Updated List of Players:
Alive
Dead:
Omi no Kami – Antonin Dolohov(Death Eater)
Drain Bead – Harry Potter(Order of the Phoenix Occlumens and Chosen One)
NormalPhase – Severus Snape (No Chosen Allignment - Had 1 Optional Night Kill)
OK, so the way I’m reading this, **NormalPhase **was a non-compulsory Vigilante who could choose which side to be on at some point in the game. In my view, having him die is a net positive for Town, because:
So, even though we lost our investigator and a lynch, by the numbers we’re still at 1 Town dead vs. 1 Scum dead, which is actually not bad for this point in the game. I am not as despondent as I was just yesterday 
I need to review Omi no Kami before I comment on Rysto’s post. I shall do so now.
For the record, and since there are so few, here is every non-fluff post Omi no Kami made on Day One. I think we should read over them carefully to see what we can glean:
Looking back at Omi’s vote for **Chipa **(post 199), here was the situation:
**Red **and **Chipa **were tied at two votes apiece with 24 hours left in the Day. **Omi’s **vote put **Chipa **in the lead 3-2. I think we can all agree that Omi’s vote post was a non-masterful bit of conditional-filled waffling. (It was so clumsy, in fact, that I fell victim to the “Scum would never say that” fallacy :smack: ). So what does that mean? What are the scum motivations for that vote?
*Assumption: Red Skeezix is scum and **Chipa *is Town - **Omi **sees that there’s only 24 hours left and wants to get a wagon rolling on **Chipa **to take the heat off Red. This is what **Rysto **is suggesting above. The conditionals in Omi’s post (e.g. “Red seems scummy, BUT…”) serve to insulate him a bit from blame if/when **Chipa **comes up Town. I find this to be a plausible scenario.
*Assumption: Red Skeezix is Town and **Chipa *is Town - **Omi **wins either way here, and picks one to get a wagon rolling on. The conditionals in this case could be a way to set up **Red **for a Day Two lynch. For example, when **Chipa **comes up Town, **Omi **says, “Crap, I got that wrong, but that means I was probably right about Red, since he was riding **Omi **so hard, etc.” In other words, by suggesting that they are both scummy, he sets up town vs. town for two days. I find this to be plausible as well, though I wonder why **Omi **would go out on a limb with the “**Red **is scummier, but **Chipa **is more annoying” choice, which was clearly more dangerous.
*Assumption: Red Skeezix is Scum and **Chipa **is Scum. * Omi’s vote makes no sense in this scenario. He would have voted for someone else entirely - with so many other votes still to come, there was no danger in choosing a different target. I find this to be totally implausible.
*Assumption: Red Skeezix is Town and **Chipa *is Scum. I suppose **Omi **could have suspected that **Chipa **was doomed and decided to bus him early, but on Day One with so few votes out, I don’t regard this as very likely at all. Not very plausible.
Conclusions:
[ul]
[li]By far the two most plausible scenarios have **Chipacabra **as Town. I am personally putting **Chipa **on my “Likely Town” list. [/li][li]If either **Chipa **or **Red **are scum, the other is 99% likely NOT to be scum.[/li][li]I find #1 above more plausible than #2 above. #2 would indicate a subtlety and long-term thinking that, in hindsight, **Omi **clearly did not demonstrate. [/li][/ul]
Given the slight suspicions I already had yesterday added to the above, there is no way that I cannot:
Vote Red Skeezix
[quote=“ShadowFacts, post:284, topic:544429”]
[li]I find #1 above more plausible than #2 above. #2 would indicate a subtlety and long-term thinking that, in hindsight, **Omi **clearly did not demonstrate. [/li][/QUOTE]
I briefly considered #2 myself, but I reject it because of the way that Omi phrased his vote. He was clearly trying to drum up support for a Chipa lynch specifically. If he was going for a 2-for-1 deal, he wouldn’t have had to push so hard against Chipa when it was pretty clear that he felt that the evidence was worse against Skeezix.
