Harry Potter Mafia

The Game Room
461

Without question it was an insane vote. Completely batshit.

That said, what we’ve found out since was that pedescribe was on his way out the door and probably not very engaged. And your further analysis isn’t sitting well with me.

I’ll paraphrase your narrative: train is rolling on scum leader Skeezix. Scum pedescribe sees this and makes an insane vote to take a bullet for scum leader. Scum leader Skeezix… claims a third party killing role and more or less begs for a lynch, which wish is granted.

Given that we’ve accepted the fact of pedescribe’s wackiness, what about this narrative lends itself to a conclusion that it was scummy wackiness rather than the kind of wackiness that doesn’t have a reasonable motivation? It didn’t take any heat off of Skeezix. Even if it had, that was quickly rendered moot by Skeezix inviting the heat on himself, so at the very least there’s no chance that they were acting in concert. It’s just not a sequence of events that makes any sense, which in my view is amply accounted for by saying that pedescribe did a silly thing.

One little niggling point, still speaking of pedescribe’s vote:

[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
Is there a town motivation for that vote? None that I can think of. Was pedescribe just being lazy and tossing a vote out there for no reason? Maybe, but that’s still anti-town behavior.
[/QUOTE]

So what you’re saying here is that, despite the fact that pedescribe’s been replaced, and even assuming that pedescribe’s vote was just a lazy vote with no purpose to it, you’re still OK lynching the replacement player for it. In other words, you’re comfortable voting for LPN because of pedescribe’s anti-town but not necessarily scum-motivated playstyle? That justification scares me. It’s one thing to say “that’s still anti-town” when you’re still talking about the same player, but another entirely to think it’s a good idea to punish a replacement for it.

Vote ShadowFacts

462

While I think it’s reasonable to assume pedescribe was being anti-town from your analysis, Shadowfacts, there’s one thing completely lacking in there: any look whatsoever at what I’ve said and done since then. So either I – the complete newb – am a better scum than pede, or I’m more engaged. If pede was disengaged, just dorking around as a lark, then his behavior doesn’t have much to do with me.

I’m not changing my vote yet, but I’m giving you one heck of a squint.

463

Boy am I shocked to get your vote, Jimmy. Shocked, I tell you!

And while I appreciate you re-stating what I said in your own words (to further everyone’s understanding, I am sure), I think I stated it the way I wanted the first time. What I said was this:

Not this:

[QUOTE=Jimmy]
So what you’re saying here is that, despite the fact that pedescribe’s been replaced, and even assuming that pedescribe’s vote was just a lazy vote with no purpose to it, you’re still OK lynching the replacement player for it. In other words, you’re comfortable voting for LPN because of pedescribe’s anti-town but not necessarily scum-motivated playstyle?
[/QUOTE]

464

And since we’re chatting, Jimmy, I’d like to ask you a question about this previous post of yours:

Would you mind telling us what the reasons you stated above are, and where you stated them? Are you talking about post 406? Because that looks more like a question than a reason to me, but I’ve been wrong before. Thanks!

465

I honestly do not know what you’re trying to get across here. I have a vendetta against you, or something? I posed my question in bad faith just a pretext for voting for you because I hate you? I’m a terrible player and only a terrible player would vote for you?

You also said what I quoted in that post – the quote which I referred to when I said “here” as a convenient means of demonstrating exactly what I was talking about, which is not what you quoted. I am aware of the point about the scum motivation you found, and I addressed it, and you skipped what I had to say about it. In fact, I specifically asked about it and you didn’t answer, which is funny because it seems like you think I’m asking questions for some other reason than to find out the answer. Anyway, the question of pedescribe’s scum motivation is one point.

As a separate point, I said that I didn’t like your saying that even if it was just a lazy vote, “it’s still anti-town behavior” apart from whether it’s scum behavior, because that’s an unfair point to raise against LPN, who can’t be answerable to that unless “act weird and don’t help town” was part of the role. The Trelawney role, maybe. But the point is that you did say what I said you did, or at least you left it open to that interpretation. And I’m tremendously grateful for the clarification.

