy hat and vest all you hear is oh those damn ontarions, cowboy hats are part of our culture, there is nothing silly about them, regardless of how silly Harper looked in one (I think it was the vest that made him look so funny personally). Everytime we elect liberals the cry from out west is about how stupid we are for falling for the same old tricks again. I would like to be able to vote for the Conservatives, however I don’t think I can, for many of the reasons I initially laid out.
From alice in wonderland
Wow, just wow. I can’t believe this was said. Jealous? I don’t think that is even close to an issue. Newfoundland has its own oil. Ontario still contributes greater wealth to this country then any other province. For years I have heard about the arrogance of Toronto in its attitude to the rest of the country. I suppose that has moved to Calgary along with all the educated 18-24 years olds?
From Sam Stone
I agree with part of this statement. I look forward to the day when the Conservative party once again attempts to listen to the eastern voters, rather then complain we aren’t listening to them. Pro-business with a strong social safety net is what I look for. Strong on defense isn’t one of my priorities, but I do think the current funding levels are a little bit of a joke. As to the ‘knee-anti Americanism’ that you find in the Liberal and NDP party, is just not there in the Liberal party (Carolyn Parrish aside). The Liberal listens to Canada when it comes to the US. Going into Iraq would have been wrong, agreeing to the missile defense plan would have been just another huge waste of money. When the US had reasonable leadership, one that at least pretended to listen to the rest of the world, Canada was always right there with them. As I have said before one of the major problems facing Harper and the Conservatives is Bush. We hate him here…a lot, and tend to see Harper as to willing to go along with what he wants. There is no doubt in my mind that is we had elected a Conservative party government our boys would be dieing in Iraq as well.
from Gorsnak
This would be a terible move by the Conservatives. If I saw them working with the party that is dedicated to destroying my beloved country they would lose my vote forever.
from severus
Goalies.
Regarding the supposed animosity between Ontarians, Quebeckers, and Albertans, I think a lot of this appears in the media, but generally speaking people are people. I have friends here in Ottawa who are from Alberta and we have way more in common as Canadians than we have differences.
I was at a Grey Cup party last night where half the Ontarians were rooting for Montreal and the other half for Edmonton. I have worked with polite, friendly Quebeckers for years and never encountered anything but warm smiles and intelligent, professional attitudes. In fact Quebeckers will apologize to you when you’re visiting their place of work because their English isn’t perfect. I always tell them it’s a lot better than my French!
With the Olympics coming up, do we care if Jerome Iginla is from Edmonton, or if Martin St. Louis is from Quebec, or if Joe Thornton is from Ontario? Didn’t think so.
I have heard a lot in the news about the rest of Canada somehow being jealous about the wealth of Alberta. So how come I’ve never once experienced it in my personal life?
I’ve heard a lot in the media about Stephen Harper’s hidden/scary agenda? Huh? Go to the Conservative web site. There’s nothing hidden at all about what the Conservatives plans are. The Liberals do in fact control a lot of the media in Canada.
Regardless of what you were taught in geography, there are 10 provinces and 3 teritories in Canada. While Ontario (and Toronto specifically) might not be jealous of Alberta’s wealth, how about Saskatchewan? My parents live in Manitoba, and their neighbours certainly grumble about Alberta having all that oil $$ and not sharing. My great aunt is in BC and she and her cronies discuss Alberta’s money, and if they should get a slice of the pie. I’d be willing to bet that Quebecers wouldn’t complain if Alberta started sending them $$.
I’m going to type this very slowly - just because people in Ontario or Toronto feel a specific way, doesn’t mean that people in the other 9 provinces feel the same way. Tough to believe, I know. But try. Really.
Gosh, another shot at Ontarians. Incidentally, you do know that no matter how slowly you type it, that doesn’t affect how fast people read it, right?
Yes, you may know greedy people in Manitoba and B.C. But the constant, never-ending complaint is that ONTARIO dominates Parliament, that Ontario is the one with all the votes, and how the fools who put together the system came up with the crazy idea that each voter should get a roughly equal vote. Sure as hell, it’s come up in thread. I’ve never heard anyone complain about Saskatchewan setting the agenda. Furthermore, the person you’re so happily taking shots at made it fairly clear that s/he was talking about Ontario, specifically, because that was where they were from and hence is their experience.
