I do feel like Shapiro is not a great choice, but he is a great speaker.
Hopefully he can actually deliver PA without losing Michigan.
Because they’re going to get progressives to turn out to vote by highlighting the scary shit Trump will do if he gets back into office.
That’s not the point. Of course they would be expected to volunteer anything they think could hurt themselves, Harris, the campaign. In the normal circumstances where it takes months, they are also expected to volunteer anything they know of that could be a problem.
But 1) it would not be the first time if someone didn’t, and more likely 2) there are things out there that they don’t remember or think anything of. A line in a term paper, a photo at a party, a quote in an article. And it doesn’t even have to be something they did wrong. It can be just something that requires explanation that will eat up news cycles with something negative.
It’s behind a paywall but the upshot is;
PA is so critical to an electoral victory that even a few percentage points more of a chance of winning it is critical.
It brings in more moderates than it may lose progressives.
The Gaza issue is way overblown in terms of how much it will affect voting. It’s not a priority for many more people than is apparent.
It’s the boldest choice. It’s showing that she is picking whomever the fuck she wants and not doing an opinion poll.
Not that bold, he has been 1st or 2nd in most opinion polls.
I do think Gaza is important in Michigan, please don’t dismiss that so casually.
I was paraphrasing Silver’s analysis. He doesn’t even mention MI.
Guarantee PA but risk losing Michigan and suppressing the under 30 vote?
I don’t get the logic of that at all.
I keep asking this question and not getting many answers:
If Harris voices a position of pressing for an immediate ceasefire with pressure on Israel would having Shapiro as running mate (supporting her position of course) be enough of a poke in the eye that those Gaza centric voters would stay home, knowing that their votes could make a real difference and elect Trump, who would encourage no Israeli restraint?
Sorry, didn’t realize that. I think Silver is a bit off on what I mentioned.
I also would be highly shocked if they have not done polling and focus groups of that Gaza centric Detroit area Arab population to get a very strong sense of what the answer to that question is.
No matter who it is, the campaign knows all of the negative arguments and will have an answer to them.
Just so we know what we’re working with: Trump won Michigan by about 11,000 votes in 2016. Biden won Michigan by about 120,000 votes in 2020.
Michigan has just over 200,000 registered Muslim voters. Just under 70% went for Biden on 2020.
If it’s Shapiro, it’s going to be a heavy lift to win those voters back to the Dem ticket. I grew up in Dearborn, and there’s a LOT of general dislike and distrust of Israel/Jews among the Arab population there. Just very casual anti-Jewish anger. When I worked for the local newspaper there back in the early 2000s, I became friendly with a lot of Arabic business leaders, political leaders, religious leaders, and I was always a little stunned at how their Jewish/Israel hatred so easily flowed out when talking with me. I mean, it didn’t come up often, but when Israel did come up in conversation, the anger (even hatred) was palpable.
Well, that’s the hope anyway
Well, she had my vote until I just saw a Trump ad. Turns out she’s bad news.
This will be my reaction. Lots of insightful analysis here on the board, but none of us have access to the info her experts do.
Everyone wants to think that everyone on their “side” is good and everyone on the other “side” is bad. I’m afraid that’s not true. There are anti-semites on all sides. I would expect that percentage to be higher in certain areas.
Pennsylvania is very important. So is making sure the base comes out to vote. It is beyond everyone’s control and couldn’t be predicted but right now the most decisive issue for the base on the left is Gaza. Harris will have to thread the needle on the issue, no matter what but if she picks Shapiro, then the issue will be in the forefront. There are other narratives that they are going to want to be in the front. Above all every vote is needed, and she can’t afford to have anyone on the left not vote or make protest votes.
I hope I’m wrong about the chances of a Jewish candidate at the national level, but this is not the election to test that
I think Shapiro is the worst choice when it comes to election calculus. As a Vice President I wouldn’t have a problem with any of the leading candidates.
There are still 3 months to “earn back” any gettable voters who are angry about Gaza, in Michigan and elsewhere. And IMO the Democratic consensus – that Israel is entitled to defend itself but NOT to violate human rights, and that Netanyahu is a terrible leader who has tolerated the latter in multiple cases – can be expressed by any of the possible VPs, and will get most of those voters back.
I think we may be assigning too much weight to policy positions held by VPs prior to their selection. Certainly a crazy, extreme opinion can be an anchor. But VPs famously abandon any differences once they’re on the ticket. I don’t think Shapiro (or any of the candidates) will have any difficulty expressing a sincere “I support whatever Harris does” message and hammering it home.
Many of these voters are people who have family or friends dying, know people who have died, or have family struggling through this humanitarian crisis in real time. This isn’t the time to put someone they view as part of the problem on the ticket if Dems want their votes. You’re not going to “earn” them back in three months. They’ll stay home rather than vote for someone they see as a “Zionist,” I fear. Like I said, there’s a LOT of dislike and distrust of Jews amongst the Arab population in Michigan. Shapiro’s actions to shut down college protests will not be forgotten anytime soon by the voters who view this war as the main issue right now.
Personally, I would rather the Harris ticket not have to spend the next three months talking about this war, trying to convince an important voting block in an important state that their fears are actually being heard. With Shapiro, I don’t know how much of those 200,000 Muslim voters will be gettable.
I agree, but I think the problem with Shapiro is that it will bring Harris’ position (or lack of one) on Gaza into the fore. Right now, she can just sort of ignore it. If she chooses Shapiro, progressives are likely to demand a “clarification” on what Harris’ own position is and will be if elected. But neither Shapiro nor Harris can give a “clarification” that won’t piss off some segment of likely Democratic voters. Which position would alienate more or less of them is beside the point, because they are present in swing states in large enough numbers to matter.
The longer Harris can go without her position on Gaza being a question of concern, the better off she is. If she chooses Shapiro or anyone else who appears pro-Israel (or, heck, has expressed any option at all on Israel or Gaza or Palestine lately), it comes up right away.