Yes, #406 is the thing about Chronos that I’m referring to. Specifically the fact that “most expendable” is not the same as “at the very least tied,” and that changing from the one to the other is a pretty drastic retrenchment. And that is the reason that I’m comfortable with Chronos as a candidate for lynch. You’re right that I didn’t say as much about it as I suggested I had; I generally end up composing plenty of posts that I never submit in these games, and sometimes I have an incorrect sense of how much I’ve said about a particular point. You’re also right that I was asking a question, but it wasn’t answered, and in the absence of a satisfactory explanation, it stands as a decent reason to lynch.

466

You’re not helping your case LPN. I thought Shadow’s analysis was interesting, and I for one am not assuming random bored vote.

467

NETA Its too early. I’m conflating Jimmy & LPN. Need to go through this chain again.

468

…I just wrote this big long cranky five-thirty-in-the-morning post about how this makes no sense until I read your next post, so I didn’t submit it.

But I’m keeping it handy in case you still think I am being scummy. :stuck_out_tongue:

469

I skipped some of your post because I wanted to get right to the point where you put words in my mouth (“So what you’re saying here is…”) and then voted for me for them. But I’m happy to go over the whole thing again. In fact, I’ll just quote myself and then discuss:

[QUOTE=Me]
So, knowing now that Skeezix was Voldemort and leader of the scum, does pedescribe’s vote make sense? It does, to me, from a Scum standpoint: Scum Leader is catching serious heat, so Scum Non-Leader tries to take a bullet by offering up one of the most ludicrous votes in the history of mafia. Is there a town motivation for that vote? None that I can think of. Was pedescribe just being lazy and tossing a vote out there for no reason? Maybe, but that’s still anti-town behavior.

So, my vote is staying on LPN, substitution aside, because I see plenty of scum motivation in pede’s vote and no town motivation, and roles don’t change with substitutions.
[/QUOTE]

So, to sum up:

  1. I see strong scum motivation in **pedescribe’s **crazy vote.
  2. I see no town motivation in pedescribe’s crazy vote.
  3. There is a chance pedescribe may have been a lazy and anti-town townie, but that does not trump #1.

Now, what you are doing is focusing solely on #3, but I’m not voting LPN because of #3, I’m voting for #1. I hope that’s clear.

OK, you might say, but I eviscerated your analysis of #1 with this:

[QUOTE=Jimmy]
I’ll paraphrase your narrative: train is rolling on scum leader Skeezix. Scum pedescribe sees this and makes an insane vote to take a bullet for scum leader. Scum leader Skeezix… claims a third party killing role and more or less begs for a lynch, which wish is granted.

Given that we’ve accepted the fact of pedescribe’s wackiness, what about this narrative lends itself to a conclusion that it was scummy wackiness rather than the kind of wackiness that doesn’t have a reasonable motivation? It didn’t take any heat off of Skeezix. Even if it had, that was quickly rendered moot by Skeezix inviting the heat on himself, so at the very least there’s no chance that they were acting in concert. It’s just not a sequence of events that makes any sense, which in my view is amply accounted for by saying that pedescribe did a silly thing.
[/QUOTE]

(bolding mine)
You are right about one thing: my analysis doesn’t work under the assumption that Scum planned it together the way it went down. If Scum can talk during the day and were discussing what to do about the heat Red was taking, then I agree with you. But if you assume that scum cannot coordinate during the Day, then I think it holds up completely fine. In that scenario, votes are coming fast and furious for Red, he plans to claim in a last ditch effort to seem not-scum; at the same time, wacky pedescribe comes out of left field with the bullet-taking plan I already described. Neither plan works (thanks in large part to the air-tight case Rysto and I put together against Red, I might add). :smiley:

470

Do you think Red had no idea that he was going to be under pressure once Omi flipped scum and only realized he was in trouble when votes started coming in?