Furthermore, while you may claim all you want that you know this or that person who is jealous of Alberta’s weath, I have never, ever, seen a poll in which this registered as a significant concern to the Canadian voter, and unless you can provide actual evidence to the contrary, I simply don’t believe people really give much of a shit. Canadians are largely concerned about jobs, the health care system, and other things that actually directly affect them. That’s why the Conservatives are having such difficulty mustering a lot of outrage over the sponsorship scandal; why should Joe Twofour care about it when he’s worried about keeping his job or pissed off that the nearby hospital is going to shit?
[QUOTE=RickJay]
. . . why should Joe Twofour care about it . . .QUOTE]
Joe Sixpack’s Canuck cousin?
Of course it won’t matter if we win gold. If we don’t win the gold, then it is all Gretzkys fault, and of course he is from Ontario.
WTF??
This has absolutely nothing, whatsoever, to do with what I posted. I posted that many people in Canada are jealous of Alberta’s wealth, and would like to have some of there own. I made no mention, anywhere, in any of my posts about the fact that Parliament is in Ontario. Further, I’ve never suggested that Alberta should get more votes than they currently do, or suggested that Ontario should get less.
However, you carry on.
Well I thought this was a mostly civil discussion, but I guess not. A completely uncalled for shot about intelligence. Thanks for that ever so helpful contribution to this discussion. I of course am aware of the fact that there are more provinces then just Ontario, Quebec and Alberta. To me this ‘jealous of Alberta wealth’ is just another example of Western (and Alberta in particular) snobbery. Since we don’t vote the way you want, it must be because we are stupid.
Generally, the flow of this thread has been an ONT v ALB theme. Maybe if you read the whole thing, not just bits and pieces you would have realized. Frankly what you have written in here is almost on par with foaming at the mouth for the amount in contributes to this discussion. Thanks for trying though, :wally
Just as an FYI - the putz isn’t allowed outside the pit - it’s considered an insult. However, you’re new, so I won’t bother reporting it.
Oh, BTW - as to me reading the whole thread - I have read the whole thread. Including a whole bunch of people spouting garbage about Alberta separation, which is so funny, I almost peed my pants.
My response has been a sum total of “meh” as well as “Alberta won’t seperate”
If that’s foaming at the mouth in your world, you must have it pretty easy.
First of all, I’m saying that’s crap. This “jealousy” primarily resides in your mind. It’s simply not a significant political factor in this country. If you have actual evidence to the contrary (not “I know this guy in BC”) then post it. You’re making the positive assertion.
No, you did not. You did, however, elaborately insult the intelligence of an Ontarian poster for having the temerity to explain her/his impression of what Ontarians think of the issues, and implied that somehow the poster was representing the opinions of Ontarians as being typical of the entire country, - which s/he clearly did not.
This is, unfortunately, typical of Canada’s biggest problem, the source of which I cannot adequately describe without going to the Pit, but which involves people barking about province-country rivalries that largely exist only in their own fevered imaginations. We have a sizable minority in Quebec babbling about how the rest of Canada wants to “humiliate” and “provoke” them, when in fact the rest of Canada mostly6 desperately wants Quebec to be part of Canada. We’ve got Ontarians (not in this thread, but read the Toronto Star someime) shrieking about imaginary Western demons and fiscal gaps that don’t exist. We’ve got Albertans talking about “jealousy” that nobody outside Parliament Hill actually feels. We’ve got Newfoundlanders refusing to fly the Canadian flag because they’re convinced Ottawa doesn’t send enough money. I’ve met Nova Scotians who really, honestly believed I hated Halifax because it isn’t Toronto and were surprised when I said I thought it was a great place. And did you know that Torontonians - well, the politicians and the Toronto Star, anyway - are absolutely convinced that the country is ripping them off? Hell, we’ve got severus saying this amazing paragraph:
Canadians don’t want Quebec to leave the country because QUEBEC IS A PART OF CANADA. Canada’s a nation-state. It is not a ledger, for fuck’s sake. Ir’s not a goddamned scorecard. Canadians want the country to remain together because we’ve spent centuries of blood and sweat building the fucking country, from the ground up. We’ve built one of the freest, richest, greatest places to live in human history out of a pile of rocks and trees, and Quebec - as well as Ontario, Alberta, Manitoba, etc. - is an integral part of it. Maybe some people don’t want this wonderful experiment to be pulled apart on account that a party of lying, bigoted fearmongers get stiffies from the idea of having an embassy in Paris.
