I like Mark Kelly and Andy Beshear, both as vice presidents for Kamala Harris. But they both have drawbacks. A Harris/Kelly ticket has two westerners. I think a geographic balance is important, but maybe it doesn’t matter anymore. And Beshear is from a red state, which I don’t think he can win on a presidential ticket. But maybe he can?
I don’t think it helps Harris to be cautious. It’s better to pick someone who will fit into the campaign she wants to run, as long as they meet some minimum criteria.
No, there is no way in this political universe that California doesn’t go blue and give its electors to Harris. What I mean is, a ticket with two Californians on it, fairly or unfairly, will be off-putting to millions of people across the country.
Well, Beshear (for example) has demonstrated an ability to connect with rural white voters. Kentucky itself probably isn’t winnable, but there are lots of swing States where that could come in handy. So “geographic balance” isn’t necessarily about winning the candidate’s specific home State.
The Constitution doesn’t allow a State to give its electoral votes to Presidential and VP candidates from the same State. If they really wanted to do it, though, Kamala could just change her legal State of residence.
More thoughts on Andy Beshear…
Andy won in 2019 for three reasons: 1.) he mostly stayed out of the big national issues and tried to keep the race local, 2.) he had name recognition because his dad was also a pretty good governor (which had previously helped him win the AG race), and 3.) his opponent was Matt Bevin, an incumbent Republican carpetbagger who managed to personally screw over most of the state, including the teachers.
He won by about 5000 votes out of nearly 1.5 million. The Libertarian candidate got 30K.
He became as popular as he did by, for lack of a better way to put it, being there. In the pandemic he was on TV every day at 5:00 being firm but reassuring and dismissing partisan nonsense. When floods came to our area and tornadoes wrecked a couple of towns out west he was right there on the ground. Most people don’t think of him in terms of policies and political stances, but as being a competent guy doing a great job of running things.
That isn’t to say he has avoided the culture wars completely. The one thing his haters like to cite is that on Easter Sunday in 2000 he dispatched the state police to churches that insisted on having in-person indoor services. The point was to record license plate numbers to notify people when outbreaks occurred (as they were at other in-person gatherings), but you can imagine how that went over.
Even as popular as he is, he only won his re-election 52.5-47.5 against a pretty unremarkable Republican. (He was black, which I guess is remarkable in itself.)
In short, Beshear’s popularity is mostly due to opportunity and staying out of the bigger partisan scrum. He can’t recreate that as a VP candidate. And his crossover appeal is greatly exaggerated. I’m a huge fan and he’d be a great VP, but I can’t see him adding much to the ticket.
I don’t see that Beshear has avoided culture war issues. He’s used executive orders to try to protect access to abortion and medical cannabis, and he’s vetoed legislation targeting trans kids.
Worst case scenario is the California electors would vote for Harris for president and some other Democrat for Vice President and the VP election would be thrown to the Senate.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly are among the Democrats who have been asked to submit information about their finances, family histories and other personal details, two people familiar with the process told CNN’s Jeff Zeleny. They are part of a group that includes about 10 names, nearly all of whom are elected officials.
The last three are untenable- Whitmer, Buttigieg and Newsom.
I was thinking in terms of Josh Shapiro because of the need for winning at least two of the three blue wall states. Upon further consideration, i believe Mark Kelly would be an inspired choice: He has the credentials and the gravitas to be a huge asset in the campaign, he’s replaceable by a Democrat in the Senate, and he would be more difficult for Trump and Vance to trash,. And Shapiro would still be effective in PA as Governor campaigning for ,Harris/Kelly.
But the point i want to make is this: As a lifelong Georgia resident (except for a couple of years in Florida as a kid back when it was still a southern state) and as someone who’s had some experience in GA government and politics, i have to say that neither Harris nor Biden can win GA in 2024.
There are a number of complicated reasons for this conclusion but i believe it’s true.
I do think Dems can win Arizona and Mark Kelly can certainly help there. His national campaigning may even be able to help beat Kari Lake’s Senate bid to turn Sinema’s seat to the R column (although Democrats will loose control of the Senate). Good will toward Kelly in the southwest may even help in Nevada and New Mexico which the Dems need to maintain. Winning those smaller states plus PA and at least one of MI or WI could be a winning strategy (I hope).
I’m not DSeid, but, although I don’t think Pritzker is especially corrupt, he just looks like a corrupt party boss straight from central casting. And since everybody thinks Illinois is hopelessly corrupt anyway, that would make him vulnerable to attacks based on that.
I don’t think he’s an especially gifted orator or campaigner, and Illinois obviously isn’t a swing State. I like the guy but I just don’t see what he adds to the ticket.