471

Ha. Well, not so much “eviscerated” as “didn’t entirely ignore,” but mostly yes. I don’t think I’m twisting your words or voting for you on an unbalanced reading of what you said, and I’m not trying to use #3 to throw dirt over #1. And it is clear now what you meant by #3.

The thing is, my whole response to #1 is that I just don’t see the strong scum motivation - not a rational one, anyway. It’s so bonkers to me that pedescribe’s vote would have been designed to help the scum that I can’t get on board with the idea. The point about day communication is well-taken, but you would have to think that the scum, especially after the double-night discussion that would have resulted from offing HP, would have discussed the likelihood that Omi’s doomed attempts to protect Skeezix would result in a lot of pressure on Skeezix right out of the gate. In which case a scum pedescribe either didn’t follow the plan, or the plan was to do whatever it is that he was doing.

Speaking of which, OaOW, or anybody else really - is it just me? Is it plausible that, with one scum under heavy fire, another scum would make one of the most insane one-off votes imaginable, and then disappear again and quit the game after the original scum came out with something like a confession to ensure his own lynch in any event? Or is it more plausible that a town somebody would make a crazy, lazy vote for no good reason, and scum would return to that vote later to try to get an easy lynch out of the deal?

472

**Vote Count:

LittlePlasticNinja(1): ShadowFacts

Chronos(8): Inner Stickler, Zeriel, OneandOnly, Storyteller, Guiri, LittlePlasticNinja, Meeko, Chipacabra

Storyteller(1): Chronos

ShadowFacts(1): Jimmy
**

**Day ends in a little less than 23 hours. **

473

Neither hypothesis fills me with certainty…

474

Y’know, it’s hard for me to get enthusiastic about this game right now, since there’s no realistic chance of me not dying in about twelve hours. But since you’ll find out then that yes, I really am Town, and since I’ll win (or lose) with you guys whether you believe me right now or not, I figured I should try to get some thoughts down.

First off, although we’ve already gotten a wealth of information from Omi’s Day 1 behavior (we ended up nabbing two Scum out of it, after all), I think there’s still some more there.

For starters: Chip and Shadow were both voting for Red on Day 1. In fact, slightly over a day before the deadline, those two votes had Red still in the lead. When Red did fall out of the lead, it was first to Chip (whose votes mostly came from Scum, at least two out of three), and then of course to Omi. All of this adds up to making it very likely that Chip is Town: The investigator was not yet dead at this point, so Red should still have been regarded as valuable by the Scum, and I have a hard time believing that Scum would have put him in that much danger of a lynch on Day 1, plus the fact that the Scum were clearly trying to get Chip lynched.

Also on Day 1, we see that the wagon on Omi was started by Drain and Jimmy. Both of them gave new distinct reasons for their votes, which I think does them credit (in retrospect, clearly deserved for Drain at least). All the other folks who voted for Omi basically just agreed with Drain’s and/or Jimmy’s reasons, which is a much easier way for Scum to hide, so I’m counting the other votes in that wagon as basically null tells.

On Day 2, Rysto (now known to be Town) gets the ball rolling on Red, followed very shortly by Shadow, for basically the same reasons but in more detail. Chip (who voted for Red on Day 1, remember) carries over his previous reasons, and Wanderers agrees with Rysto’s and Shadow’s case. These are the four whose votes were in place when Red claimed Serial Killer. Any votes after that point tell us basically nothing, but those four might mean something. As I pointed out before (in my post speculating on Red’s reasons), I think there might be some bussing in there. If there is, it looks like it was orchestrated by Shadow, so I think he’s the most suspect out of those three, but of course it’s not a given that there was any bussing there at all, so that’s only a suspicion.

Moving on to other matters: I can’t stress enough that people shouldn’t forget about Storyteller’s Mason claim. Until the other purported Mason claims in support of him, his claim should not be considered to give him any credit at all. And I still can’t see any Town motivation for one of two genuine Masons to claim alone early in a game while under no suspicion and with the protector dead, but I can see Scum motivation. Please, everyone, keep a close eye on him.

