!!!
Exclamation points are not as expressive as you’d think they are.
Oh, one other thing: Whenever the Scum team hits several power roles in a row, people always start thinking that the Scum must have an investigator. But just like with a town investigator, a scum investigator needs time to work. On the first investigation, a Scum investigator will either find a vanilla or a non-vanilla. If e finds something valuable, then the Scum team may well kill that player at the first opportunity, but it’s just as hard for the investigator to stumble across someone valuable as it is for the killer. And if the investigator finds a vanilla or someone else low-value (a weak power role, or possibly even someone who would hurt Town) on the first try, then all that tells the Scum is “kill someone other than that person”, and their chances are only slightly better than normal.
In real life, when Scum hit a lot of power roles, it mostly just means that they’re picking up hints that someone is non-vanilla, or even more likely, that they’re just lucky. Note that either of these would account for them hitting Snape (genuinely not vanilla, and luck can explain anything), whereas them having an investigator wouldn’t cast any light there (if they’d known, that’d be the last person they’d kill, just in case he decided to join them).
Maybe in most cases, but Town hit a scum right off. Even though Potter was killed shortly after, Snape would want to get on the winning side. He did get killed next though (didn’t he? I should check back). So maybe.
In order
Omi-D1 lynch (Dolohov)
Drain Bead-N1 kill (Potter)
Normal Phase-N2 kill (Snape)
Red-D3 lynch (Voldemort)
Rysto-N3 kill (Dumbledore)
Emphasis is mine. Tied at the very least is not the same as is the most expendable. Your original point as I understand it was that Skeezix gave himself up for lynch because his godfather status was worthless, and thus he was the most expendable. If all you’re saying is that he’s as expendable as other, entirely vanilla, scum, what was your explanation for his behavior in the first place?
**Vote Count:
LittlePlasticNinja(1): ShadowFacts**
Shadow’s vote on Ped stands on Ninja unless he unvotes it.
Day ends Thursday at Noon Eastern.
Chronos, only a few posts ago you were postulating a scum team with a Godfather, Roleblocker, Investigator, and a Vanilla scum. That’s pretty specific. But now you’re saying there’s likely no investigator. Which is it?
Vote Chronos
for contradictory posts and seeming PIS.
First off, I wasn’t saying that that’s the actual scum team we have, just that that’s an example of the sort of variety games have had lately. Second, I wasn’t saying that the Scum team has no investigator, just that the string of power-role kills isn’t very strong evidence that they do.
Quoth Little Plastic Ninja:
Even if the Scum knew for certain that Snape would want to side with Town, it still doesn’t make any sense to target him, since he’d be no more valuable than a vanilla. The only way Scum killing Snape makes sense is if they didn’t know what he was (which could mean no Scum investigator, or could mean the Scum investigator just hadn’t gotten around to him yet).
Can you explain where you see seeming PIS in more detail, please? I’m trying to understand your vote better. Thanks.
Well right now I’d have to say the giant red flag as pointed out by Jimmy Chitwood is his earlier statement that the godfather is the most expendable. It reads to me like someone who knows the scum team only had one vanilla and forgot that for the rest of us, it’s only a supposition.
Then there’s this:
It just sounds like he either knows that LPN is heading down a fruitless path and doesn’t want to spend time discussing something he knows is pointless or that she’s onto something and he’d like to redirect the conversation.
I don’t know that LPN is heading down a fruitless path, but I sure can’t see how it would be fruitful. If there were evidence that, say, Nymphadora Tonks were in the game, then that would be valuable information, since that player could name-claim and either be (semi-)confirmed, or flush out a counter-claim. But evidence for the existence of Fenrir, even assuming we accept that, doesn’t really give us anything, since nobody’s going to counter-claim an evil claim.
If I were making the game I’d actually make Fenrir a recruiter. He could bite people and turn them into werewolves, after all. If I were scum I’d want that sucker to stick around as long as I could. Aren’t there scum roles that can do that?
Scum recruitment mechanics are not unheard-of, but two more-or-less ordinary Scum plus one recruiter would be a huge amount of power, especially if the Scum can recruit and Night-kill on the same Night (and if they can’t do both on the same Night, then they should have been choosing recruitment instead of kills). Plus, a lot of folks consider recruitment of any sort to be an inherently bad game mechanic, since it can punish good play, or reward bad play (consider, for instance, a Town player who single-handedly deals Scum blow after blow, and then, just before Town is about to win, gets recruited to the Scum: That player would lose the game because of es own good play).
I apologize. I meant that to indicate that I considered yours to be an excellent point, enough to make my eyebrows raise. None of Chronos’ backtracking and meandering since has changed my opinion.
I’ll review the whole thing in the morning; it’s too much typing to do tonight.
Apologies if I seem to be meandering, but that’s probably due to being a sub. I haven’t had a chance to fully process the game to date yet, so my contributions thus far have, I admit, been a bit weak. I’ll re-read tomorrow afternoon and hopefully have some more substance then.
Was at my sister’s wedding this weekend so I have fallen behind. I will try to weigh in as soon as i can.
Similarly, I’m going to be gone most of the rest of the week.
Secondly, I haven’t had a lot of time to read this week, but I am keeping up, and I’m finding that Chronos’ statements about scum team makeup are/were a little too matter-of-fact and specific for me to be comfortable with.
vote Chronos
vote Chronos
For the Godfather as vanilla being “most” expendable. This obviously presupposes no other vanilla’s and seems to be PIS like
Every time I feel bad for being uncharacteristically* participating in this game, something like this happens.
Did I mention that this game is sideways?
Quick glance at the current wagon, and I am forced to call it that, yet again. Yet, it could be a wagon, today, for good reasons. I need to look at the Chronos case in depth a bit more. The death of Potter, and win-cons based on that have obviously changed. Either a well thought out move, or one based on impulse.
The votes for this game seem to be all wagons, all in the fast lane. I just wonder if they aren’t also in the Scum HOV / Carpool lane, 2+ scum needed to travel in it.
**
*Uncharacteristically, as in, I usually rock the post count, regardless of role. This game, not so much. Now that I have said that, I expect votes to pile on me. **