Harris, Kelly, and Walz were all born the same year as my younger brother and so by definition are all kids.
Kelly looks the least attractive to me. Not recognizing any of them, i saw a collection of photos of the leading candidates, and saw Kelly and thought, “ugh”. Just a gut reaction, not anything objective or thought out. And i do think he looks “tough” and that could be used to advantage. But between Walz and Kelly, i give Walz the nod on physical appearance.
walz has a great smile. kelly has a more of a “don’t mess with me” look. walz has a “i’m your friend” look.
Jewish myself and that had been my first hot take. Most of that opinion I hear expressed is from Jews FWIW.
I am reminded of my own experience during the Clinton Obama primary race. At that point my alopecia was in its early stages and living in a community bordering with Chicago’s Austin community I found a barbershop that had an otherwise exclusively Black clientele that handle my hair better than others in my community. We talked politics a lot.
The owner was a big Hillary man and I was for Obama. He was sure a Black man was unelectable and thought I was hopelessly naive to think otherwise …
I will personally be happy with any of the list (unless that list includes Pritzker), including Buttigieg, but I think Shapiro is going to be her choice. A guess that serves no value than fun spit balling while we repeat ourselves waiting for some actual news …
Harris has a four point lead in PA in the latest polling. Maybe she easily wins there without Shapiro.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4800420-harris-lead-pennsylvania-casey-mccormick-poll/
I was talking with my personal trainer, who is gay. She said she hopes it isn’t Buttigieg, because she doesn’t think a gay man can win. And i made a parallel comment about Shapiro. And we both agreed it was a shame that sort of consideration is important.
But it’s not just because of antisemitism that I’m afraid Shapiro will put off potential voters. It’s also because of Gaza. I’m really afraid that will be a major issue and a lot of voters will stay home because of it.
I agree. The thing that concerns me most about Gaza is that it’s so vulnerable to manipulation by Netanyahu. And we both know who Bibi wants for president in 2024.
Interesting to hear the counterpart to folk proclaiming “It’s our turn NOW!” vs - well, let’s not over reach…
And it’s not just Gaza; Israel is unfortunately doing some pretty nasty stuff in the West Bank, too, with at least tepid support from the US. This is major baggage for Shapiro that the other two likely choices don’t have. They would at least be perceived as relatively neutral on these extremely controversial issues.
I’m quoting you out of context on purpose, just to say that’s really the most important reaction - at least for me it’s all I would care to know. It’s how most people vote or do anything really. It takes a lot of mental energy to ever overcome that initial subconscious reaction to apply cognitive reasoning to come to a different conclusion. And then most people just use their high-level cognition to justify their gut reaction anyways (not that they always realize it).
I think of the book Blink and similar psychology that describe the “mental processes that work rapidly and automatically from relatively little information” - it just happens, and it’s how we were built over millions of years. You have a gut reaction whether you want one or not.
For me, that gut reaction is Pete. It just is, I can’t help it and I won’t lie about it. My gut really just wants any two people who will turn the volume down and he seems very good at that - calm, rational, smart, soothing - I know if he was President I could walk away and all would be fine. I have to be convinced (rightly I’m sure) why I am wrong. Luckily, I’m sure whoever the VP is, a Harris/unknown VP ticket is the only way to turn the volume down and I’ll vote for them.
Do any of the polls ever just have a “hot take” reaction? No reasoning, no thoughts, no chance for BS justifications…just name/picture = yes or no; good or bad; hate them or like them; etc.
And my hot-take gut reaction is tough-guy badass Kelly. My more thought-out choice is Walz.
Not sure which is “better.”
Yes it’s a two pronged problem. It’s naive to think that all anti-semites are in one party. It doesn’t have to be blatant bias just an unease they might not even think about much. It may keep important votes at home.
A Shapiro pick will also bring Gaza to the forefront. I think Harris is doing a decent job threading the needle on the subject but better for the campaign if it’s not the focus.
After looking at both I would be happy with Walz or Kelly. Neither will hurt the ticket and both bring good qualities that may help bring in voters.
My gut feeling is still that it will be Kelly.
The NYT is reporting (gift link) that Harris plans to campaign starting next Tuesday with her running mate. Anonymous sources of course and based on a draft travel schedule.
Who knows how accurate this ends up but I had thought they might announce on Friday or Saturday so the Sunday news shows will be dominated by discussion of the choice.
Next Tuesday will be 8/6 for what it’s worth.
My gut is moving closer to thinking it will be Walz. Dude has been all over the talking head shows and seems to be on the trail more than Kelly. I’m not sure I’ve seen Kelly doing much recently other than quick “grab ‘n’ chats” with the press (I could be wrong, I just haven’t seen him out and about on the campaign trail or doing much television).
Man, if Walz appeals to progressives, as well as Midwestern voters and rural voters, he’s got it all. Plus he’s good with the veteran crowd, labor and public education. And he’s great on camera and in front of a room.
It’s been a process to get here, but Walz is my guy. I’ll get behind anyone once the name is added to the ticket, but I’m a Walz Boy now. Come on Harris-Walz!
I think I like Walz better but I also think Kelly will play better to get those edge Trump voters to move over which is important.
Honestly, I think both are good choices and I’ll happily line-up to support either ticket (to be fair, any choice she makes I will still line-up for the ticket but I like those two and a few others).
Yeah, I get that feeling about Kelly. There’s something about still photos of Kelly that just makes person think “badass,” while still photos of Walz look like a cross between Clarence from It’s a Wonderful Life and Pooh Bear.
I’m still going with Walz, for what little that matters
Yeah, Walz’ appeal to progressives on policy grounds, together with his appeal to people who think politicians should be middle-aged white men, seems like a good combination.
Plus his ability to engage on the issues with friendly good humor, and lots of practice speaking civics at a high-school level. He’s really charming, and it would be a nice contrast to have the “fun uncle” up against the creepy guy who likes to rant at you.
And America will change some by then.
Walz was a Command Master sergeant- that sort of very senior NCO will help. But Kelly saw combat. Shapiro was never in the Military, and Vance was- so I think he is out.
I don’t think a lot of voters care about military experience; IIRC, before Vance nobody with a military background had been on a major party ticket since 2008, and that didn’t end well. And even fewer are going to break it down by rank and combat status. OTOH, “Astronaut” is certainly a more impressive credential than “generic veteran”.