Assuming that the rest of Canada spends a lot of time bitching about Quebec - which, again, is largely bullshit - so what? Canadians have a right to bitch about federal politics. Saying that this means they want Quebec out of the country is like saying that a sibling who disagree with another sibling’s choice of music wants them disowned.
What we really need in this country, more than anything else, is for people to just shut the fuck up about this. Shut up, shut up, shut up. Just drop this regional crap and all the related issues - fiscal gaps, transfer payments, proportional representation, the works - for 20 years. Let’s do something about the Indian Act, for Christ’s sake. Let’s make a goddamn decision about health care. Let’s fix the Armed Forces.
Regrettably, the current ruling party lives on this regional disparity shit, and so does the PQ, and the Conservatives, as we have discussed, haven’t been smart enough to transcend the issue, and of course the provincial politicans feed on it like pigs at the trough. I fervently hope that my worst fears are not true and that our country isn’t going to be pulled apart by whiny, bleating maggots who think about their own particular administrative division first and the country last.
Present company excluded, of course.
applause
Good show, RickJay, good show.
Reading that was the hilight of my evening, much better than the CBC radio coverage of the vote. The Liberals just fell and the talking heads are coming out.
Happy campaigning, Canada!
Ahh, I did not know that. I have now read the sticky. I make no apologies as you basically called me stupid, is that allowed? Please don’t do me any favours, go ahead and report me. Regardless, enough of that, it is neither here nor there.
And what you gleaned from it is that the rest of Canada thinks Alberta will seperate and we are jealous of Alberta’s oil wealth? May I suggest reading it again?
To Rickyjay , I pretty much agree with everything you said. I want Quebec to stay as part of Canada for exactly that reason, that it is part of Canada, and played a very important role in helping to create this country. As has PEI, NFLD, Alberta, BC and so on.
What I have written in this thread my taken as “province-country rivalries that largely exist in my own fevered imagination”, but that is not what I intended. I was just answering the OP questions,
So Can Dopers what are your predictions for the election? Same as usual (doubtful)? Will The Conservatives find a way to connect?
to the best of my abilities, and explaining how I think most Ontarions of like political mind feel.
I said this:
SamStone said this:
RickJay said this:
Queuing said this:
Now, you’ll notice that nowhere in my post did I mention Ontario, apart from saying that I think it’s swell. Now, you folks may not believe me. You don’t have to believe me, but at least 3 seperate people from 3 seperate have-not provinces have suggested to me that Alberta should be sharing more. I’m not surprised this doesn’t occur to the majority of Ontarioans - you guys have lots of money. If you were in Manitoba, and had none, perhaps reading about Alberta’s oil riches would make you jealous - it certainly seems to with a large proportion of the population that lives in my parent’s neck of the woods.
Sam on the other hand has suggested that someone from DOWN EAST which I can only understand to mean Ontario, is pissed off about Alberta’s oil and Alberta’s oil money to the point where they may take some sort of steps to get some. I know nothing about this.
I think it’s possible that RickJay and Queuing are combining posts in your heads, and somehow getting that I think Ontario is jealous of Alberta’s wealth. I don’t. As RickJay pointed out, most Ontarioians don’t think too much about Albertains, 'cus they have their own money, the largest city in the Country, the Countries capital, a shit-load of politicians, and Sudbury, which is enough to worry about.
Manitoba, Saskatchewan, or the Yukon, on the other hand, have a lot less to think about. Wheat. Locusts. Plague. Pestulance. Having no money. I think in their place, having a really wealthy neighbour that didn’t seem to be sharing would maybe stick in the craw a bit more.
Hell, maybe I’m full of shit. Maybe the many people who have disucssed this with me are figments of my imagination - it’s totally possible.
However, purely from a social standpoint, it’s pretty hard to watch your neighbour spending their asses off, while you go without.