I should be on shortly before the deadline tomorrow, and if it looks like there’s any chance at all of a self-defense vote working, I’ll try, but if there hasn’t been a huge change by then, then my vote will remain on Storyteller, futile though it may be. It’s always been my style to base my votes on hard information as much as possible, rather than hunches, and all I really have on anyone else is hunches.

475

Actually, let me sum that up:
Chipacabra: Strongly lean Town
One and Only Wanderers and Jimmy Chitwood: Lean Town
ShadowFacts: Weakly lean Scum until and unless we end up with an explanation for Red’s behavior that doesn’t involve bussing, in which case he’s lean Town
Storyteller: Strongly lean Scum until and unless there’s a verifying Mason claim

476

Heh, well now that the World Cup is over I guess I can come back to this. Don’t suppose any of you want to put on a Quidditch match for me?

I apologize ahead of time if the following is hard to follow, I’m mostly just me thinking out loud.

-In 382, Chipacabra wonders if leader + occlumens means two separate powers. No, say I, he’s Voldemort, of course he’s the leader. And you’ll note that occlumens is a rewording of Maha’s original description for Red (as **Story **points out in 424). I made the same assumption as Chronos, though, so I don’t agree with you, **Story – **further, I agree with **Chronos **that all the votes for Red are pretty much a null tell (after he cried wolf). Back to 382, I’m not seeing much of a slip in ‘we,’ just a turn of phrase.

-Regarding, 385/389: Sorry, Shadow, I’m not seeing the case against Story. Maybe I haven’t played with/against him enough. I will say that his case against Chronos today is kinda iffy, though (more below).

[QUOTE=LPN in 396]
<snip> But KNOWING they aren’t vanilla scum is interesting. We’ve had one so far: Omi aka Dolohov. That indicates the possibility that there could be more, but it seems like there have been a few special roles out there. Red was a godfather. Drain Bead could read minds and was the Chosen One, for as much good as that did him. Normal could switch sides. Moody (cough) was vanilla town, but there seem to be a LOT of specials out there. I’m willing to bet there’s someone on scumside who can read minds since their aim has been damn good. </snip>
[/quote]
Either there’s a lot of power roles, or the scum have been lucky. Don’t see the conclusion that the rest can’t be vanilla.

-In 427, Chronos defends himself. I think his arguments here are all very plausible, however I agree with Story in that he’s twisting what Story said, at the end. That does concerns me a bit.

-With regards to 440, LPN, I think that the (color) idea is that the baddies have killed members of the OotP and assumed their likeness using the polyjuice potion. Your follow-up explanation in 444makes no sense to me. On another note, though, this feels like a bussing vote (if Chronos flips scum): why exactly are you comfortable voting for Chronos [440]? Of course, half the votes for Chronos feel like people pushing him in front of a rapidly moving vehicle. I guess no one is really finding anyone else suspicious. Alternatively, I’m being dense with regards to Chronos.

[QUOTE=**Chronos **in 430]
In fact I’m pretty sure that George Weasley isn’t in the game, since I think storyteller is lying. But really, if Fred is one member of a two-member masonry, who else would it be?
[/quote]
What makes you think George isn’t in the game?? More to the point, what makes you think **story **would have this knowledge?

[QUOTE=Chronos in 439]
<snip> I think that what happened is that the Scum all got cover identities (this is supported by the fact that Voldemort appeared to be Luna in the death-scene, and is one standard way of preventing a name-claim from breaking the game), […] </snip>
[/quote]
Omi had no cover. Storyteller as scum (with his claim) only makes sense if a) Mahaloth made a mistake and Omi’s cover was George (and since Maha didn’t answer my question, I could see Story going for this) or b) Omi didn’t have a cover for some reason (why??). Story does say we don’t have all the information but . . .
Regardless of Storyteller’s allegiance, if b*)* is true, I think we should all give up our names. The only possible downside I can see is that the more recognizable names will be more powerful (HP, Dumbledore) and thus be a target. On the other hand, assuming that case b*)* means all vanilla or possibly all non-Voldemort scum don’t have covers, those who reveal their names later would be more suspect.

