Then we should just imagine if Harris added Steve Bullock, who’s like both of those on steroids and wants to increase anti-corruption legislation - which could doom Trump even more in the long run.
Apologies if this point has been raised (sufficiently) already, but picking a VP candidate because you think he/she will help carry their (key) home state, historically hasn’t worked out well.
I’m against picking KY governor Andy Beshear to be the VP candidate, not because it’d be futile to think he’d swing red Kentucky into the Democratic column, but because he’s needed here to help limit damage done by the Republican-dominated state legislature.
The smart argument, though, isn’t “Beshear would be good because he would help us carry Kentucky”. It’s “Beshear’s success in Kentucky indicates that he can appeal to rural white voters, which could come in handy in multiple swing States”.
I’m currently vacillating between him and Kelly.
Doubling back to Shapiro (and yes @Jackmannii it was raised, with a cite to a Silver analysis that claims small but real, 3% on average for a sitting governor or senator, more small than large state), any help in delivering PA is huge. And I’m rethinking my concern regarding Jewish and supporting Israel. What Harris will say matters more and I can imagine Harris stating clearly that Israel’s right, obligation even, to self defense does not excuse any and all actions, that she plans on pressing for a ceasefire and a path to a just peace, with more room to go there more strongly by way of having a Shapiro on the ticket.
So far my sense from this thread is that there is great bench of candidates! To me the top three are now Shapiro, Kelly, and Beshear.
Agreed. I think Kelly over Beshear, but those two are great finalists. When will she pick? After she’s the official nominee, I suppose. But with the short time they have…
They need some number of days to check out the top possibilities from an opposition research standpoint. However, and I could be wrong, I think the logic of the situation calls for an early pick. You want to get the name before the public prior to the GOP having an opportunity to define them. It would be a mistake if the name was leaked and there then was a week or two before the formal announcement.
It’s a while to the convention. But on CNN it is said Harris has enough delegates to cinch the nomination. So I think she’ll pick before the convention.
I’d prefer a woman, like Whitmer, but the others being named are good too. People seem excited now.
Candidates always clinch before the convention, and still delay the VP pick until the convention. Otherwise, who would pay attention to the convention? I bet this is how it works this year, too.
I don’t actually know what Shapiro’s positions are on the Gaza war. I think an outspoken pro-war candidate would be bad whether they were Jewish or not. I think the only way a Jewish VP makes sense is to provide political cover in the event Harris decides to be tougher on Bibi than Biden was. If she’s sticking with Biden’s policy, a Jewish running mate only draws more attention to that unpopular position.
I do, but the real answer is to pick whatever helps her win the most. We need all 80 Million votes from 2020 again.
His position that Israel has a right and obligation to defend itself and to rid Gaza of Hamas would likely meet your “pro war” criteria. But the question then considers that impact with your second part: Harris herself advocating being tougher on Bibi. (Which she has been the voice of doing in the administration.)
In 2020, Biden picked Harris on August 11. The convention started August 17.
In 2016, Trump picked Pence on July 15. The convention started July 18.
In 2016, Clinton picked Kaine on July 22. The convention started July 25.
In all cases, a few days before the convention. I think that Harris makes a choice before the convention this year as well.
The smart thing is to watch where the headlines are going, and announce when you need something else off the front page.
I think if she really wanted to go that route, the most Israel-critical Jewish Senator other than Bernie is Brian Schatz, and I’m not hearing his name in any of these discussion, so she’s probably not doing that.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-23/harris-crosses-delegate-threshold-in-sign-nomination-is-hers
Kamala Harris has more than enough pledged delegates to clinch the Democratic presidential nomination, following an extraordinary two-day blitz that saw the vice president consolidate her party’s backing to challenge Donald Trump in November.
You misunderstand the play. It would not be effective if the running mate was Jewish and very vocally critical of Israel. That would not provide any cover for her to go hard on Bibi herself like Shapiro would.
Best “Bachelorette” episode ever.
I also believe Harris/Kelly is the winning ticket. This is the most optimistic I’ve felt in the entire campaign.
A guy with life experience like Kelly, I mean, come on! He piloted a spaceship, FFS! Not to mention naval boats (aircraft carrier?), senator, husband to shooting victim that launched a lot of gun-control awareness, conservative border control, etc.
I just think he has the best optics.
Although I’d like to hear them speak. Someone charismatic and good on the stump would be valuable.
My logic is that if she gets tough with Israel, the QOP will accuse her of being anti-Semitic, and a Jewish running mate who backs her up would defuse those attacks. OTOH, anyone who thinks someone with a Jewish husband is anti-Semitic is probably voting for Trump anyway, so maybe it doesn’t matter.