Harris VP choice as she is the official presidential nominee of the Democratic Party for 2024

Politics & Elections
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As has been noted repeatedly, a good VP pick doesn’t usually move the needle much in the home state. But a less-than-awesome VP pick can cut hard against the candidate.

With this in mind, I still pick Kelly.

Shapiro is Jewish. This has the potential to cut either way in Pennsylvania and across the rest of country. If it delivers Pennsylvania, that’s great. But there is no way to know if he will be able to do so with Gaza on the ballot. Remember, too, that Netanyahu would love to see a second Trump term. He more than anyone has the power to make Gaza a central issue for November 2024. I don’t have any doubt at all which way Bebe will go.

Kelly doesn’t guarantee Arizona for Dems, but he doesn’t hurt their chances there, either. More importantly, he doesn’t potentially hurt in Michigan, as Shapiro does. That alone is enough to persuade me.

Most VPs don’t have the power to excite voters much. I would argue that Kelly is a rare exception to this usual rule. He has the astronaut cred, the military cred, the border cred. Most importantly, he has the gun control cred – a very popular issue of concern among young voters.

And this is merely an empirical observation, but I’ll add it for consideration: After living my whole life in the western half of this country, it seems that the eastern half is far more “Jewish-centric” than the west. We have a respectable number of Jews in the west, but we’re not terribly focused on Jewish issues out here (unless you’re Jewish, of course).

The situation in Gaza is tragic and massively angering, but I don’t think it assumes the level of concern in the western half of the country that it does in the eastern half. Out here, the border issue is far more top-of-mind for many voters (rightly or wrongly).

School vouchers are another dicey subject that could hurt Shapiro.

The observation made earlier in the thread that Kelly as a VP pick could excite voters in states like Nevada, New Mexico, and I would add Texas and Montana, is tantalizing.

I like Josh Shapiro. I think he could make a fantastic VP. But from where I sit, he doesn’t excite the imagination the way Kelly does, and he brings a lot more friction to the ticket.

In the end, I think excitement and positivity are what will matter most in 2024 – along with staying as far away from contentious issues as much as possible.

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He’s an observant Conservative Jew, but I’m not sure that implies he is a religiously conservative Jew, if you get my meaning. I understand he keeps kosher, but so do several liberal and liberal-leaning Jews I’ve known. In 2021 Pew said about 70% of Conservative Jews were Democrats/Democrat-leaning (also 80% of Reform Jews and 20% of Orthodox Jews). Also it looks like something over 2/3 of observant Jews generally are Dem/D-leans.

Of course I don’t live in PA and haven’t followed him. Other than just being observant in what other ways is he demonstrably religiously conservative?

565

In any debate, that’s an easy rebuttal. “I had concerns about specific elements of the bill and negotiated changes to address my concerns. That is called legislation.”

Oh yeah, @mjmartin , totally the “never Trump” quotes. Now that is flipflopping.

He was a marine, but went correspondent, not infantry or recon or tank driver. Not an actual combatant. Probably a coward. Where did he do his term? Fallujah? Germany?

Might be amusing from a Republican protective, but horrible choice from a Democratic one. Haley is solidly Republican if not the complete “take women’s rights away” anti-abortion that the rest of the Party has gone. She’s also a flip flopper with her decision to support Trump.

Now if she were to publically announce that since Harris is the new Dem candidate, she can no longer support Trump for president, I might give her a little credit back for her convictions. But as it stands, she is just another politician with no convictions bending knee to the Trump.

She doesn’t even have to back Harris, just stand by her conviction that Trump is unfit.

Perhaps, but Vance is a big nutter who only has a career because of Peter Thiel. Thiel pretty much got him every job he’s had (and failed at) since the Marines, including the VP gig. I think even I could take him on in a debate, especially one that won’t happen.

566

According to his Wikipedia entry, he served in the Marines for ~4 years (2003-2007), and spent six months of that in Iraq. The article does not note where he spent the remainder of his service time.

567

“For the last nine months of his service, Vance was the media relations officer for the Marine Corps Air Station in Cherry Point, North Carolina,” per USA Today.

568

Apparently Beshear just tweeted something about no matter what happens he’s always proud to be from Kentucky which a Youtube channel is interpreting as him leaking that he is the VP pick. See here if you want to watch the speculation:

569

Well not my first choice, but he’s a white male from a red state with executive experience. What he really has going for him is his youth. If he’s veep for eight years, he’s still not even half way through his fifties

570

So I’m erring towards Shapiro not because I’m particularly a fan politically, but because he apparently is very popular in Pennsylvania and winning there is incredibly important. There are far far more routes to the Whitehouse with PA than without it for the Dems.

That said is there actually any evidence to back up the assertion that picking a popular governor of a state as VP will significantly increase the chances of winning that state?

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And being re-elected in a very red state running on protecting reproductive rights and Medicaid expansion as part of ACA. Where the campaign wants to conversations focused on.

The common thread is that each of them have successfully gotten votes from the center and the center right mostly selling the core Democratic issues.

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I don’t get that. I would hope the VP pick would be far more gushing and enthusiastic that than.

Also I thought he was out as his replacement would be appointed by the GOP (specifically a MAGA election denying official)

573

Depends on your definition of significantly. Silver (cites given in this thread) has varied from saying it delivers 3% ish for a sitting governor or senator, to less than 1% in articles from 2016 and now respectively.

In a close tipping point state less than 1% could be the significant few. 3% big.

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I don’t want to tip my hand, but whatever happens I’ll always be proud to have posted on this message board.

575

Beshear is governor, not a senator. If he takes the veep job he would be replaced by the lieutenant governor, who is a Democrat and not up for reelection until 2027.

576

Ugh, Eric Holder is leading her VP search? The man has impressed me with exactly nothing that he’s ever done.

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Who else are you going to call for a fast and furious search?

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Possibly I had him confused with one the other VP contenders who was basically out of it for this reason.

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Or as one writer put it: “Most Conservative Jews are politically liberal, hence the name.”

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Also, Beshear is term limited, so he can’t run for governor again.

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Even on the low end I’d say that’s a big reason to pick Shapiro. Even a sub-1% bump would be huge in PA and with PA they can lose a lot of swing states and still win

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I know nearly nothing about Shapiro. But “Conservative” is a Jewish variant like “Presbyterian” is a Christian one. Despite the name, Conservative congregations tend to be politically liberal, and most Conservative Jews are politically liberal.

That being said, i think Shapiro is too Jewish. It’s an awfully Jewish name. And the set of people who are “uncomfortable” with Jews does not neatly overlap with the set of people who are “uncomfortable” with Black South Asian women. I would love for us to live in a world where being Jewish doesn’t hurt your chances of being elected. But we don’t live in that world, and i hope Harris wins the election.