OK. So all due apologies for my absence yesterDay. In some ways it’s sort of helpful, though, because it allows me to take a look at the events of the Day without prejudice; I was a nonparticipant and not reading live, so my perspective is perhaps somewhat different from that of others (at least, for the moment).
With that in mind, time for my favorite thing – Day One vote analysis, or The Passion of Omi No Kami.
We start with a bit of early back-and-forth about information sharing and whatnot, which eventually morphs into further back-and-forth about scum slips and whether they happen and so on. From my perspective, this stuff, while interesting, is not really relevant to how it came to pass that Omi died, so I am skipping it and jumping straight to Page 3, Post #136, in which Chipacabra votes for tiltawhirl as a prod/placeholder vote.
Skeezix jumps on and votes Chip in response, at #139. His reasoning is fair – basically, he’s saying that Chip’s vote was a zero accountability vote, and one he (Chip) could use to affect the final count if tilt happens to swing without really being “responsible” for it. It’s thin, but for Day One as reasonable as it gets. Chip’s (almost immediate) response at #140 is similarly reasonable, and nothing about this exchange pings me particularly. Chip unvotes and then votes for me as an inactive player.
At #152, ShadowFacts goes after Skeezix for leaving out the “prodding” aspect of Chip’s vote for tilt. I don’t really agree with Shadow here. Leaving out part of an argument in order to discuss another part is sometimes necessary; otherwise we’d be blathering even more than we usually do (Jimmy agrees with this at #158). I also dislike “prodding” votes, because I don’t think they work; I, for example, was unable to participate until now, and Chip’s vote didn’t affect that one bit in either direction. But I don’t see anything untoward in Shadow’s argument (not agreeing with it doesn’t mean it’s scummy).
Chip votes for Skeezix at #165. I don’t like this vote. He says that skeezix has “talked himself into this vote,” but I don’t really understand why. Skeez restated his argument, essentially, at #163, and it hasn’t changed substantively since #139. I don’t understand what Skeez said at #163 that was worth a vote, that wasn’t in the post at #139 that didn’t draw a vote from Chip. Don’t like this vote, but think it’s a pretty good possibility that it’s textbook OMGUS – which I have come to view as a null tell. Chip clarifies a bit at #168, though, and honestly at this stage I see both Red and Chip as neither Scummy nor non-Scummy, and have almost literally no read on anyone else.
Rysto votes for Freudian Slit at #186. Basically Rysto doesn’t like that Slit has made two posts but not really said much. I tend to agree – it’s the kind of lurking Scum actually do, versus the sort of actual disappearing that happens to Scum and Town with proportional frequency.
Meeko votes for Chip at #193. Essentially the reasoning is that Chip is voting for lots of players with minimal justification, basically allowing him to be voting, and move freely, settling where he needs to without having to justify it (this is my understanding of Meeko’s vote; if Meeko would like to correct me, I hope he’ll do so). I don’t see his argument, at its heart, as particularly different from the one Skeezix has made.
VOTE COUNT
Chipacabra(2): Red Skeezix, Meeko
Red Skeezix(2): ShadowFacts, Chipacabra
Freudian(1): Rysto
Omi votes for Chip at #199 (third vote! Woo hoo!). His post seems to reference a great choice between Chip and Skeezix, but until Omi’s vote there really isn’t a vote leader at all. Given what we now know of Omi’s alignment, the timing and placement of this vote surely does look bad for Skeezix.
Votes start to fall on Omi. Drain starts (we know she is unaligned). Jimmy follows on, and frankly Jimmy’s vote seems most likely to be Town as any of the voters.
Chip says this (#209):
This is a ping for me. It always makes me raise an eyebrow when someone tries to point out how what they’re doing is something scum wouldn’t do. I’m usually tempted to say things like this when I am Scum, but I’ve done something that I genuinely believe to be pro-Town, and it’s driving me nuts that someone is riding me for something that I’m actually doing to appear more Town. Does that make sense? Anyway, the quote pings me. There’s also this:
Which, in light of Omi’s eventual alignment and the tenuous spot Omi was suddenly in (if Chip switched his vote from Skeez over to Omi, it’d have put Omi in a very precarious spot and tied with Chip himself.