-Pede was just being weird. I’m not seeing any scumminess, but I see no harm in Shadow’s analysis, **Jimmy **and I’m not really sure why you voted for him.

-Other thoughts:
–I’m possibly too lenient and I’ll never see a scum even if one is stabbing me in the face.
–Meeko, I’m still suspicious of you.
–LPN, Jimmy, you’re on my short list and I think it’s a bit odd that **Inner Stickler **brought up the stuff against Chronos and then kinda dropped it, so I suppose he’s on it, too.
–I see no reason for a scummy **OaOW **to make post 466, unless he’s bored. (I hope I’m not killing you like I did Rysto, yesterday. Yes, you all can blame me; it’s not ‘cause Rysto is a good player or anything.)

On preview, Chronos, if you flip town, I will look at Storyteller because, as I said above, I do think his case against you is kind of week and I think his analysis convinced/confirmed a bunch of votes towards you. Having said that, I see no pressing reason not to lynch you (since nobody* is really all that suspicious to me) and I think we will gain a little bit of info if we do. Sorry to see you go.
*Polyphemus votes nobody! (gosh I’m lame)

477

Excuse me? What did I drop? I made my case, his responses haven’t satisfied me, and other people have agreed and extended said case. I don’t think I’ve dropped anything and I don’t appreciate the smear.

478

That was a weird smeary post, wasn’t it?

Your short list comprises four names who were barely or not at all featured in the rest of your analysis, and you aren’t even voting. That’s not exactly the stuff of highest accountability.

479

As usual, I have morning meetings on Thursday that will keep me away until the Day ends, so I’m going to throw some final thoughts in before that happens. First, despite the fact that he is pretty much destined to swing at this point, the post above by Chronos suggests to me even more that he’s Town.

I also agree strongly with Chronos about this:

We have a rare, rare luxury in this game in having lynched 2 scum out of 2 chances. Besides the obvious benefits of advancing our win condition, what this does is give little pockets of certainty around which we can draw conclusions. Catching Omi on Day One led directly to Red’s lynch on Day Two because knowing Omi’s alignment allowed us to draw some probable conclusions. I can’t stress how unusual this is, since at this time Town is more often than not still flailing around in the dark. We need to continue to take advantage of this knowledge by looking back at the Days One and Three in context. It may not always be as obvious as Omi’s bad gambit, but it’s there, and let’s not forget it.

Obviously, I disagree with Chronos on this point. :smiley: I came out against Red on Day One and was instrumental to his lynch on Day Three. If you want to second guess yourself into thinking that makes me more likely to be scum, I can’t stop you, but that’s about as good a voting record as you can get and I think it suggests that I am Town. :cool:

I agree with the “not forgetting” part of this, and I do not consider story as confirmed or even likely Town. I still have some suspicions and I’m not swallowing his claim hook, line and sinker. That said, we need to wait and see how this claim shakes out before voting for him. There’s plenty of other people to look at before we rush to a claimed mason lynch.

480

**Again, the Order of the Phoenix had little to say and spent most of the Day in deep thought, or at least sharing little of their thoughts.

“I have a suspicion, but I don’t know if I should say it,” said Chronos.

“Well, having a suspicion and constructing any argument is enough for us to assume you are a Death Eater,” jumped quite a few wizards.

Chronos, looking confused, said “Wait? What?”

“Kill him!” cried the crowd of wizards.

They encircled him and together, raising their wands, said:

AVADA KEDAVRA

Chronos dropped to the floor, dead.

His face did not change. He was who they thought he was, at least before they accused him.**

Chronos is dead. He was Horace Slughorn, a member of the Order of the Phoenix. He was a member of the Order of the Phoenix and had no additional powers beyond voting daily for the lynch. **
**
It is now Night Four. Day Five begins on Saturday at Noon Eastern.