Anyhow - as I said - the election is “meh”. Politics are “meh” Canadian politics are “meh” Canadian political parties are really “meh”.
Alberta won’t seperate. Quebec won’t seperate. The Yukon won’t seperate and Ontario won’t seperate. Everyone will go on bickering about non-issues and nothing in particular will get done for the next 50 years, not unlike the last 50 years. Status quo, my friends. Status quo.
And finally, if it wasn’t clear, I like Ontario. I lived in Ontario for a large portion of my life. Most members of my family live in Ontario. Many of my best friends live in Toronto. I wouldn’t mind living in Ontario. It’s really a nice place and I’ve had some excellent hiking experiences in Ontario. Canada’s Wonderland is fun, and Kingston is lovely and historic. Ontario is a really nice place where all Canadians should either consider visiting or living. And finally, I don’t think Ontario want’s Alberta’s money.
thank-you. That is all.
From alice_in_wonderland
As you so kindly pointed out in a post directed at myself, Canada consists of 10 provinces, and 3 territories. One of these provinces in Canada is Ontario, making it quite plausibe that people from Ontario are included in this jealousy, combined with the general location of the posters partaking in this thread (from ONT/ALB), that is where I got it from.
To be honest I have never been farther west then Ontario, hell not even very far west IN Ontario, I have been East however. <Ignorance alert> Is the description of "Manitoba, Saskatchewan, or the Yukon, <snip> having no money really accurate? Are we talking trailer parks, trailer trash? Or just the ‘normal’ wealth difference between urban/rural? As a follow up, it is a common thought of us lifelong GTA’ers that most of the rest of Canada strongly dislikes Toronto for many reasons, regardless of truth would you say the rest of Canada is jealous of ONT wealth as well? That maybe regional differences are based on jealousy of money?
So what?
Something like twenty million people are eligible to vote in the next election. Your anecdotes aren’t relevant, as a thousand people smarter than me have said ten thousand times on this board.
Jesus.
Please, please, please, for the love of Christ, would you please
DROP
THE
FUCKING
REGIONAL
RIVALRY?
Can we please set a new rule; nobody is allowed to make any sort of ad hominem argument in this thread based on province of origin, okay?
This has nothing to do with me being from Ontario and the people you say you know being from Manitoba, or whatever. It really would not matter if I was from Jupiter. Anecdote isn’t the singular of data. Don’t you understand that? Who you happen to know just doesn’t matter; an individual’s personal acquaintances are simply not a reliable sample. If I polled the people I personally know I would have to conclude that 100% of the electorate support gay marriage, since to be honest I don’t personally know of any acquaintance I have who opposes it (granting that I haven’t asked everyone.) But that’s just not factually true, is it?
When you provide actual evidence that Alberta’s wealth is in fact a significant, potentially vote-changing issue to a substantial number of Canadians, that will be a very interesting thing. “I know three people” means absolutely shit.
Whoa. I was talking about the future, and the potential problems that could arise if Alberta’s economy continues to outpace the rest of Canada’s. At some point, there will be friction. I shouldn’t have said ‘down east’. Merely between Alberta and the rest of Canada.
Now, a lot of this is theoretical, but the essential problem is that there will be one province, Alberta, that has disproportionate economic power and increasing political power due to the strategic value of oil. And yet the political power is held in Eastern Canada. It remains to be seen how much of a problem that would be, and how it’s resolved. For example, Alberta could respond to this by giving more of it to Canada voluntarily. I think I’ve noticed in the past few years a real reduction in the number of people that don’t like the equalization payments. That might be a reflection of changing attitudes, of Albertans understanding that they’ve got it pretty well off and being willing to share.
On the other hand, there are still plenty of Canadians who have beefs with various provinces. I think there are Albertans mad at Quebec’s dual standards with language laws, equalization payments, and yet constant threats to leave the country. There are Albertans annoyed at the institutionalized pogey in Atlantic Canada, at the gun registry, and at the continual shortchanging of Canada’s military. And plenty of people in the east annoyed at Alberta for constantly trying to tug the country to the right and squawking about not having enough power. The fact is, we’re different people. Alberta is significantly more conservative than the rest of Canada, and that causes tension in both directions.
But no one’s about to separate.