Wanderers and Guiri jump on Omi fast nonetheless. Omi’s in trouble here, trouble exacerbated by the vote from Little Plastic Ninja which comes in. At #219, we get this, from ShadowFacts:
I struggle to believe that a Scummy ShadowFacts would make this post, knowing, as he would that Omi was going to turn up Scum. Why bother? To buy an evidently vanilla Scum a Day or Two, at best? After Omi’s statements, he was going to swing eventually. What benefit sticking your neck out that far to try to save him?
Wow. Well, that’s a lot of typing, for the following:
No vote yet.
We know that Drain was a town power role, actually; the protagonist of protagonists. Normal Phase, who didn’t even get to play, the poor bastard, nee ColdPhoenix, was the one who could have swung either way.
A couple of points about the events since our last day: I don’t think I agree with all the doom and gloom, and certainly not now that it appears the Death Eaters did us a favor at least as much as they did themselves. If Drain was going to go, the very first night seems like the best time. It seems pretty unlikely that a skipped Day cycle later in the game would have been easier to stomach, and pretty likely that it could have been crippling.
Hurts to lose a cop, certainly, but speaking of investigations: what’s the deal with the color? First, there’s the mention of the particular curse being used to kill - the first was crucio, the pain spell (with accompanying descriptions of the twisted and haunted expression of the boy-who-until-recently-lived), and the second was the killing curse, which just killed regular. Second, there’s:
That’s from Normal Phase’s, and a similar line is in Drain’s.
So, possibly unwarranted assumptions: 1. the Death Eaters can torture information out of people, or something? 2. there’s some sort of mechanism in place for identity tomfoolery and face morphing. Is that relevant to anybody now that HP the legilimens/investigator is gone, hell if I know, but it’s interesting. Seems a strange inclusion to be just color.
Right now, what I’m really puzzling over is why did the death eaters kill Normal Phase?
Anyway. Day 1, I really did suspect Red more than Omi, which is why I didn’t change votes. I’ve been agonizing over the possibility of situation #2, that Red is town and Omi was just trying to encourage the fight, but that just doesn’t feel right to me. I’m going to stick with my gut for now.
Vote Red Skeezix
I voted Omi because I believed that Omi knew Red was scum and was trying to lay groundwork for townie points, without actually voting. With Omi having in fact come up as scum, I am happy to
vote Red Skeezix
Thanks all. It’s been a tiring but rewarding experience so far!
Re the innie/outie question, I’ll have to wait until the cord falls off I think.
Game looks like it’s interesting!
And once again, the Order of the Phoenix stood around, staring at their toes, hoping beyond hope that the magic of “luck” would save them
Short of a no-kill or a dead scum, I think Normal’s death was the best possible outcome from Night 2 and the lost Day. To your list I would add:3. The (voluntary) recruitment aspect of the role could have caused Town havoc with vote and post analysis if Normal decided to join the death eaters late in the game - I’m reminded of her role in Screamers.
Evidently vanilla scum or presumably vanilla scum? The color didn’t say anything about his role. I do agree that ShadowFacts’ idea, with only 3 hours remaining in the Day, would have been a pretty foolish attempt to save a scum buddy however, if it had gathered support, we could have spent several Days trying to find scum among the voters.
This could indicate two different killers but it’s probably just color.
I think this is simply the way death eaters hide among the OotP, from the opening color:
Which matches Omi’s death color:
Why do you think scum, rather than another killing role, killed Normal? based on Oredigger’s comment or something else? I hope he wasn’t messing with us as his comment would also rule out any possible interference (redirections, bus drivers, bodyguards, etc.) leaving a scum kill targeted at a player who had yet to make her first game-related post. As for reasons why, I can only guess she was killed for meta-game reasons as ColdPhoenix only made a few posts in response to the information sharing discussion.
For the record, a final Vote Count with color:
Shadowfacts(0): Chipacabra (114 [del]136[/del])
Tiltawhirl(0): Chipacabra (136 [del]145[/del])
Chipacabra(3): Red Skeezix (139), Meeko (193), Ominokami (199)
Storyteller(0): Chipacabra (145 [del]162[/del])
Red Skeezix(2): ShadowFacts (152), Chipacabra (165)
Freudian(1): Rysto (186)
Ominokami(6): DrainBead (203), JimmyChitwood (206), Oneandonly (214), Guiri (216), Littleplastic (218), Zeriel (223)
Not voting: ColdPhoenix, Freudian Slit, Inner Stickler, Pedescribe, Storyteller, Tiltawhirl
I agree that it’s likely Omi was trying to save a scummy Red from the lynch on Day 1 and, by expressing his suspicions of Red, build up some townie cred if/when Red flipped. This tells us about Omi’s possible motivations but only tells us about Red through association.
I’m going to re-review the alternative scenarios before placing a vote.
**Vote Count:
Red Skeezix(4): Rysto, ShadowFacts, Chipacabra, OnandOnly**
Note that in Omi’s death scene, Mahaloth said this:
I would guess that the Death Eaters are under a polyjuice potion to disguise themselves, but if they die it wears off instantly.
I’ve been assuming that must be the case as well, because of:
Thanks for pointing out the polyjuice thing from the opening text, by the way, guys. I guess I hadn’t read that very closely.
It looks like Skeezix is going to be a runaway favorite here, and I can definitely understand the appeal even though I originally read the Skeezix/Chip brawl as more damning of Chip. It’s interesting that from the point at which Omi rode into battle with that long post #199, Skeezix, who was very active earlier, is nearly absent from the discussion. His only non-fluff post after that point was in response to ShadowFacts’ suggestion that we look at the Omi voters, rather than at Omi:
He’s right about that last point, though.
I wish I was a scum right now. Seriously it’s midday 3, Mahaloth has PMed me twice to get back in the game, I’ve been active in two other games, and not a single person has voted for me?! Not one? Geez, you guys are unusually sheepy.
Especially you, Rysto. Why aren’t you voting for me? It isn’t like you. It’s suspicious.
** Vote Rysto**
Uh, because I honestly had no idea you were in this game?
Besides, I trust the mods to take care of actual lurkers, and players who I have an active suspicion of rank higher on my “to-vote” list than lurkers.
That might be the most poorly conceived voting philosophy I’ve yet had the pleasure to encounter. If it isn’t, it’s the second most poorly conceived.
Restated, pedescribe, what you’re saying is that you’ve been so scummy that anybody who hasn’t voted for you is under suspicion – which is everybody, because as you might not have even noticed, since by your own admission you’ve been refusing to play, we’ve missed a day of voting and already lynched a death eater.
That is such a monstrously absurd rationale that I can’t even bring myself to vote you for it. Good luck with that going forward.
Wait, yes I can, as it turns out. What is my vote, special?
Vote pedescribe
Well, I can’t say I didn’t see this coming based on the way that Oni’s flip. Good for him, I guess since he has provided ample reason for scum and town alike to vote for me. At this point, I’m assuming that he was a newbie scum who was unable to decide between two (what he thought were) town players, although I cannot be sure about chipa. This is based on his argument that scum bussing scum was incomprehensible to him (oni). Perhaps he was trying to set us up for a One-Two punch, but if that was his strategy, then he went at it rather ham handedly.
So onto the part, you’ve all been waiting for, my role!
I’m a pfk, kind of a serial killer/lyncher type. So lynch away, and I’ll eat my hat for disagreeing with sachertorte at the end of Random Mafia. Games where players don’t want to play, suck. Period. LTL is a boring strategy.
In addition, I targetted two players, one for each night, neither kill was successful, ie those players are still alive. I would reveal the targets but at this point due to oni getting me lynched, I’m thinking “Fuck scum, I’m not going to possibly out any town powers.” (I was not told why my kills failed.)
Arrivederci!
PS: Thanks to those who actively participated on Day 1, whatever your alignments may be, for playing the game.
PPS:
Also, for possibly delibrately not playing the game:
vote Pedescribe